7/28: Saratoga (Amsterdam)
 

Sunday offered further proof that good wagering will overciome bad handicapping on a regular basis. After struggling all day long to find combinations inter or intra-race, a heavy win bet and key of "Best Value" selection Macho Again in the Jim Dandy solved all ills. The Dallas Stewart-trained, West Point-owned son of Macho Uno held off Pyro in a great edition of this Travers prep and paid a fat $18.40. Keying Macho Again with Tiz Now Tiz Then (2nd/3rd) with "All" cost just $20 and returned $292. Other than the 'Dandy' hit, the day was frustrating. Hope you did OK.


SARATOGA RACE COURSE

10th OFF THE TURF ONLY... Pre-Scratches...

1st: NYB-OC/N2X, 3+, 9f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Brookhaven's Money 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #3 Lorccan 8-1 WON
Next Best: #1e SCR (for wagering purposes)


2nd: MDN CLM, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2e Contessa entry 5-1 6th/7th
Best Value: #8 Golden Guska 8-1 11th
Next Best: #10 Arrrrr 9-2 WON


3rd: OC/C, 3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Mr. Umphrey 5-2 4th
Next Best: #5 Wanderin Boy 8-5 WON


4th: NYB-OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Motion entry (2b Absolute Heaven prefered SCR) 5-1 8th
Next Best: #9 Blitzen Too 2-1 4th
Best Value: #1 Stormy Relations 9-2 2nd
Super Add: #3e Bush entry 7-2 5th/7th


5th: MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #7 Bambolina 12-1 6th
Most Likely: #3 Amanwella 3-1 7th
Next Best: #8 Banker's Choice 20-1 5th
Super Add: #12 August Rush 6-1 WON


6th: NYB-MSW, 3+, 8.5f-T (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Pegasian 3-1 7th
Next Best: #8 Iron Gate 4-1 5th
Best Value: #10 Fortissi More 8-1 4th
Super Add: #4 Fra Lippo 5-1 3rd


7th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 CHAUETTE 6-1 3rd
Best Value (Beyond the above): #7 Horseshoe Buoy 10-1 7th
Next Best: #9 Fiona Freud 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #5 Alyssa Giovanna 5-1 4th; #11 Donna's Sandee 8-1 WON

.10 SUPER SPOT PLAY: Key 2 1st/2nd with 5-7-9-11 (1x4x3x2 + 4x1x3x2 = 48 x .10 = $4.80) Play for .30 ($14.40)


The Lillian Russell, F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Windy 3-1 4th
Best Value: #4 Are We Dreamin 12-1 5th
Next Best: #7 Silver Knockers 10-1 2nd
Super Add: #6 Inside Passage 6-1 6th


9th: 16th Amsterdam (Gr. II), 3yo, 6.5f (DD)

Ah.. The Amsterdam... Popularly known on Derby Trail as the ""Could it be Court Folly?"

Race features what may be the least lucky maiden in the history of racing, Excess Capital. Frankel very well may scratch Fidelio.

Most Likely: #3 Desert Key 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #2 DEVEREUX 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Silver Edition 7-2 4th


10th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 8.5f-OFF THE TURF (Super)

CHANGES NOT YET ANNOUNCED BUT DEFINITELY OFF GRASS...

Of those likely to run...

Most Likely: #11 Irish Bride 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #3 SCR
Next Best: #7 Royal Skip 30-1 WON
Super Add: #15 SCR


@$75 P4 Play:

7: 2-5-7-9-11
8: 3-4-6-7
9: 2-3
10: 3/SCR-11

5x4x2x1 = $40


Good luck!
Steve

Rarely, and I do mean rarely, do I get excited about having a Monday off work. I am excited to have this day off for just this reason, I will be at Scioto Downs in a couple hours betting a full Toga card.

My typical Monday wagering options include $4,000 claimers at Thistle, $5,000 claimers at Calder and the occasional Meadows fiasco with Dave Palone winning half the card at 2-5:zz:

NBD, but Wanderin Boy is 8-5 on the ML.

I've been saying for a while now that Excess Capital should run in a stakes race. . . I wish I had known he was going to run in this spot so I could've interviewed Hennig for my article.

hennig was on sirius on saturday and said he was scratching out of the saturday race to run in this spot. he said it was out of character for him to run a maiden in a stake race. but he felt every type of figure he looked at said the horse belongs here because he had been losing to monsters in his maiden races. not as good as interviewing him, but thats what i remember hope it helps. i will be throwing him in my wagers for sure.

Curious if he would have explained that it was prospective buyers of the colt that nominated him, and not the current owners... The deal didn't happen, but the connections took advantage of the nom.

Steve - I agree with you very strongly about Bambolina. . .

I too like the August Rush add on in the 5th, M. Brew's according to Bris average 27K, this one was bought from Adena Springs for 75K. So they must have liked something in this one.
The Pletcher is about average in cost for an Unbridled's Song along with the Fu Peg Motion will be bet hard one would think. No value going there in a best guess race. I'll try August Rush if the price is there.

I caught that also... Lots of good trainer karma and War Chant /Turf..

Race 5
 

Is there no love for Remedy? Lion Heart on top and Phone Trick on the bottom. Those are some pretty speedy works for Assmussen. 8-1 M/L may play catch me if you can from the rail....

Race 1:
$10 dbl 1-5/2-10

Early Pick 4

2 - 1,2,8
3 - 3,5
4 - 3,9
5 - 1,3,9,12

GL

The nice thing about this race(5th) is if you beat the 2 probable favorites in the Pletcher and Motion, you are probably going to get a good payoff. Wide open race.

I cant believe arrrrr went off 9/2

How annoying was the call of the race? Last time at Belmont I had to turn off the sound half way through.

Im sure, but im at work, cant see or hear the races, only handicapp see results and post here.

ambidaxtrous should romp here

Not often I put this much on a winner, but put 30 win on wanderin Boy. Just cause I thought J-Lepp would give him the proper ride. Not a super return, but 6-5 not too bad.

Cagey Girl, good thing I missed that. Wow.