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#1
03-29-2013, 09:32 PM
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3/30: Gulfstream Park (1st-13th); Fair Grounds (7th-10th)
GULFSTREAM PARK
PRE-SCRATCHES 1st: OC/N1X, 3yo, 8.5f-T/60' (P3, DD) Most Likely: #3 Happy Fella 4-1 5th Next Best: #7 Shining Copper 3-1 WON ($6.40) Best Value: #2 Stormy Len 6-1 4th Exotics Use: #6 Middleburg 5-2 2nd 2nd: 4th Sir Shackleton, 4+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD) Last two winners of this race are here in Travelin Man ('12) and a possibly revitalized Capt. Candyman Can ('11).. Most Likely: #4 Travelin Man 5-2 WON ($6.00) Next Best: #5 SCR Best Value: #2 Capt. Candyman Can 12-1 6th Exotics Use: #6 Bellefire 6-1 5th 3rd: OC/C, 4+, 1m-T/0' (P3, DD) Most Likely: #1 Summer Breezing 6-1 3rd Best Value: #6 Monument Hill 8-1 WON ($11.00) Next Best: #5 Finale 5-2 5th Exotics Use: #3 SCR 4th: 36th Rampart (G3), F&M-4+, 9f (P3, DD) Mike Welsch said on ATR that Marty Wolfson may SCR Call the Ten and Pletcher may SCR Ciao Bella.. Most Likely: #3 Successful Song 9-5 3rd Best Value: #5 Authenticity 6-1 2nd Next Best: #1 Ciao Bella 8-5 WON ($2.80) 5th: MSW, 3yo, 7f (P3, DD) Most Likely: #2 Slan Abhaile 4-1 WON ($4.60) Best Value: #7 Romansh 8-1 4th Next Best: #9 Sneaky Blowout 3-1 2nd Exotics Use: #8 King Balthasar 5-1 9th <$75 P4 Play: 2: 2-4-5-6 3: 1-3-5-6 4: 1-3-5 5: 2-7 3x3x3x2 = 54 x .50 = $27 $0.50 Pick 4 (1,4,5/6/1/2) Paid $80.15 6th: OC/N2X, 4+, 1m (P3, DD) Quagmire set. Glad this isn't part of the big multis.. Most Likely: #4 St. Moose 4-1 5th Best Value:#7 Rightfully So 6-1 2nd Next Best: #2 Rattlesnake Bridge 5-2 WON ($5.00) Exotics Use: #1 Black Diamond Cat 6-1 7th 7th: MSW, 3yo, 8.5f-T/60' (P3, DD) Most Likely: #8 Balthazar 3-1 3rd Next Best: #2 Forever Thing 5-2 2nd Best Value: #12 Mighty Quinn 12-1 10th Exotics Use: #4 It's a Bad Rapit 20-1 12th 8th: 45th Gulfstream Oaks (G2), 3yo-F, 9f (P6, P3, DD) $1,536,579 Jackpot Rainbow 6 starts here.. Like its' male counterpart, the Oaks has 3 equally talented major players: Live Lively, Dreaming of Julia and Emollient. Kimberly Jean seems progressive as an exotics booster.. Most Likely: #3 Live Lively 3-1 2nd Next Best: #6 Emollient 3-1 5th Exotics Use: #5 Dreaming of Julia 2-1 WON ($5.20) Super Add: #4 Kimberly Jean 10-1 4th 9th: 52nd Orchid (G3), F&M-4+, 12f-T/0' (P5, P3, DD) Best Value: #3 Anjaz 12-1 4th Next Best: #7 Aigue Marine 3-1 7th Exotics Use: #5 Starformer 5-2 5th Super Add: #6 Irish Mission 6-1 3rd 10th: 28th Skip Away (G3), 4+, 9.5f (P4, P3, DD) A notch below the New Orleans H. but still a very interesting set of quality elders.. Most Likely: #3 Golden Ticket 5-1 4th Next Best: #9 Cigar Street 5-2 WON ($5.60) Best Value: #6 Al Qasr 12-1 6th Exotics Use: #10 Pants On Fire 5-1 3rd 11th: 28th Appleton (G3), 4+, 1m-T/60' (P3, DD) Most Likely: #4 Joes Blazing Aaron 5-1 8th Best Value: #5 Cool Blue Red Hot 12-1 4th Next Best: #3 Za Approval 7-2 WON ($6.20) Exotics Use: #7 Silver Max 6-1 5th 12th: 64th Florida Derby (G1), 3yo, 9f (DD) As was the case with his late sire Lawyer Ron, 10f at Churchill may not be right, but feels like Itsmyluckyday is the horse positioned best to have things go his way today.. Most Likely: #3 Itsmyluckyday 2-1 2nd Next Best: #6 Orb 3-1 WON ($7.80) Best Value: #7 Indy's Illusion 20-1 9th Exotics Use: #1 Shanghai Bobby 5-2 5th 13th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T/0' (Super Hi-5) As ferreted out by Welsch, Celestial Kitten's is only eligible for this thanks to the win in the restricted Spearfish.. Best Value: #1 Transgression 6-1 