Ruffian - maybe the greatest debut of all-time

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Here are my projected figures for Ruffian's four 3-year-old stakes races.

Comely: 117
Acorn: 106
Mother Goose: 112
Coaching Club Oaks: 108

Kind of head scratching the 11 point difference between the Comely and Acorn - but both days you had several other races to work with. In the Comely, she went 17 points faster than Hatchet Man did in victory at the same 7f distance in a 4X Alw race for older males that day. I gave Aunt Jin a 100 for running 2nd in the Comely. She was a Grade 1 winning 2yo and won a Grade 1 a few races later. Future champion Proud Delta was 4th by 12.

The Acorn was only 8-to-10 points faster than a trio of other unimportant races that day - and 25 points faster than a MSW. The 2nd place finisher in the Acorn was also an N1X horse.

Because the Comely was at 7fs - I don't think you can consider Ruffian the greatest 3yo filly of all-time. She had just 3 complete races at a mile and beyond - and with all unpressured leads was in the 106-to-112 range.

I think she is the greatest 2yo filly sprinter of all-time and probably the greatest 2yo sprinter of any gender.

Formal Gold's 112 Debut Beyer is the highest published - and amazingly, I think she ran faster as a 2yo in May.

Ruffian won her debut by 15 lengths. The 2nd place finisher was bet to 3/2 odds off of a 34 and change work - she was five lengths clear of the rest. The horse who finished 7th by 25 in the field of 10 - was second in a Grade 1 later in the year and 3rd in the Ky Oaks the following year.

Ruffian ran 25 points faster than a N3X alw race for older females on the same card. The winner of that N3X (Big Puddles) won a Grade 3 stake a few starts later.

I projected a 114 for her debut.

In Ruffian's 2nd career start - she made a mockery of the undefeated Copernica in the Fashion Stakes. It was 19.75 lengths back to 3rd place in the field of six. Copernica came back and ran a couple of good 2nds in Grade 1's.



Ruffian won the Astoria by 9 over Laughing Bridge (LB won back to back Grade 2's in her next two starts) 3rd place was beaten 21 lengths.

Ruffian won the Grade 1 Sorority next out over Hot N Nasty (3-time Graded Stakes winning 2yo and Test winner at age 3) - it was 24.25 lengths back to 3rd place.

Ruffian finished her great 2yo season with a 12.75 length Grade 1 win in the Spinaway over Laughing Bridge.

All of her 2yo races came at 6fs or less.

[santana]

I was at the track the day she broke her maiden..I had a tip on another horse in that race. I really wish i remember who it was , but i dont.
I dont think i missed another race she ran in...Just an amazing horse.

[Indian Charlie]

I wonder what Gilded Time got in his first two starts.

Melair in her last start.

The races between Greinton and Precisionist at HP in their 4yo season.

[MISTERGEE]

I wonder if Landaluce beyers in her short career were near that 100 range?

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by MISTERGEE

I wonder if Landaluce beyers in her short career were near that 100 range?

Hell yes.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

I wonder what Gilded Time got in his first two starts.

Gilded Time ran a 79 in his debut (Broke last - won handily in 1:10.20) - he ran a 102 in his second career start - a half length win over Wild Zone in 1:07.80 at MTH

John Shirreffs Hook And Ladder ran a 110 in his debut as a 2yo - I believe the fastest 2yo debut ever published. Formal Gold's debut came at age 3.

Holy Bull ran a 101 in his debut as a 2yo. Kelly Kip a 104. Discreet Cat a 106. More Than Ready won 3 sprint stakes as a 2yo in June-July in the 102 to 105 range. Orville N Wilburs (who set the pace in Indian Charlie's Santa Anita Derby win) ran a 108 in his 2nd start at age 2. Forest Camp ran a 106 in the Del Mar Futurity

I don't have enough info to project Melair at age 3 - but I think her last win was probably supersonic.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Gilded Time ran a 79 in his debut (Broke last - won handily in 1:10.20) - he ran a 102 in his second career start - a half length win over Wild Zone in 1:07.80 at MTH

John Shirreffs Hook And Ladder ran a 110 in his debut as a 2yo - I believe the fastest 2yo debut ever published. Formal Gold's debut came at age 3.

