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#1
07-28-2008, 05:51 AM
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7/28: Saratoga (Amsterdam)
Sunday offered further proof that good wagering will overciome bad handicapping on a regular basis. After struggling all day long to find combinations inter or intra-race, a heavy win bet and key of "Best Value" selection Macho Again in the Jim Dandy solved all ills. The Dallas Stewart-trained, West Point-owned son of Macho Uno held off Pyro in a great edition of this Travers prep and paid a fat $18.40. Keying Macho Again with Tiz Now Tiz Then (2nd/3rd) with "All" cost just $20 and returned $292. Other than the 'Dandy' hit, the day was frustrating. Hope you did OK.
SARATOGA RACE COURSE 10th OFF THE TURF ONLY... Pre-Scratches... 1st: NYB-OC/N2X, 3+, 9f (P3, DD) Most Likely: #6 Brookhaven's Money 4-1 3rd Best Value: #3 Lorccan 8-1 WON Next Best: #1e SCR (for wagering purposes) 2nd: MDN CLM, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD) Most Likely: #2e Contessa entry 5-1 6th/7th Best Value: #8 Golden Guska 8-1 11th Next Best: #10 Arrrrr 9-2 WON 3rd: OC/C, 3+, 7f (P3, DD) Most Likely: #2 Mr. Umphrey 5-2 4th Next Best: #5 Wanderin Boy 8-5 WON 4th: NYB-OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD) Most Likely: #2 Motion entry (2b Absolute Heaven prefered SCR) 5-1 8th Next Best: #9 Blitzen Too 2-1 4th Best Value: #1 Stormy Relations 9-2 2nd Super Add: #3e Bush entry 7-2 5th/7th 5th: MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super) Best Value: #7 Bambolina 12-1 6th Most Likely: #3 Amanwella 3-1 7th Next Best: #8 Banker's Choice 20-1 5th Super Add: #12 August Rush 6-1 WON 6th: NYB-MSW, 3+, 8.5f-T (G/S, P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #9 Pegasian 3-1 7th Next Best: #8 Iron Gate 4-1 5th Best Value: #10 Fortissi More 8-1 4th Super Add: #4 Fra Lippo 5-1 3rd 7th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #2 CHAUETTE 6-1 3rd Best Value (Beyond the above): #7 Horseshoe Buoy 10-1 7th Next Best: #9 Fiona Freud 5-2 2nd Super Add: #5 Alyssa Giovanna 5-1 4th; #11 Donna's Sandee 8-1 WON .10 SUPER SPOT PLAY: Key 2 1st/2nd with 5-7-9-11 (1x4x3x2 + 4x1x3x2 = 48 x .10 = $4.80) Play for .30 ($14.40) The Lillian Russell, F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #3 Windy 3-1 4th Best Value: #4 Are We Dreamin 12-1 5th Next Best: #7 Silver Knockers 10-1 2nd Super Add: #6 Inside Passage 6-1 6th 9th: 16th Amsterdam (Gr. II), 3yo, 6.5f (DD) Ah.. The Amsterdam... Popularly known on Derby Trail as the ""Could it be Court Folly?" Race features what may be the least lucky maiden in the history of racing, Excess Capital. Frankel very well may scratch Fidelio. Most Likely: #3 Desert Key 5-2 2nd Best Value: #2 DEVEREUX 10-1 3rd Next Best: #4 Silver Edition 7-2 4th 10th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 8.5f-OFF THE TURF (Super) CHANGES NOT YET ANNOUNCED BUT DEFINITELY OFF GRASS... Of those likely to run... Most Likely: #11 Irish Bride 4-1 3rd Best Value: #3 SCR Next Best: #7 Royal Skip 30-1 WON Super Add: #15 SCR @$75 P4 Play: 7: 2-5-7-9-11 8: 3-4-6-7 9: 2-3 10: 3/SCR-11 5x4x2x1 = $40 Good luck! Steve
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984. Last edited by Kasept : 07-29-2008 at 07:20 AM. 
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#2
07-28-2008, 07:37 AM
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Rarely, and I do mean rarely, do I get excited about having a Monday off work. I am excited to have this day off for just this reason, I will be at Scioto Downs in a couple hours betting a full Toga card.
My typical Monday wagering options include $4,000 claimers at Thistle, $5,000 claimers at Calder and the occasional Meadows fiasco with Dave Palone winning half the card at 2-5 
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#4
07-28-2008, 10:20 AM
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I've been saying for a while now that Excess Capital should run in a stakes race. . . I wish I had known he was going to run in this spot so I could've interviewed Hennig for my article.
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#5
07-28-2008, 10:28 AM
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hennig was on sirius on saturday and said he was scratching out of the saturday race to run in this spot. he said it was out of character for him to run a maiden in a stake race. but he felt every type of figure he looked at said the horse belongs here because he had been losing to monsters in his maiden races. not as good as interviewing him, but thats what i remember hope it helps. i will be throwing him in my wagers for sure.
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#6
07-28-2008, 10:29 AM
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Quote:
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#7
07-28-2008, 10:31 AM
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Steve - I agree with you very strongly about Bambolina. . .
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#8
07-28-2008, 11:09 AM
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I too like the August Rush add on in the 5th, M. Brew's according to Bris average 27K, this one was bought from Adena Springs for 75K. So they must have liked something in this one.
The Pletcher is about average in cost for an Unbridled's Song along with the Fu Peg Motion will be bet hard one would think. No value going there in a best guess race. I'll try August Rush if the price is there.
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#16
07-28-2008, 12:59 PM
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Quote:
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#18
07-28-2008, 01:57 PM
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Not often I put this much on a winner, but put 30 win on wanderin Boy. Just cause I thought J-Lepp would give him the proper ride. Not a super return, but 6-5 not too bad.
__________________
 The Prodical Son Has Returned
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#20
07-28-2008, 02:03 PM
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what's a prodical son?
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Linear Mode
