Offshore Ky Derby futures

[Dunbar]

Here are the best Derby future odds offered (as of today) by two offshore sportsbooks, Bookmaker ("Book") and 5Dimes ("5D").

Odds are "to 1"

NYQUIST 4.0 Book
EXAGGERATOR 7.1 Book
MOHAYMEN 8.5 5D
DESTIN 12.5 5D
MOR SPIRIT 13.5 5D
GUN RUNNER 14.9 Book
BRODYS CAUSE 15.0 5D
CREATOR 16.0 5D
MY MAN SAM 22.5 5D
SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS 25.0 5D
OUTWORK 25.1 5D
MO TOM 30.0 5D
WHITMORE 30.0 5D
LANI 33.0 5D
SHAGAF 37.5 5D
DANZING CANDY 40.5 Book
MAJESTO 45.0 5D
TROJAN NATION 52.5 Book
TOMS READY 56.4 5D
OSCAR NOMINATED 60.5 Book
FELLOWSHIP 60.5 Book
ADVENTIST 85.5 Book
CHERRY WINE 95.7 Book
LAOBAN 125.5 Book
DAZZLING GEM 152.5 Book

Even with the also-eligibles included, those odds make about a 14% takeout line.

[Dunbar]

I took a look at Bovada, and they had better odds on 8 of the horses than either 5Dimes or Bookmaker. So here's a revised list with the best odds from all 3 sportsbooks.

NYQUIST 4.0 Book
EXAGGERATOR 8.0 BOV
MOHAYMEN 10.0 BOV
DESTIN 14.0 BOV
MOR SPIRIT 18.0 BOV
GUN RUNNER 14.9 Book
BRODYS CAUSE 15.0 5D
CREATOR 20.0 BOV
MY MAN SAM 25.0 BOV
SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS 25.0 5D
OUTWORK 25.1 5D
MO TOM 30.0 5D
WHITMORE 33.0 BOV
LANI 33.0 BOV, 5D
SHAGAF 40.0 BOV
DANZING CANDY 40.5 Book
MAJESTO 45.0 5D
TROJAN NATION 52.5 Book
TOMS READY 56.4 5D
OSCAR NOMINATED 60.5 Book
FELLOWSHIP 60.5 Book
ADVENTIST 85.5 Book
CHERRY WINE 95.7 Book
LAOBAN 125.5 Book
DAZZLING GEM 152.5 Book

These odds are like a 7% takeout.

[cakes44]

Love the odds on some of those closers!

[RHT2004]

25-1 on Outwork seems high. I was thinking 15-1.

[Dunbar]

Here's an updated list from this morning's odds. The rightmost odds are the most recent.

Horses whose odds have dropped are in red. Horses whose best odds have risen are in blue. (I didn't count Nyquist's drop from 4-1 to 3.99-1!

The only major change was Danzing Candy's.

NYQUIST 4.0 Book; 3.99 Book
EXAGGERATOR 8.0 BOV; 8.0 5D, BOV
MOHAYMEN 10.0 BOV
DESTIN 14.0 BOV
MOR SPIRIT 18.0 BOV
GUN RUNNER 14.9 Book; 14.27 Book
BRODYS CAUSE 15.0 5D; 13.5 5D
CREATOR 20.0 BOV
MY MAN SAM 25.0 BOV
SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS 25.0 5D; 22.5 5D
OUTWORK 25.1 5D; 27 5D
MO TOM 30.0 5D
WHITMORE 33.0 BOV; 35.0 5D
LANI 33.0 BOV, 5D; 35.0 5D
SHAGAF 40.0 BOV
DANZING CANDY 40.5 Book; 25.0 5D, BOV
MAJESTO 45.0 5D; 40 5D, BOV
TROJAN NATION 52.5 Book
TOMS READY 56.4 5D
OSCAR NOMINATED 60.5 Book
FELLOWSHIP 60.5 Book
ADVENTIST 85.5 Book
CHERRY WINE 95.7 Book
LAOBAN 125.5 Book
DAZZLING GEM 152.5 Book

[ScottJ]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

25-1 on Outwork seems high. I was thinking 15-1.

Was originally thinking the same thing. However, combine the fact that the Wood Memorial just has not produced any big Derby players in the last decade and Outwork just beat Trojan Nation (81-1) with a gap of three back to the rest, this was probably just another Wood with some nice Grade 3 horses.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by ScottJ

Was originally thinking the same thing. However, combine the fact that the Wood Memorial just has not produced any big Derby players in the last decade and Outwork just beat Trojan Nation (81-1) with a gap of three back to the rest, this was probably just another Wood with some nice Grade 3 horses.

Realizing that I've been on this horse since his return to the track, I'm admittedly a bit biased.

That being said, Wood winners always get ridiculously overbet in the Derby, regardless of it's recent history of producing duds. Coupled with the fact that he's a Pletcher prospect, and that visually he towers over this field and has improved each time out, I think 15-1 would be generous - and believe he will be closer to the 10/12-1 range if not lower by post.

[Dunbar]

Here's an updated list with current odds. The rightmost odds are the most recent.

(The terms are different now at Bovada and 5Dimes. Those two will refund the bet if the horse doesn't run. 5Dimes also specifies that Nyquist and Exaggerator have to run for the bet to count.)

Horses whose odds have dropped are in red. Horses whose best odds have risen are in blue.

Odds on Outwork and Tom's Ready dropped sharply since my last post. Creator and Danzing Candy, also had large drops, despite their poor post draws.

NYQUIST 4.0 Book; 3.99 Book; 3.45 Book
EXAGGERATOR 8.0 BOV; 8.0 5D, BOV; 8.26 Book
MOHAYMEN 10.0 BOV; 10.16 Book
DESTIN 14.0 BOV; 14.16 Book
MOR SPIRIT 18.0 BOV; 14.16 Book
GUN RUNNER 14.9 Book; 14.27 Book; 12.16 Book
BRODYS CAUSE[/color] 15.0 5D; 13.5 5D; 14.16 Book
CREATOR 20.0 BOV; 14.16 Book
MY MAN SAM 25.0 BOV; 20.0 BOV & 5D
SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS[/color] 25.0 5D; 22.5 5D; 20.0 BOV
OUTWORK 25.1 5D; 27 5D; 18.11 Book
MO TOM 30.0 5D; 23.20 Book
WHITMORE[/color] 33.0 BOV; 35.0 5D; 28.0 5D
LANI 33.0 BOV, 5D; 35.0 5D;
SHAGAF 40.0 BOV; 30.0 5D
DANZING CANDY[/color] 40.5 Book; 25.0 5D
MAJESTO 45.0 5D; 40 5D, BOV; 48.50 Book
TROJAN NATION 52.5 Book; 60.5 Book
TOMS READY 56.4 5D; 35.0 5D
OSCAR NOMINATED 60.5 Book; 66.0 BOV