Derby Trail Forums - 4/9: Aqueduct (5th-11th); Keeneland (5th-11th); Santa Anita (8th-12th)

Enormous day of racing across the country Saturday and remarkably, all three major venues are being plagued with bad spring weather. In New York, temperatures won't get much past 49 and there is a real chance of snow flurries or freezing rain. In Kentucky, there shouldn't be any precipitation during the raceday, but it will be unpleasantly cold. Here in California, while the heavy rain expected all week has not materialized overall, there remains the likelihood of some rain at some point during the day.

In terms of turf, Aqueduct would appear to be at the greatest risk, while Santa Anita's turf stakes will remain on the turf no matter what. All three main tracks would figure to be tight and more prone to speed. As discussed all week, the Wood and Blue Grass both feel like they have openings for fresh Derby Trail faces to emerge with Matt King Coal & Adventist in NY and Star Hill & My Man Sam in KY the names with great potential. Bay Shore-Madison-Wood-Blue Grass Pick 4 should draw a big pool and out pay the parlay. Should be a great day of racing despite the potentially inclement conditions. Enjoy it wherever you are!

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Terrific sprint ALW with 7 of the 9 looking eligible; only Rectify and Still Krz look a bit compromised for the win..

Most Likely: #6 May Be a Diamond 4-1 6th
Best Value: #1 Power Nap 20-1 5th
Next Best: #7 Hey Bro 8-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Knuckle Curve 10-1 7th

6th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Tapitry 4-1 WON ($8.40)
Next Best: #6 Off Limits 5-2 4th
Best Value: #4 La Saldana 8-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #10 Gap Year 6-1 6th

7th: NY-MSW, 3yo, 6.5f (P6, P3, DD)

$17k C/O starts here..

Really well-matched group of NYB boys..

Most Likely: #3 Benevolence 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #10 Jet Black 8-1 2nd
Best Value: #1 Brooklyn Major 10-1 4th
Exotics Use: #11 Mind Your Biscuits 3-1 WON ($8.40)

8th: 121st Gazelle (G2), 3yo-F, 9f (All Stakes P4, P3, DD)

Chad Brown pair inside the obvious class. Don't you want the filly that tangled with Cathryn Sophia and acquitted herself pretty well while giving away form? Lewis Bay ran OK off the layoff in that Davona Dale. Dreams to Reality not an insane price to use remembering that this is 9f and just as as much a test for girls as it is boys and that Dilger effective conditioning route-goers..

Most Likely: #2 Lewis Bay 8-5 WON ($5.50)
Best Value: #4 Dreams to Reality 20-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Clair de Lune 2-1 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Royal Obsession 5-1 2nd

9th: 56th Bay Shore (G3), 3yo, 7f (AQU-KEE P4, P3, DD)

SCR Note: Awesome Speed & Never Gone South going South to run at LRL..

If no one tackles Unified early, how does he not wire? Cocked and Loaded had difficult winter but trust Rivelli to be ready for assignment here after wisely backing off Blue Grass plan..

Most Likely: #5 Unified 2-1 WON ($4.40)
Best Value: #6 Cocked and Loaded 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Awesome Gent 3-1 4th

10th: 92nd Wood Memorial (G1), 3yo, 9f (P3, DD)

As we talked this week on radio, Matt King Coal the emergent New York player and Outwork may indeed have to be dealt with after resurfacing boldly in Tampa Bay Derby. Have not warmed to Shagaf and don't think he's any better than the 4 I'll use ahead of him..

Most Likely: #6 Matt King Coal 3-1 4th
Next Best: #8 Outwork 5-2 WON ($6.80)
Best Value: #2 Adventist 10-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Flexibility 8-1 7th

AQU-KEE Wood-Blue Grass P4 Grid:

Leg A) AQU 9: 5 (A), 4-6 (B), 1-7-8 (C)
Leg B) KEE 9: 2-7 (A), 3-4-12 (B), 5-9 (C)
Leg C) AQU 10: 6-8 (A), - (B), 1-2-5 (C)
Leg D) KEE 10: 13-14 (A), 3-4-6-11 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x5x2x6 = 180 x .50 = $90

$0.50 Pick-4 (2,3,5/2/8/6) Paid $322.10

11th: 116th Carter H. (G1), 4+, 7f (DD)

Don't have a lot to impart here as I found this a very difficult race to decipher. Majestic Affair is in form and feels like the horse you can count on to run a race that can win. You can't look at these PP's and say that about everyone.. hence the problem..

