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#1
04-08-2016, 09:05 PM
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4/9: Aqueduct (5th-11th); Keeneland (5th-11th); Santa Anita (8th-12th)
Enormous day of racing across the country Saturday and remarkably, all three major venues are being plagued with bad spring weather. In New York, temperatures won't get much past 49 and there is a real chance of snow flurries or freezing rain. In Kentucky, there shouldn't be any precipitation during the raceday, but it will be unpleasantly cold. Here in California, while the heavy rain expected all week has not materialized overall, there remains the likelihood of some rain at some point during the day.
In terms of turf, Aqueduct would appear to be at the greatest risk, while Santa Anita's turf stakes will remain on the turf no matter what. All three main tracks would figure to be tight and more prone to speed. As discussed all week, the Wood and Blue Grass both feel like they have openings for fresh Derby Trail faces to emerge with Matt King Coal & Adventist in NY and Star Hill & My Man Sam in KY the names with great potential. Bay Shore-Madison-Wood-Blue Grass Pick 4 should draw a big pool and out pay the parlay. Should be a great day of racing despite the potentially inclement conditions. Enjoy it wherever you are! AQUEDUCT POST-SCRATCHES 5th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 6.5f (P3, DD) Terrific sprint ALW with 7 of the 9 looking eligible; only Rectify and Still Krz look a bit compromised for the win.. Most Likely: #6 May Be a Diamond 4-1 6th Best Value: #1 Power Nap 20-1 5th Next Best: #7 Hey Bro 8-1 2nd Exotics Use: #4 Knuckle Curve 10-1 7th 6th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (G/S, P3, DD) Most Likely: #2 Tapitry 4-1 WON ($8.40) Next Best: #6 Off Limits 5-2 4th Best Value: #4 La Saldana 8-1 2nd Exotics Use: #10 Gap Year 6-1 6th 7th: NY-MSW, 3yo, 6.5f (P6, P3, DD) $17k C/O starts here.. Really well-matched group of NYB boys.. Most Likely: #3 Benevolence 6-1 3rd Next Best: #10 Jet Black 8-1 2nd Best Value: #1 Brooklyn Major 10-1 4th Exotics Use: #11 Mind Your Biscuits 3-1 WON ($8.40) 8th: 121st Gazelle (G2), 3yo-F, 9f (All Stakes P4, P3, DD) Chad Brown pair inside the obvious class. Don't you want the filly that tangled with Cathryn Sophia and acquitted herself pretty well while giving away form? Lewis Bay ran OK off the layoff in that Davona Dale. Dreams to Reality not an insane price to use remembering that this is 9f and just as as much a test for girls as it is boys and that Dilger effective conditioning route-goers.. Most Likely: #2 Lewis Bay 8-5 WON ($5.50) Best Value: #4 Dreams to Reality 20-1 4th Next Best: #1 Clair de Lune 2-1 5th Exotics Use: #5 Royal Obsession 5-1 2nd 9th: 56th Bay Shore (G3), 3yo, 7f (AQU-KEE P4, P3, DD) SCR Note: Awesome Speed & Never Gone South going South to run at LRL.. If no one tackles Unified early, how does he not wire? Cocked and Loaded had difficult winter but trust Rivelli to be ready for assignment here after wisely backing off Blue Grass plan.. Most Likely: #5 Unified 2-1 WON ($4.40) Best Value: #6 Cocked and Loaded 6-1 3rd Next Best: #4 Awesome Gent 3-1 4th 10th: 92nd Wood Memorial (G1), 3yo, 9f (P3, DD) As we talked this week on radio, Matt King Coal the emergent New York player and Outwork may indeed have to be dealt with after resurfacing boldly in Tampa Bay Derby. Have not warmed to Shagaf and don't think he's any better than the 4 I'll use ahead of him.. Most Likely: #6 Matt King Coal 3-1 4th Next Best: #8 Outwork 5-2 WON ($6.80) Best Value: #2 Adventist 10-1 3rd Exotics Use: #5 Flexibility 8-1 7th AQU-KEE Wood-Blue Grass P4 Grid: Leg A) AQU 9: 5 (A), 4-6 (B), 1-7-8 (C) Leg B) KEE 9: 2-7 (A), 3-4-12 (B), 5-9 (C) Leg C) AQU 10: 6-8 (A), - (B), 1-2-5 (C) Leg D) KEE 10: 13-14 (A), 3-4-6-11 (B), - (C) Simple (A+B): 3x5x2x6 = 180 x .50 = $90 $0.50 Pick-4 (2,3,5/2/8/6) Paid $322.10 11th: 116th Carter H. (G1), 4+, 7f (DD) Don't have a lot to impart here as I