WON ($8.60) Next Best: #11 Celestial Kitten 3-1 3rd Exotics Use: #9 Town Flirt 6-1 2nd Super Add: #3 Parranda 4-1 4th <$30 P6 Play: 8: 3-5-6 9: 3-7 10: 3-9 11: 3-4-5-7 12: 3-6 13: 1-9-11 3x2x2x4x2x3 = 288 x .10 = $28.80 <$75 P5 Play: 9: 3-5-7 10: 3-9 11: 3-4-5-7 12: 3-6 13: 1-9-11 3x2x4x2x3 = 144 x .50 = $72 $0.50 Pick 5 (1/4,9/3,6,10/6/1) Paid $17.05 (4OF5) x 3 = $51.15 <$75 P4 Play: 10: 3-6-7-8-9-10 11: 3-4-5-7 12: 3-6 13: 1-9-11 6x4x2x3 = 144 x .50 = $72 $0.50 Pick 4 (4,9/3,6,10/6/1) Paid $145.55 FAIR GROUNDS PRE-SCRATCHES 7th: Fair Grounds Oaks (G2), 3yo-F, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD) Not a lot of speed here which makes upsetting the top pair difficult.. Most Likely: #5 Flashy Gray 6-5 2nd Next Best: #7 Unlimited Budget 9-5 WON ($3.80) Best Value: #1 Promise Me More 10-1 4th Exotics Use: #6 Blue Violet 12-1 6th 8th: New Orleans H. (G2), 4+, 9f (P3, DD) This race came together better than FG could possibly have hoped with 3 of the top 4 players from the Donn opting to invade. Would be thrilled to stand against 2-1 Graydar, but who exactly is going to prevent him from getting comfortable cruising up front? Macho Macho and Mark Valeski have some speed, but can't imagine Nakatani or Graham are interested in an early duel. Flat Out and Boubon Courage both figure to have a better opportunity to make headway versus Graydar here than they could on the slick Gulfstream strip. However, they'll still need someone to soften the pacesetter up a little. Cool Street (15-1) has been terrific all winter in NoLa, closing stoutly into slow paces every start. Might be the most dangerous and valuable threat down the lane. Only the pair of 20-1 shots seem implausible in this outstanding race.. Most Likely: #8 Graydar 2-1 WON ($4.60) Best Value: #5 Cool Street 15-1 7th Next Best: #6 Macho Macho 8-1 4th Exotics Use: #2 Bourbon Courage 7-2 3rd 9th: Louisiana Derby (G2), 3yo, 9f (P5, P3, DD) Another fun and wacky Derby appears on tap. Pletcher and Baffert players command respect, but as discussed on ATR, the more I looked the more interested I became in Ground Transport. Figures to gain comfortable stalking position into the first turn and should have every chance if good enough. 20-1 to start and may be all of that at post time. Code West and Revolutionary take no imagination and I think My Lute may simply have needed the season starter in the Risen Star.. Best Value: #13 Ground Transport 20-1 5th Next Best: #8 Code West 9-2 6th Exotics Use: #3 Revolutionary 3-1 WON ($6.80) Super Add: #11 My Lute 12-1 2nd 10th: Muniz H. (G2), 4+, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD) Most Likely: #1 Amira's Prince 3-1 WON ($4.60) Best Value: #3 Willcox Inn 8-1 2nd Next Best: #5 Optimizer 5-2 5th Exotics Use: #7 Two Months Rent 12-1 6th <$75 P4 Play: 7: 5-7 8: 1-2-5-6-7-8 9: 2-3-8-10-11-13 10: 1-3 2x6x6x2 = 144 x .50 = $72 $0.50 Pick 4 (7/8/3/1) Paid $40.60 Good luck! Steve
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984. Last edited by Kasept : 03-30-2013 at 09:19 PM. 
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#3
03-30-2013, 07:10 AM
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Quote:
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#4
03-30-2013, 07:59 AM
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Steve,
Best of luck today, what a day of racing lined up!! Great job yesterday, heartbreaker in the finale, feels like you have a monster one on the way. Are you playing anything in the Dubai Cup this morning? As always, thanks for your time and insight.
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