Holy Bull ran a 101 in his debut as a 2yo. Kelly Kip a 104. Discreet Cat a 106. More Than Ready won 3 sprint stakes as a 2yo in June-July in the 102 to 105 range. Orville N Wilburs (who set the pace in Indian Charlie's Santa Anita Derby win) ran a 108 in his 2nd start at age 2. Forest Camp ran a 106 in the Del Mar Futurity

I don't have enough info to project Melair at age 3 - but I think her last win was probably supersonic.

Yeah, I should have figured that Gilded Time would have a slow fig for his debut. It was a decent time, but visually, it was spectacular.

I remember a Peterhof FTS trained by, I think, Gary Jones that won by about 10 in her debut. It was from his first crop and might have been his first starter, for all I know. Mccarron, after the race, jokingly quipped "Those Peterhofs sure can run".

I wish I remembered the name!

[Indian Charlie]

Oh, what did All Slewped Up get in his debut again? Was it a 110? Or 101?

[blackthroatedwind]

Didn't Meadowlake get around a 109 or 110?

[randallscott35]

Thoro wise first out before September I can't see how the 0 Uncle Mo ran is matched.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by MISTERGEE

I wonder if Landaluce beyers in her short career were near that 100 range?

I don't quite have enough info to project Landaluce - but I think one of the most interesting votes in history was her winning a 2yo championship over Princess Rooney.

Both of them were sensationally fast 2yo's - and I actually rated both the two best 2yo fillies of the 1980's. However, I'm confident Princess Rooney was much faster than Landaluce beyond 7fs. Landaluce was almost certainly faster at sprint distances - but maybe not by much actually. I think Princess Rooney probably should have won that vote.

Here is what some of Landaluce's competition looked like:

* 2nd by 21 to Landaluce on July 10th:



* 2nd by 10 to Landaluce on Oct 11th:



* 2nd by 6.5 to Landaluce on Sep 5th:



* 2nd by 2 to Landaluce on Oct 23rd:




Meanwhile, Princeess Rooney destroyed everything in Florida - and came East and smoked some nice competition there by wide margins. The day of A. P. Indy and Summer Squall was having a solid year and Princess Rooney demolished her.

Ruffian was a better 2yo sprinter than Landaluce - and probably any other horse for that matter.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Didn't Meadowlake get around a 109 or 110?

He was the same year as Storm Cat (1985). Won his debut by 22 lengths at Hawthrone in a field of 10.

I can't project him - but he was undefeated in 3 career starts - and went on to be an excellent sire. He and obviously Storm Cat a little more so - sure did wonders to the direction the breed is going.

[Linny]

Originally Posted by santana

I was at the track the day she broke her maiden..I had a tip on another horse in that race. I really wish i remember who it was , but i dont.
I dont think i missed another race she ran in...Just an amazing horse.

I think the favorite was Woody's Stephens' filly Suzest. Woody really thought he had a nice filly and she was a bit of a talking horse 'til Ruffian shut that all up.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

He was the same year as Storm Cat (1985). Won his debut by 22 lengths at Hawthrone in a field of 10.

I can't project him - but he was undefeated in 3 career starts - and went on to be an excellent sire. He and obviously Storm Cat a little more so - sure did wonders to the direction the breed is going.

His Beyer fig was somewhere between 109 and 113. I know he was one of the top debut figs ever.

[parsixfarms]

Although he never panned out, when I think of impressive 2YO debuts, I always come up with Rodeo.

[classhandicapper]

Not to diminish Ruffian as a 2YO (obviously freakishly good) , but it's not that unusual for 2YO fillies to be ahead of 2YO colts in their physical development (especially sprinting). I think that's something that has to be considered when evaluating them relative to colts based on the standards we are used to among older horses.

If the typical gap between MATURE males and females is typically 8 Beyer points (+ or - a little), it tends to be less among 2YO sprinters.

Had she remained sound and continued racing, I think she would have been a lot like RA in that we would have seen her best at 3.

