What % Chance Of SS Winning The Triple?

[randallscott35]

What say you of his chances?

[Antitrust32]

33.3%

[randallscott35]

Pros:
1. Pletcher winning a lot lately
2. Lightly raced
3. Has won at Belmont
4. Weak crop
5. Slop no issue

Cons:
1. Rigors of short rest
2. Full fields likely for both
3. Not head and shoulders better
4. Borel's ride on Mine That Bird last year has to worry you about riding Big Sandy

20% Chance I Guess

[Thunder Gulch]

Less than 10%. Just guessing at odds but if he's 3-1 and 2-1, that's 25% and 33%, so .25 x .33=8.25%. With 14 potential entries, he won't be too much shorter than that unless some of the other "name" horses are out. If he runs off in the Preakness, I guess he could really come down to even money in a 7 or 8 horse Belmont field.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

Less than 10%. Just guessing at odds but if he's 3-1 and 2-1, that's 25% and 33%, so .25 x .33=8.25%. With 14 potential entries, he won't be too much shorter than that unless some of the other "name" horses are out. If he runs off in the Preakness, I guess he could really come down to even money in a 7 or 8 horse Belmont field.

Dunbar is our resident odds expert I'll wait for his thoughts....but almost every horse with a chance in the Belmont is less than even money.

[slotdirt]

To win all three? Pretty low considering there have been 92 "official" runnings of the Triple Crown since 1918 and only 11 horses have won all three.

[robfla]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Dunbar is our resident odds expert I'll wait for his thoughts....but almost every horse with a chance in the Belmont is less than even money.

According to Bodog:

Will Super Saver win the 2010 Preakness Stakes

Yes +240
No -300


Will Super Saver Win The 2010 Triple Crown

All three Triple Crown Races must be run for action. Super Saver must win Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes for "Yes" to be graded the winner.


Yes +475

No -700

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by robfla

According to Bodog:

Will Super Saver win the 2010 Preakness Stakes

Yes +240
No -300


Will Super Saver Win The 2010 Triple Crown

All three Triple Crown Races must be run for action. Super Saver must win Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes for "Yes" to be graded the winner.


Yes +475

No -700

That's quite a spread on that Triple Bet, looks like a 20 something % take. Not good odds, but its BoDog so what do you expect.

[robfla]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

That's quite a spread on that Triple Bet, looks like a 20 something % take. Not good odds, but its BoDog so what do you expect.

exactly..

If you like SS you are better off betting him to win the Preakness then parlaying it to the Belmont.

[slotdirt]

When was the last time Maria's Mon (rest in peace) sired a horse that wanted to go 12 furlongs on the dirt? Has there been one?

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

When was the last time Maria's Mon (rest in peace) sired a horse that wanted to go 12 furlongs on the dirt? Has there been one?

Monarchos, like the rest of his progeny, got 12 furlongs and I believe Super Saver will too, it's just a matter of how long it will take them.

NT

[slotdirt]

Monarchos got 12f? When? In one of Jim Squires' dreams?

[slotdirt]

Needless to say, I missed NTamm's joke. Monba sure liked going 12f, though in fairness to Maria's Mon, Monba didn't really like going any distance.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Needless to say, I missed NTamm's joke. Monba sure liked going 12f, though in fairness to Maria's Mon, Monba didn't really like going any distance.

Monarchos ran 3rd beaten a city block in the 2001 Belmont.

NT

[slotdirt]

Wait a While liked to go a route of ground, but to be fair again, she also liked grass and procaine.

[rgustafson]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Monarchos ran 3rd beaten a city block in the 2001 Belmont.

NT

Yes, but I don't think there are any Point Givens in this years field.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

When was the last time Maria's Mon (rest in peace) sired a horse that wanted to go 12 furlongs on the dirt? Has there been one?

Is it fair to say that maybe we have a weeeee small sample size?

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by rgustafson

Yes, but I don't think there are any Point Givens in this years field.

VERY tough to disagree with that assessment.

In truth, I really believe that many things can beat Super Saver in the Belmont, I don't believe pedigree will be one of them.

NT

[slotdirt]

Maria's Mon had almost 1,000 foals on the ground before he kicked it. How big a sample size do you want?

[slotdirt]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

VERY tough to disagree with that assessment.

In truth, I really believe that many things can beat Super Saver in the Belmont, I don't believe pedigree will be one of them.

NT

I don't disagree in the least. I just can't get excited about this horse yet.