Looking For A Compelling Reason to Pick Derby Winner
 

I am getting the Kentucky Derby fever. I picked the last three winners, and it would have been four in a row had Afleet Alex run the type of race he was capable of in 2005. Not bad considering that was my first year of becoming a fan of the sport and betting winners in some of the big TC races including the Triple Crown and Breeders Cup Classic. In total I have bet and won 7 winners and lost 4. Not bad for a newbie. Any way, I didn’t come on here to parade my winning record.

To try and keep my Derby streak alive, I’ve been doing my research on who I might like for next month’s Run For The Roses. This time last week, Quality Road, I Want Revenge, and The Pamplemousse were my top three picks. In just a few days, Quality Road has a quarter crack, The Pamplemousse is out for a while, and while I Want Revenge finished the Wood impressively, he had a very unimpressive start to the race. I’m not discounting him but feel a lot less confident about his chances of winning. Shades of last year’s Belmont are haunting me regarding Quality road's injury..

So at this point, I am now further from a pick I can feel good about than I was even several weeks ago. My next tier is Friesan Fire, Muskat Man, and Chocolate Candy. I’m curious if anyone has a favorite and compelling reason why as to which horse might win The Kentucky Derby.

If you liked I Want Revenge before the Wood you should love him now.

Paul

I wait until the post positions are drawn and make my choice based on who appears to be the best value.

3 syllable name

No offense, but whoever you pick will be an auto toss for me....4 in a row, no way.

i've met a lot of women at the track. in the last year i've gotten laid 15 times after meeting someone at the track and only failed to bed 2 i had any interest in. after last years santa anita derby, i did a pair of 22 year old twins. not bad for a guy that turns 52 next month. but anyway, i didn't come on here to parade my incredible sexual prowess.

But that wasn't my point....

I love Friesan Fire, and others, but IWR is the horse baby! 20 horses inthe Derby, who can stop, start and move better than IWR?

:tro: :tro:

I usually find making money the most compelling reason to pick the Derby winner. Bragging rights are good too. Personal satisfaction? The reasons are literally endless.

To each his own.

Viagra or Ambien?

Deities have an unfair advantage.

--Dunbar

Who'll ride IWR in the Derby? If J.R. is not riding Quality Road could he ride IWR? I hope not because J.R. hasn't done very well in past Derby rides.

Why would JR ride IWR and not Talamo?

Best rider available maybe? I don't know just saying some trainers use different riders.

I think Talamo is young, but can ride just as good as anyone out there right now imo. I think he did a very nice job on Revenge staying patient and not getting worried and rushing him up to soon, I see no reason why they won't stick with the kid.

Barring injury, there is zero chance they switch jockeys at this point.

I agree, I know that every time I see a horse break slow, I write him off forever. Even if he hasn't had any semblance of a gate problem before.

I've picked every Derby winner since World War II. Not bad for a bullshitter.

And Talamo is riding IWR.

Just out of curiousity, what horse did J.R. ride in the Derby that should of won but didn't because of his ride? Why would he be any less of a rider in a Derby than any other race?

Built for Pleasure would have won by open lengths with someone else aboard. Exhibit #1:

BUILT FOR PLEASURE, well out in the track while between horses, raced forwardly into the backstretch but was finished before reaching the far turn...would have certainly destroyed Grindstone with a different jockey aboard.

Case closed.