I don't have much of an issue with the fluctuation of her figures. IMO, the race development, pace, figure accuracy, and reserve racing energy/stamina issues are too complex to take any one figure too literally as a measure of ability or even performance.

Finally, I don't trust speed figures in races where the winning margin was huge no matter who makes them, including me (and I certainly respect DrugS). The exact beaten length time translation formula used for the PPs is not known by anyone other than Equibase. All the major speed figure makers are using a slightly different beaten length chart (TG and RAGs is different than Beyer, CJ is different from both etc..).

So if you project a figure for a winner based on the well beaten horses, depending on which beaten length chart you use you will get a different figure. Even worse, typically, big winners are dominant speed types. Part of the reason they win by so many lengths is that the pace they set is well within their own range, but outside the range of the inferior stalkers and chasers. So the margin of victory gets exaggerated by the fact that the competition was exhausted chasing the winner. It's hard to determine how much of the large margin is the winner running fast and how much is the losers running slower than usual.

IMHO, Beyer himself (and most other figure makers) don't understand this phenomenon well enough and tend to inflate the figures of big winners. IMHO, he inflated a couple of Rachel's figures by a few points that way on days when track speed was not stable.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Not to diminish Ruffian as a 2YO (obviously freakishly good) , but it's not that unusual for 2YO fillies to be ahead of 2YO colts in their physical development (especially sprinting). I think that's something that has to be considered when evaluating them relative to colts based on the standards we are used to among older horses.

If the typical gap between MATURE males and females is typically 8 Beyer points (+ or - a little), it tends to be less among 2YO sprinters.

Had she remained sound and continued racing, I think she would have been a lot like RA in that we would have seen her best at 3.

Obviously fillies develop earlier than colts. You watch them drill at the 2yo sales in Feb through June - and typically the better females are a little more impressive than the better males collectively.

In general - males can handle tough campaigns and huge individual performances better than females. There have been A LOT of great performances by females that have been followed by injury and long layoff.

Melair, Mossflower, La Femmen, Sharp Cat almost died after her 119 Beyer and never raced again, Akinemod won a Grade 2 by 18 lengths with a 120 Beyer for her 6th straight win, she didn't race again for over a year and a half was "Eased, DNF" in her return race. Blushing K.D, Ski Goggle, etc.

That was one thing Zenyatta always had going for her, her performances were so mediocre and relatively slow that they were easy to come back from. Look at her after those California wins - she comes prancing back looking like she wasn't even in a horse race. After the BC Classic - she came back hot and dirty - looking so tired that if you sprayed her with a hose you might knock her over. Those are the type of efforts horses don't always come back from - especially females.

[randallscott35]

I saw Blushing KD in a race at Monmouth. OMG was she fast.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

That was one thing Zenyatta always had going for her, her performances were so mediocre and relatively slow that they were easy to come back from. Look at her after those California wins - she comes prancing back looking like she wasn't even in a horse race. After the BC Classic - she came back hot and dirty - looking so tired that if you sprayed her with a hose you might knock her over. Those are the type of efforts horses don't always come back from - especially females.

That's probably the single most interesting thing said on here about Zenyatta.

Of course, all the ZT'ers (Zenyattards) out there will tell you she was tired because she nearly fell down when that horse crashed into her, plus she was tied up from being in the cold.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

In terms of how Ruffian's 3yo stakes figures relate to other great 3yo fillies:

The best 3yo filly of the 90's - Go For Wand's last five starts before the BC Distaff breakdown:

Beldame - 117
Maskette - 105
Alabama - 111
Test - 114
Mother Goose - 104


Rachel Alexandra at age 3:




Silverbulletday's entrie career - like Rachel Alexandra, she was a MUCH maligned 4yo - but really all she did was tail off from a tough campaign loaded with great performances late in her 3yo season. At age 4, she was good and fast again - but just didn't develop from her 3yo season.




Another nice 3yo filly season was Dance Smartly - she was a perfect 8-for-8. She swept the Canadian Triple Crown against the males - won the Molson Million under a hand ride over Eclipse champion 2yo male Fly So Free. Capped off her perfect season with a BC Distaff win. Like RA and SBD - she also didn't develop at age 4 and was much maligned.