Most Likely: #2 Majestic Affair 5-2 7th
Next Best: #5 Salutos Amigos 2-1 WON ($5.10)
Best Value: #4 Green Gratto 12-1 8th
Exotics Use: #7 Calculator 6-1 2nd

P4 Grid:

8: 2 (A), - (B), 1-4-5 (C)
9: 5 (A), 4-6 (B), 1-7-8 (C)
10: 6-8 (A), 1-2-5 (B), 4-7 (C)
11: 2-4-5 (A), 6-7-8 (B), 1-3 (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x3x5x6 = 90 x .50 = $45

$0.50 Pick-4 (2,6/2,3,5/8/5) Paid $42.62

12th: MSW, 3+, 8.5f-T

Best Value: #8 Energy Policy 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 War Bond Late SCR
Exotics Use: #11 Vulcan's Forge 3-1 WON ($5.50)
Super Add: #6 Cadera 7-2 3rd

KEENELAND

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: ALW/N1X, F&M-4+, 9f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Sympathy 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #10 Nancy Ride 10-1 8th
Next Best: #5 Dea 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #13 Goodyearforroses 15-1 4th

6th: 79th Ashland (G1), 3yo-F, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD)

Openly rooting for Cathryn Sophia to keep on going, but be aware that Carina Mia can pick up where she left off at 2..

Most Likely: #3 Cathryn Sophia 1-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Carina Mia 7-5 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Rachel's Valentina 3-1 2nd

7th: 30th Commonwealth (G3), 4+, 7f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #6 Ami's Flatter 10-1 WON ($10.60)
Next Best: #9 Holy Boss 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Departing 8-1 6th
Super Add: #2 Ready for Rye 7-2 2nd

8th: 20th Shakertown (G2), 3+, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Power Alert 3-1 8th
Best Value: #8 Bye Bye Bernie 6-1 5th
Next Best: #10 Undrafted 5-2 WON ($9.00)
Exotics Use: #4 Something Extra 6-1 2nd

9th: 15th Madison (G1), F&M-4+, 7f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #2 Sheer Drama 12-1 WON ($18.80)
Next Best: #7 Dancing House 8-1 6th
Exotics Use: #12 Stopchargingmaria 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #4 Sunday Rules 8-1 9th

10th: 92nd Blue Grass (G1), 3yo, 9f (DD)

Latched on to Star Hill from unveiling at SAR last year and opportunity to make Derby comes down to this spot. Appreciate the return to Jaramillo who has proven himself particularly adept with forward-going horses. Will need to work out a drafting locale passing stands, but prefer a horse that won't be as traffic-compromised in this bulky field. For all the marbles at a square (or better) price. My Man Sam drafts off of the Matt King Coal groundswell and feels like he has potential to be the 'horse to beat' when race gets viewed in retrospect. I'll take the Romans pair (Brody's Cause/Cherry Wine) ahead off the Pletcher trio (Zulu/Donegal Moon/Cards of Stone) as the high profile types. Fun edition of this Lexington meet standard..

Most Likely: #13 Star Hill 10-1 5th
Next Best: #14 My Man Sam 10-1 2nd
Best Value: #3 Cherry Wine 12-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Brody's Cause 4-1 WON ($10.40)

AQU-KEE Wood-Blue Grass P4 Grid:

Leg A) AQU 9: 5 (A), 4-6 (B), 1-7-8 (C)
Leg B) KEE 9: 2-7 (A), 3-4-12 (B), 5-9 (C)
Leg C) AQU 10: 6-8 (A), - (B), 1-2-5 (C)
Leg D) KEE 10: 13-14 (A), 3-4-6-11 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x5x2x6 = 180 x .50 = $90

