11/13: Aqueduct; Calder; Churchill (Late P4's)
 

Took a couple days to get the feel back for NY after almost 3 weeks focused on Cup, but I had a much better look Friday than Wed/Thurs, and was pleased to point people in the right direction throughout the card. Missed the P6, but day turned out fine with the double payout in the Late P4 returning just under $600. One lesson about the carryover was that when they get that big, the heavier investment or group bet approach is quite worthwhile. I put in a very modest play of $64 when it came time (having arrived late at Aqueduct in a foul mood having missed Lloydobler's race). But a full frontal attack with main/backup tickets on a serious budget would have had a real chance at success for the $135k, as all 6 winners were within my tabs (One 4th choice; Five 2nd choices). Hope everybody did well! Fun day of racing ahead with Stakes at Calder and nice late season cards at Aqueduct and Churchill.


AQUEDUCT


POST-SCRATCHES


6th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

No less than half a dozen ways to lean here if against 5-2 favorite Sky Blue Pink who is just OK..

SCR of #12 Zealous Boy changes my thoughts here a bit..

Most Likely: #6 Sky Blue Pink 5-2 WON ($6.70)
Best Value: #10 Dougie 5-1 5th
Next Best: #5 City Train 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #4 Fortissi More 8-1 6th


7th: OC/N2X, 3+, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

Very difficult set with some hard knockers facing off against condition runners..

Most Likely: #8 Harmonizer 5-1 2nd
Best Value: #4 More Than a Reason 20-1 6th
Next Best: #3 Brother Bird 3-1 5th
Super Add: #9 Groomed for Victory 6-1 WON ($8.50)


8th: 54th Long Island H. (G3), F&M-3+, 12f-T (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Changing Skies 1-1 4th
Best Value: #2 Mekong Melody 4-1 WON ($9.40)
Next Best: #7 Daveron 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #6 Sweet and Flawless 6-1 6th


9th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6f (Super)

Most Likely: #9 Rein King 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #5 Conflicted 12-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Kill the Joker 4-1 6th
Super Add: #4 Broken Home 6-1 WON


<$75 P4 Play:

6: 6
7: 1-3-4-5-8-9
8: 2-3
9: 1-2-4-5-7-9

1x6x2x6 = $72

$1 Pick 4 (6/12/13/15/16-9-2-4) 4 Correct Paid $309.00



CALDER RACE COURSE


POST-SCRATCHES


8th: Jack Price Juvenile-FL, 2yo, 7f (.50 P4, Super))

Best Value: #2 Ribo Bobo 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Uno Caliente 3-1 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Manicero 5-1 WON ($6.20)
Super Add: #10 Determinato 4-1 7th


9th: John Franks Fillies Turf-FL, 2yo-F, 8.5f-T (P3, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Holidaysatthefarm 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #10 Litigating 8-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Salsa Bullet 8-1 WON ($15.60)
Super Add: #11 Mirimichi Babe 8-1 5th


10th: Elmer Heubeck Distaff Mile-FL, F&M-3+, 8.5f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Amazing 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #2 Joanie's Catch 10-1 WON ($26.00)
Next Best: #3 Trip for A.J. 9-5 5th
Super Add: #8 Successful Song 4-1 6th


11th: Carl Rose Classic-FL, 3+, 9f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Duke of Mischief 7-5 2nd
Next Best: #6 Birdrun 9-5 WON ($4.60)
Exotics Use: #2 Dream Maestro 6-1 3rd


<$75 P4 Play:

8: 2-5-6
9: 3-7-10
10: 2-3-5-8
11: 4-6

3x3x4x2 = $72 (Or $36 for .50)

$1 Pick 4 (4,5,7/3/2/6) Paid $1,685.50

(.50 Play Paid $842.75)



CHURCHILL DOWNS


POST-SCRATCHES


7th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 5f-T (.50 P4, P3, DD, Super)

#14 Lunar Pass DRAWS IN..

Most Likely: #1 Delano 7-2 WON ($5.40)
Next Best: #3 Perfect Easter 5-1 3rd
Best Value: #7 Skiff's Argument 8-1 10th
Super Add: #3 Wake Maker 6-1 12th


8th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

If no one goes with Pletcher's Zermatt, she is a serious wire threat..