found this a very difficult race to decipher. Majestic Affair is in form and feels like the horse you can count on to run a race that can win. You can't look at these PP's and say that about everyone.. hence the problem.. Most Likely: #2 Majestic Affair 5-2 7th Next Best: #5 Salutos Amigos 2-1 WON ($5.10) Best Value: #4 Green Gratto 12-1 8th Exotics Use: #7 Calculator 6-1 2nd P4 Grid: 8: 2 (A), - (B), 1-4-5 (C) 9: 5 (A), 4-6 (B), 1-7-8 (C) 10: 6-8 (A), 1-2-5 (B), 4-7 (C) 11: 2-4-5 (A), 6-7-8 (B), 1-3 (C) Simple (A+B): 1x3x5x6 = 90 x .50 = $45 $0.50 Pick-4 (2,6/2,3,5/8/5) Paid $42.62 12th: MSW, 3+, 8.5f-T Best Value: #8 Energy Policy 8-1 2nd Next Best: #2 War Bond Late SCR Exotics Use: #11 Vulcan's Forge 3-1 WON ($5.50) Super Add: #6 Cadera 7-2 3rd KEENELAND POST-SCRATCHES 5th: ALW/N1X, F&M-4+, 9f-T (P3, DD) Most Likely: #2 Sympathy 5-2 2nd Best Value: #10 Nancy Ride 10-1 8th Next Best: #5 Dea 4-1 3rd Exotics Use: #13 Goodyearforroses 15-1 4th 6th: 79th Ashland (G1), 3yo-F, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD) Openly rooting for Cathryn Sophia to keep on going, but be aware that Carina Mia can pick up where she left off at 2.. Most Likely: #3 Cathryn Sophia 1-1 3rd Next Best: #5 Carina Mia 7-5 4th Exotics Use: #4 Rachel's Valentina 3-1 2nd 7th: 30th Commonwealth (G3), 4+, 7f (P3, DD) Best Value: #6 Ami's Flatter 10-1 WON ($10.60) Next Best: #9 Holy Boss 3-1 3rd Exotics Use: #8 Departing 8-1 6th Super Add: #2 Ready for Rye 7-2 2nd 8th: 20th Shakertown (G2), 3+, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD) Most Likely: #1 Power Alert 3-1 8th Best Value: #8 Bye Bye Bernie 6-1 5th Next Best: #10 Undrafted 5-2 WON ($9.00) Exotics Use: #4 Something Extra 6-1 2nd 9th: 15th Madison (G1), F&M-4+, 7f (P3, DD) Best Value: #2 Sheer Drama 12-1 WON ($18.80) Next Best: #7 Dancing House 8-1 6th Exotics Use: #12 Stopchargingmaria 7-2 2nd Super Add: #4 Sunday Rules 8-1 9th 10th: 92nd Blue Grass (G1), 3yo, 9f (DD) Latched on to Star Hill from unveiling at SAR last year and opportunity to make Derby comes down to this spot. Appreciate the return to Jaramillo who has proven himself particularly adept with forward-going horses. Will need to work out a drafting locale passing stands, but prefer a horse that won't be as traffic-compromised in this bulky field. For all the marbles at a square (or better) price. My Man Sam drafts off of the Matt King Coal groundswell and feels like he has potential to be the 'horse to beat' when race gets viewed in retrospect. I'll take the Romans pair (Brody's Cause/Cherry Wine) ahead off the Pletcher trio (Zulu/Donegal Moon/Cards of Stone) as the high profile types. Fun edition of this Lexington meet standard.. Most Likely: #13 Star Hill 10-1 5th Next Best: #14 My Man Sam 10-1 2nd Best Value: #3 Cherry Wine 12-1 3rd Exotics Use: #6 Brody's Cause 4-1 WON ($10.40) AQU-KEE Wood-Blue Grass P4 Grid: Leg A) AQU 9: 5 (A), 4-6 (B), 1-7-8 (C) Leg B) KEE 9: 2-7 (A), 3-4-12 (B), 5-9 (C) Leg C) AQU 10: 6-8 (A), - (B), 1-2-5 (C) Leg D) KEE 10: 13-14 (A), 3-4-6-11 (B), - (C) Simple (A+B): 3x5x2x6 = 180 x .50 = $90 $0.50 Pick-4 (2,3,5/2/8/6) Paid $322.10 P4 Grid: 7: 6 (A), 8-9 (B), 1-2-5 (A) 8: 1-8-10 (A), - (B), 3-4-7-12 (C) 9: 2-7 (A), 4-12 (B), 3-5-9 (C) 10: 13-14 (A), 3-6 (B), 2-4-11 (C) Simple (A+B): 3x3x4x4 = 144 x .50 = $72 $0.50 Pick-4 (6/10/2/6) Paid $1,254.10 P5 Grid: 6: 3 (A), - (B), 4-5 (C) 7: 6 (A), 8-9 (B), 1-2-5 (A) 8: 1-8-10 (A), - (B), 3-4-7-12 (C) 9: 2-7 (A), 4-12 (B), 3-5-9 (C) 10: 13-14 (A), 3-6 (B), 2-4-5-11 (C) Simple (A+B): 1x3x3x4x4 = 144 x .50 = $72 $0.50 Pick-5 (1/6/10/2/6) Paid $261.95 (4OF5) 11th: MSW, 3yo-F, 1m-T (Super Hi-5) Most Likely: #5 Rebelle 7-5 8th Best Value: #4 Edge of the Moon 20-1 6th Next Best: #6 Always Right 6-1 WON ($13.20) Exotics Use: #10 War Baby 10-1 2nd Super/Hi-5: #1 Prudence 10-1 4th P4 Grid: 8: 1-8-10 (A), - (B), 3-4-7-12 (C) 9: 2-7 (A), 4-12 (B), 3-5-9 (C) 10: 13-14 (A), 3-6 (B), 2-4-5-11 (C) 11: 5 (A), 4-6 (B), 1-9-10 (C) Simple (A+B): 