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#1
11-13-2010, 06:27 AM
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11/13: Aqueduct; Calder; Churchill (Late P4's)
Took a couple days to get the feel back for NY after almost 3 weeks focused on Cup, but I had a much better look Friday than Wed/Thurs, and was pleased to point people in the right direction throughout the card. Missed the P6, but day turned out fine with the double payout in the Late P4 returning just under $600. One lesson about the carryover was that when they get that big, the heavier investment or group bet approach is quite worthwhile. I put in a very modest play of $64 when it came time (having arrived late at Aqueduct in a foul mood having missed Lloydobler's race). But a full frontal attack with main/backup tickets on a serious budget would have had a real chance at success for the $135k, as all 6 winners were within my tabs (One 4th choice; Five 2nd choices). Hope everybody did well! Fun day of racing ahead with Stakes at Calder and nice late season cards at Aqueduct and Churchill.
AQUEDUCT POST-SCRATCHES 6th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super) No less than half a dozen ways to lean here if against 5-2 favorite Sky Blue Pink who is just OK.. SCR of #12 Zealous Boy changes my thoughts here a bit.. Most Likely: #6 Sky Blue Pink 5-2 WON ($6.70) Best Value: #10 Dougie 5-1 5th Next Best: #5 City Train 4-1 3rd Super Add: #4 Fortissi More 8-1 6th 7th: OC/N2X, 3+, 1m (P3, DD, Super) Very difficult set with some hard knockers facing off against condition runners.. Most Likely: #8 Harmonizer 5-1 2nd Best Value: #4 More Than a Reason 20-1 6th Next Best: #3 Brother Bird 3-1 5th Super Add: #9 Groomed for Victory 6-1 WON ($8.50) 8th: 54th Long Island H. (G3), F&M-3+, 12f-T (DD, Super) Most Likely: #3 Changing Skies 1-1 4th Best Value: #2 Mekong Melody 4-1 WON ($9.40) Next Best: #7 Daveron 7-2 2nd Super Add: #6 Sweet and Flawless 6-1 6th 9th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6f (Super) Most Likely: #9 Rein King 3-1 2nd Best Value: #5 Conflicted 12-1 4th Next Best: #7 Kill the Joker 4-1 6th Super Add: #4 Broken Home 6-1 WON <$75 P4 Play: 6: 6 7: 1-3-4-5-8-9 8: 2-3 9: 1-2-4-5-7-9 1x6x2x6 = $72 $1 Pick 4 (6/12/13/15/16-9-2-4) 4 Correct Paid $309.00 CALDER RACE COURSE POST-SCRATCHES 8th: Jack Price Juvenile-FL, 2yo, 7f (.50 P4, Super)) Best Value: #2 Ribo Bobo 6-1 2nd Next Best: #6 Uno Caliente 3-1 6th Exotics Use: #5 Manicero 5-1 WON ($6.20) Super Add: #10 Determinato 4-1 7th 9th: John Franks Fillies Turf-FL, 2yo-F, 8.5f-T (P3, Super) Most Likely: #7 Holidaysatthefarm 3-1 2nd Best Value: #10 Litigating 8-1 4th Next Best: #3 Salsa Bullet 8-1 WON ($15.60) Super Add: #11 Mirimichi Babe 8-1 5th 10th: Elmer Heubeck Distaff Mile-FL, F&M-3+, 8.5f (DD, Super) Most Likely: #5 Amazing 2-1 2nd Best Value: #2 Joanie's Catch 10-1 WON ($26.00) Next Best: #3 Trip for A.J. 9-5 5th Super Add: #8 Successful Song 4-1 6th 11th: Carl Rose Classic-FL, 3+, 9f (DD, Super) Most Likely: #4 Duke of Mischief 7-5 2nd Next Best: #6 Birdrun 9-5 WON ($4.60) Exotics Use: #2 Dream Maestro 6-1 3rd <$75 P4 Play: 8: 2-5-6 9: 3-7-10 10: 2-3-5-8 11: 4-6 3x3x4x2 = $72 (Or $36 for .50) $1 Pick 4 (4,5,7/3/2/6) Paid $1,685.50 (.50 Play Paid $842.75) CHURCHILL DOWNS POST-SCRATCHES 7th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 5f-T (.50 P4, P3, DD, Super) #14 Lunar Pass DRAWS IN.. Most Likely: #1 Delano 7-2 WON ($5.40) Next Best: #3 Perfect Easter 5-1 3rd Best Value: #7 Skiff's Argument 8-1 10th Super Add: #3 Wake Maker 6-1 12th 8th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super) If no one goes with Pletcher's Zermatt, she is a serious wire threat.. Most Likely: #9 Zermatt 3-1 2nd Best Value: #3 Silver Sierra 15-1 8th Exotics Use: #7 Cat Onthe Town 12-1 6th Super Add: #1a Gold Collection 2-1 3rd 9th: 7th Commonwealth (G3), 3yo, 8.5f-T (DD, Super) Unbelievably attractive wagering affair. As good as Yankee Fortune ran in Chicago, it's tough to swallow anything around the 3-1 ML on him given the 3-4 others that can exert pace pressure. At the same time, remembering that the Downs turf course is as hard today as it was last weekend, gives at least some pause to expect Victor Santiago will have the McLaughlin trainee part of the decision. Meanwhile, there are perhaps 5 players at 6-1 or more that could be in the mutuel mix.. Best Value: #7 Mister Mardi Gras 8-1 5th Next Best: #9 Mystic 6-1 4th Exotics Use: #13 Beau Choix 4-1 11th Super Add: #10 Thunder Brew 20-1 9th 10th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 1m (Super, Super Hi-5) Most Likely: #3 Allrightsreserved 7-2 WON ($) Best Value: #7 King of Soul 10-1 Next Best: #9 Ziegfeld 3-1 2nd Exotics Use: #11 Wireman 20-1 3rd Hi-5 Play: #1 Juju 12-1 <$75 P4 Play: 7: 1-3 8: 1-3-7-9 9: 6-7-9-10-11-13 10: 3-7-9 2x4x6x3 = 144 x .50 = $72 Good luck! Steve