$0.50 Pick-4 (2,3,5/2/8/6) Paid $322.10

P4 Grid:

7: 6 (A), 8-9 (B), 1-2-5 (A)
8: 1-8-10 (A), - (B), 3-4-7-12 (C)
9: 2-7 (A), 4-12 (B), 3-5-9 (C)
10: 13-14 (A), 3-6 (B), 2-4-11 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x3x4x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

$0.50 Pick-4 (6/10/2/6) Paid $1,254.10

P5 Grid:

6: 3 (A), - (B), 4-5 (C)
7: 6 (A), 8-9 (B), 1-2-5 (A)
8: 1-8-10 (A), - (B), 3-4-7-12 (C)
9: 2-7 (A), 4-12 (B), 3-5-9 (C)
10: 13-14 (A), 3-6 (B), 2-4-5-11 (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x3x3x4x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

$0.50 Pick-5 (1/6/10/2/6) Paid $261.95 (4OF5)

11th: MSW, 3yo-F, 1m-T (Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #5 Rebelle 7-5 8th
Best Value: #4 Edge of the Moon 20-1 6th
Next Best: #6 Always Right 6-1 WON ($13.20)
Exotics Use: #10 War Baby 10-1 2nd
Super/Hi-5: #1 Prudence 10-1 4th

P4 Grid:

8: 1-8-10 (A), - (B), 3-4-7-12 (C)
9: 2-7 (A), 4-12 (B), 3-5-9 (C)
10: 13-14 (A), 3-6 (B), 2-4-5-11 (C)
11: 5 (A), 4-6 (B), 1-9-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

$0.50 Pick-4 (10/2/6/6) Paid $1,074.55

SANTA ANITA

POST-SCRATCHES

8th: 79th Santa Anita Derby (G1), 3yo, 9f (P3, DD)

Baffert tightening screws on Mor Spirit and it pays off here. Exaggerator and Danzing Candy figure to get tickets validated as well. The fun horse to tinker with for exotics boost is Denman's Call who had old school mile drill that jumps off page in hands of O'Neill who excels with stretch-outs..

Most Likely: #4 Mor Spirit 8-5 2nd
Next Best: #2 Exaggerator 4-1 WON ($8.80)
Exotics Use: #3 Danzing Candy 9-5 4th
Super Add: #1 Denman's Call 15-1 6th

9th: 12th Thunder Road (G3), 4+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #12 What a View 5-2 WON ($3.80)
Next Best: #7 Twentytwentyvision 5-1 2nd
Best Value: #3 Si Sage 12-1 8th
Exotics Use: #5 Papacoolpapacool 12-1 9th

10th: 5th Echo Eddie-Cal, 3yo, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Tough But Nice 3-1 7th
Best Value: #9 Xingtothebone 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Tough It Out 4-1 WON ($12.20)
Exotics Use: #7 Gold Rush Dancer 9-2 2nd

11th: 5th Evening Jewel-Cal, 3yo-F, 6.5f (DD)

Most Likely: #4 Pacific Heat 9-5 WON ($4.40)
Best Value: #1 Later My Love 12-1 9th
Next Best: #8 Roo's Valentine 10-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Be a Lady 4-1 4th

12th: MSW, 3yo, 7f (Super Hi-5)

Yes it's been a very long day, but be sure to stay tied on for this nightcap. Down-the-road Stakes horses will emerge from here..

Most Likely: #4 Giant Expectations 5-2 3rd
Next Best: #10 American Freedom 3-1 WON ($5.80)
Best Value: #7 Street to Indy Late SCR
Exotics Use: #9 The Lieutenant 8-1 4th
Super/Hi-5: #8 Brown's Baby Boy 6-1 2nd

P4 Grid:

9: 12 (A), 7 (B), 3-5-9 (C)
10: 6-9 (A), 2-7 (B), 1-3-4 (C)
11: 1-4-5-8 (A), 2-3 (B), 6-7-9-10 (C)
12: 4-10 (A), 7/SCR (B), 8-9-11 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x6x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

$0.50 Pick-4 (2,8,12,14/2/4,6/10) Paid $52.90

Good luck!
Steve