3x4x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72 $0.50 Pick-4 (10/2/6/6) Paid $1,074.55 SANTA ANITA POST-SCRATCHES 8th: 79th Santa Anita Derby (G1), 3yo, 9f (P3, DD) Baffert tightening screws on Mor Spirit and it pays off here. Exaggerator and Danzing Candy figure to get tickets validated as well. The fun horse to tinker with for exotics boost is Denman's Call who had old school mile drill that jumps off page in hands of O'Neill who excels with stretch-outs.. Most Likely: #4 Mor Spirit 8-5 2nd Next Best: #2 Exaggerator 4-1 WON ($8.80) Exotics Use: #3 Danzing Candy 9-5 4th Super Add: #1 Denman's Call 15-1 6th 9th: 12th Thunder Road (G3), 4+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD) Most Likely: #12 What a View 5-2 WON ($3.80) Next Best: #7 Twentytwentyvision 5-1 2nd Best Value: #3 Si Sage 12-1 8th Exotics Use: #5 Papacoolpapacool 12-1 9th 10th: 5th Echo Eddie-Cal, 3yo, 6.5f (P3, DD) Most Likely: #6 Tough But Nice 3-1 7th Best Value: #9 Xingtothebone 5-1 3rd Next Best: #2 Tough It Out 4-1 WON ($12.20) Exotics Use: #7 Gold Rush Dancer 9-2 2nd 11th: 5th Evening Jewel-Cal, 3yo-F, 6.5f (DD) Most Likely: #4 Pacific Heat 9-5 WON ($4.40) Best Value: #1 Later My Love 12-1 9th Next Best: #8 Roo's Valentine 10-1 3rd Exotics Use: #5 Be a Lady 4-1 4th 12th: MSW, 3yo, 7f (Super Hi-5) Yes it's been a very long day, but be sure to stay tied on for this nightcap. Down-the-road Stakes horses will emerge from here.. Most Likely: #4 Giant Expectations 5-2 3rd Next Best: #10 American Freedom 3-1 WON ($5.80) Best Value: #7 Street to Indy Late SCR Exotics Use: #9 The Lieutenant 8-1 4th Super/Hi-5: #8 Brown's Baby Boy 6-1 2nd P4 Grid: 9: 12 (A), 7 (B), 3-5-9 (C) 10: 6-9 (A), 2-7 (B), 1-3-4 (C) 11: 1-4-5-8 (A), 2-3 (B), 6-7-9-10 (C) 12: 4-10 (A), 7/SCR (B), 8-9-11 (C) Simple (A+B): 2x4x6x3 = 144 x .50 = $72 $0.50 Pick-4 (2,8,12,14/2/4,6/10) Paid $52.90 Good luck! Steve
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984. Last edited by Kasept : 04-09-2016 at 08:29 PM. 
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#2
04-09-2016, 10:06 AM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#4
04-09-2016, 12:22 PM
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Quote:
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#5
04-09-2016, 12:23 PM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#6
04-09-2016, 05:46 PM
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Multi Mania
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#8
04-09-2016, 07:25 PM
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Great picks, Steve. Hope you got these and some more. Unfortunately you might have to pay for dinner tonight, but these are good problems to have.
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#9
04-09-2016, 10:36 PM
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Steve,
TERRIFIC job of capping as usual. You never cease to amaze with your picks! Cruddy day with the weather, but still some good showings by some Derby hopefuls..Exaggerator was visually VERY impressive. I am hoping for my sake that it was just the conditions that propelled him as I have Mor Spirit in some future's...But oh my.. sure looked good out there today! Thanks for all you do for this great game we all love!!!
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#11
04-10-2016, 12:34 AM
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Guys..
Thanks very much for the kind expressions. Just home from fabulous Dal Rae dinner after the raucous, marathon day. A lot to absorb and review yet.. Was a really fun experience start to finish and I hope the opinions and suggestions paid off for many. Always ideal when they intersect; they did today which makes the effort worthwhile and quashes the frustrating moments..Thanks again!
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#14
04-10-2016, 09:46 PM
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Quote:
Quote:
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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