Most Likely: #9 Zermatt 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #3 Silver Sierra 15-1 8th
Exotics Use: #7 Cat Onthe Town 12-1 6th
Super Add: #1a Gold Collection 2-1 3rd


9th: 7th Commonwealth (G3), 3yo, 8.5f-T (DD, Super)

Unbelievably attractive wagering affair. As good as Yankee Fortune ran in Chicago, it's tough to swallow anything around the 3-1 ML on him given the 3-4 others that can exert pace pressure. At the same time, remembering that the Downs turf course is as hard today as it was last weekend, gives at least some pause to expect Victor Santiago will have the McLaughlin trainee part of the decision. Meanwhile, there are perhaps 5 players at 6-1 or more that could be in the mutuel mix..

Best Value: #7 Mister Mardi Gras 8-1 5th
Next Best: #9 Mystic 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #13 Beau Choix 4-1 11th
Super Add: #10 Thunder Brew 20-1 9th


10th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 1m (Super, Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #3 Allrightsreserved 7-2 WON ($)
Best Value: #7 King of Soul 10-1
Next Best: #9 Ziegfeld 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #11 Wireman 20-1 3rd
Hi-5 Play: #1 Juju 12-1


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-3
8: 1-3-7-9
9: 6-7-9-10-11-13
10: 3-7-9

2x4x6x3 = 144 x .50 = $72


Good luck!
Steve

Good Luck Steve.

I also think that while the Commonwealth is a wide open affair.
There is a chance that Mister Mardi Gras could just be better than these.

AQU SCR/CHG'S

CD SCR/CHG'S

CRC SCR/CHG'S

With the scratch of Zealous Boy allowing the 14 - Runaway Jim to draw in, I think he merits some consideration as he has enough tactical speed to find a spot to get over from the 12 post. I'm not crazy about his win chances, but he'll be definitely used underneath.

V/J,

BOL troday! Agree Block feels right in the stake.

Don't want to keep you... It's Kentucky Colonel Day at the Downs so I know you have to get over to Millionaire's Row.

Definitely Mike... I was looking at him just now too. Was anxious for an alternative to 'Pink', and really thought Zealous Boy had a look in there. Will live with the fave at this point...

G/L today!

Why so against Sky Blue Pink? I understand the favorite is never appealing but if he runs anywhere near as well as he did last time out he's going to bury this field.

Yup.. I acquiesced.

$35k C/O with any EXCEPT 4-5-9...

Steve, you are in the zone. Thanks for the Calder plays today!!

Thx Cap... That made up for the chalky 4 at Aqueduct! Glad you came along.

Huh??

Looks like the Byk train is on a roll. Great job on the two scores Steve.

I figured you for a Kentucky Colonel... They were up in Millionaire's Row today.




(Was kidding..)

Thx Matt! Was a fun day... Just setting down with tomorrow's paperwork. Let's try to roll it on over!

Great job today on the Calder P4, as it turned out optimally for you and piggybackers.

Congrats!!

I got it now....I rode the short bus today.

I'm a Colonel. They didn't send me any literature for the event!! :mad:


Congrats again, Steve! :D

You and Artis Gilmore... Both Colonels!


Thx Coach.. Was a good day. Things look trickier this afternoon.

Mike,

Thanks a lot! Very true about the optimal turnout. It's funny when you compare how the CRC and AQU 4's paid. In NY, the 9 was paying $2,130, but instead the favored 4 wins and you get $309. At Calder, even with the odds-on Fawkes (Duke) in the anchor leg, it would have returned $963 thanks to getting Joannie's Catch into the sequence at 10-1+. But the Mott produces the bonus payoff of nearly $1,700.

I'm going to write a blurb about this today with the tabs because it really was a case study kind of day in P4's. Churchill too... The Borel-Pitts upsetter made the sequence pay well with chalk ($2,470/.50). But if the logical Zermatt gets by in that 8th, the quad comes back meagerly (parlay = $130/$2).