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans Last edited by Kasept : 11-13-2010 at 04:14 PM. 
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#2
11-13-2010, 07:52 AM
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Good Luck Steve.
I also think that while the Commonwealth is a wide open affair. There is a chance that Mister Mardi Gras could just be better than these. Last edited by Kasept : 11-13-2010 at 03:41 PM.
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#3
11-13-2010, 10:20 AM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans Last edited by Kasept : 11-13-2010 at 03:41 PM.
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#4
11-13-2010, 10:30 AM
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#5
11-13-2010, 10:37 AM
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BOL troday! Agree Block feels right in the stake. Don't want to keep you... It's Kentucky Colonel Day at the Downs so I know you have to get over to Millionaire's Row.
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#6
11-13-2010, 10:39 AM
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G/L today!
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#7
11-13-2010, 10:47 AM
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#8
11-13-2010, 10:49 AM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#9
11-13-2010, 02:58 PM
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$35k C/O with any EXCEPT 4-5-9...
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#11
11-13-2010, 03:52 PM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#12
11-13-2010, 04:49 PM
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#13
11-13-2010, 04:52 PM
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Looks like the Byk train is on a roll. Great job on the two scores Steve.
__________________
Felix Unger talking to Oscar Madison: "Your horse could finish third by 20 lengths and they still pay you? And you have been losing money for all these years?!"
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#14
11-13-2010, 06:17 PM
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(Was kidding..)
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#15
11-13-2010, 06:19 PM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#16
11-13-2010, 06:29 PM
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Great job today on the Calder P4, as it turned out optimally for you and piggybackers.
Congrats!!
__________________
"A person who saw no important difference between the fire outside a Neandrathal's cave and a working thermo-nuclear reactor might tell you that junk bonds and derivatives BOTH serve to energize capital" - Nathan Israel
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#18
11-14-2010, 05:27 AM
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 Congrats again, Steve! 
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#19
11-14-2010, 05:49 AM
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Thx Coach.. Was a good day. Things look trickier this afternoon.
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#20
11-14-2010, 06:01 AM
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Thanks a lot! Very true about the optimal turnout. It's funny when you compare how the CRC and AQU 4's paid. In NY, the 9 was paying $2,130, but instead the favored 4 wins and you get $309. At Calder, even with the odds-on Fawkes (Duke) in the anchor leg, it would have returned $963 thanks to getting Joannie's Catch into the sequence at 10-1+. But the Mott produces the bonus payoff of nearly $1,700. I'm going to write a blurb about this today with the tabs because it really was a case study kind of day in P4's. Churchill too... The Borel-Pitts upsetter made the sequence pay well with chalk ($2,470/.50). But if the logical Zermatt gets by in that 8th, the quad comes back meagerly (parlay = $130/$2).
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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