Derby Trail Forums - 3/30: Gulfstream Park (1st-13th); Fair Grounds (7th-10th)

GULFSTREAM PARK

PRE-SCRATCHES

1st: OC/N1X, 3yo, 8.5f-T/60' (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Happy Fella 4-1 5th
Next Best: #7 Shining Copper 3-1 WON ($6.40)
Best Value: #2 Stormy Len 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Middleburg 5-2 2nd

2nd: 4th Sir Shackleton, 4+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Last two winners of this race are here in Travelin Man ('12) and a possibly revitalized Capt. Candyman Can ('11)..

Most Likely: #4 Travelin Man 5-2 WON ($6.00)
Next Best: #5 SCR
Best Value: #2 Capt. Candyman Can 12-1 6th
Exotics Use: #6 Bellefire 6-1 5th

3rd: OC/C, 4+, 1m-T/0' (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Summer Breezing 6-1 3rd
Best Value: #6 Monument Hill 8-1 WON ($11.00)
Next Best: #5 Finale 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #3 SCR

4th: 36th Rampart (G3), F&M-4+, 9f (P3, DD)

Mike Welsch said on ATR that Marty Wolfson may SCR Call the Ten and Pletcher may SCR Ciao Bella..

Most Likely: #3 Successful Song 9-5 3rd
Best Value: #5 Authenticity 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Ciao Bella 8-5 WON ($2.80)

5th: MSW, 3yo, 7f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Slan Abhaile 4-1 WON ($4.60)
Best Value: #7 Romansh 8-1 4th
Next Best: #9 Sneaky Blowout 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 King Balthasar 5-1 9th

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 2-4-5-6
3: 1-3-5-6
4: 1-3-5
5: 2-7

3x3x3x2 = 54 x .50 = $27

$0.50 Pick 4 (1,4,5/6/1/2) Paid $80.15

6th: OC/N2X, 4+, 1m (P3, DD)

Quagmire set. Glad this isn't part of the big multis..

Most Likely: #4 St. Moose 4-1 5th
Best Value:#7 Rightfully So 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Rattlesnake Bridge 5-2 WON ($5.00)
Exotics Use: #1 Black Diamond Cat 6-1 7th

7th: MSW, 3yo, 8.5f-T/60' (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Balthazar 3-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Forever Thing 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #12 Mighty Quinn 12-1 10th
Exotics Use: #4 It's a Bad Rapit 20-1 12th

8th: 45th Gulfstream Oaks (G2), 3yo-F, 9f (P6, P3, DD)

$1,536,579 Jackpot Rainbow 6 starts here..

Like its' male counterpart, the Oaks has 3 equally talented major players: Live Lively, Dreaming of Julia and Emollient. Kimberly Jean seems progressive as an exotics booster..

Most Likely: #3 Live Lively 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Emollient 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Dreaming of Julia 2-1 WON ($5.20)
Super Add: #4 Kimberly Jean 10-1 4th

9th: 52nd Orchid (G3), F&M-4+, 12f-T/0' (P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #3 Anjaz 12-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Aigue Marine 3-1 7th
Exotics Use: #5 Starformer 5-2 5th
Super Add: #6 Irish Mission 6-1 3rd

10th: 28th Skip Away (G3), 4+, 9.5f (P4, P3, DD)

A notch below the New Orleans H. but still a very interesting set of quality elders..

Most Likely: #3 Golden Ticket 5-1 4th
Next Best: #9 Cigar Street 5-2 WON ($5.60)
Best Value: #6 Al Qasr 12-1 6th
Exotics Use: #10 Pants On Fire 5-1 3rd

11th: 28th Appleton (G3), 4+, 1m-T/60' (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Joes Blazing Aaron 5-1 8th
Best Value: #5 Cool Blue Red Hot 12-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Za Approval 7-2 WON ($6.20)
Exotics Use: #7 Silver Max 6-1 5th

12th: 64th Florida Derby (G1), 3yo, 9f (DD)

As was the case with his late sire Lawyer Ron, 10f at Churchill may not be right, but feels like Itsmyluckyday is the horse positioned best to have things go his way today..

Most Likely: #3 Itsmyluckyday 2-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Orb 3-1 WON ($7.80)
Best Value: #7 Indy's Illusion 20-1 9th
Exotics Use: #1 Shanghai Bobby 5-2 5th

13th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T/0' (Super Hi-5)

As ferreted out by Welsch, Celestial Kitten's is only eligible for this thanks to the win in the restricted Spearfish..

Best Value: #1 Transgression 6-1 WON ($8.60)
Next Best: #11 Celestial Kitten 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #9 Town Flirt 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #3 Parranda 4-1 4th

<$30 P6 Play:

8: 3-5-6
9: 3-7
10: 3-9
11: 3-4-5-7
12: 3-6
13: 1-9-11

3x2x2x4x2x3 = 288 x .10 = $28.80

<$75 P5 Play:

9: 3-5-7
10: 3-9
11: 3-4-5-7
12: 3-6
13: 1-9-11

3x2x4x2x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

$0.50 Pick 5 (1/4,9/3,6,10/6/1) Paid $17.05 (4OF5) x 3 = $51.15

<$75 P4 Play:

10: 3-6-7-8-9-10
11: 3-4-5-7
12: 3-6
13: 1-9-11

6x4x2x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

$0.50 Pick 4 (4,9/3,6,10/6/1) Paid $145.55

FAIR GROUNDS

PRE-SCRATCHES

7th: Fair Grounds Oaks (G2), 3yo-F, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Not a lot of speed here which makes upsetting the top pair difficult..

Most Likely: #5 Flashy Gray 6-5 2nd
Next Best: #7 Unlimited Budget 9-5 WON ($3.80)
Best Value: #1 Promise Me More 10-1 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Blue Violet 12-1 6th

8th: New Orleans H. (G2), 4+, 9f (P3, DD)

This race came together better than FG could possibly have hoped with 3 of the top 4 players from the Donn opting to invade. Would be thrilled to stand against 2-1 Graydar, but who exactly is going to prevent him from getting comfortable cruising up front? Macho Macho and Mark Valeski have some speed, but can't imagine Nakatani or Graham are interested in an early duel. Flat Out and Boubon Courage both figure to have a better opportunity to make headway versus Graydar here than they could on the slick Gulfstream strip. However, they'll still need someone to soften the pacesetter up a little. Cool Street (15-1) has been terrific all winter in NoLa, closing stoutly into slow paces every start. Might be the most dangerous and valuable threat down the lane. Only the pair of 20-1 shots seem implausible in this outstanding race..

Most Likely: #8 Graydar 2-1 WON ($4.60)
Best Value: #5 Cool Street 15-1 7th
Next Best: #6 Macho Macho 8-1 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Bourbon Courage 7-2 3rd

9th: Louisiana Derby (G2), 3yo, 9f (P5, P3, DD)

Another fun and wacky Derby appears on tap. Pletcher and Baffert players command respect, but as discussed on ATR, the more I looked the more interested I became in Ground Transport. Figures to gain comfortable stalking position into the first turn and should have every chance if good enough. 20-1 to start and may be all of that at post time. Code West and Revolutionary take no imagination and I think My Lute may simply have needed the season starter in the Risen Star..

Best Value: #13 Ground Transport 20-1 5th
Next Best: #8 Code West 9-2 6th
Exotics Use: #3 Revolutionary 3-1 WON ($6.80)
Super Add: #11 My Lute 12-1 2nd

10th: Muniz H. (G2), 4+, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Amira's Prince 3-1 WON ($4.60)
Best Value: #3 Willcox Inn 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Optimizer 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Two Months Rent 12-1 6th

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 5-7
8: 1-2-5-6-7-8
9: 2-3-8-10-11-13
10: 1-3

2x6x6x2 = 144 x .50 = $72

$0.50 Pick 4 (7/8/3/1) Paid $40.60

Good luck!
Steve