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#1
05-07-2008, 05:46 AM
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5/7: Churchill Selections (P6 & Hi-5 C/O's)
Post-Derby bonanza carryovers at Churchill Wednesday (P6 & Hi-5), and in fact carries abound around the country!
CHURCHILL DOWNS: $410,599 (Hi 5: $331,000) BELMONT PARK: $48,557 BAY MEADOWS: $36,399 PIMLICO: $32,693 Derby Day play not as rewarding as Oaks Day with only Denis of Cork high on our monitor, attempt to beat Big Brown proved futile, and Eight Belles not in our bets. But went back to thoughts on top 4 and realized I had a positive view of Brown, Belles and Ekati. 20 Big Brown (Desormeaux/Dutrow, Jr.) 3-1 (7-2): Serious, legit ML fave but figures a play-against on many levels; Needs to be as special as confident conditioner believes.. 5 Eight Belles (Saez/Jones) 20-1 (9-1): Clever conditioner got his Oaks win Friday with super nice stablemate of this grey daughter of Unbridled's Song and now tries for rarest of doubles here; Bred nicely for off-going, gets 5 pounds from boys and certainly fast enough to compete, but have concern about stretch from 8.5f to 10f without intermediate stop; Not discounting her chances to run well, but not overusing at underlay number either; Saver on exotic tix.. 16 Denis of Cork (Borel/Carroll) 20-1 (26-1): Carroll and connections waited longest to get in to rose run but saw horse blossoming as they did; No one has had better pre-Derby preparations; Off-going a slight concern as Harlan's Holiday colt had to really work for that wet NoLa win; Rooting for.. 2 Tale of Ekati (Coa/Tagg) 15-1 (45-1): Tagg keeps returning to scene of Funny Cide score, and this year brings pair; Hard to imagine Wood winner going off at price noted, but slow finish staying in many people's memory; Expect solid try.. Top pick Smooth Air saw his Derby chances over nearly immediately when he got fractious in the gate as part of a chain reaction and broke upwards when the bell rang. He came out 19th, and Manny Cruz did all he could to gain position, but having wanted to sit 7th-8th near the rear of the first flight, had little chance with the slower than anticipated pace. He'll get a 2 week break before Brian Burns and Bennie Stutts map a campaign that will include the 7f Gr. I King's Bishop at Saratoga. Game Face, Einstein and the nightcap superfecta kept the day and weekend on the positive side, and I hope you did well... CHURCHILL DOWNS 4th: OC/N$Y, F&M-3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #2 High Heritage 7-2 5th Best Value: #6 Gem Sleuth 5-1 4th Next Best: #1a (POE) Vote Early 1-1 2nd Exotics Add: #3 Fast Deal 4-1 3rd 5th: MSW, 2yo, 4.5f (P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #6 Segal 2-1 WON Best Value: #1 Persian 6-1 4th Next Best: #3 Screen Your Friend 3-1 2nd Exotics Add: #2 Mar Fina 5-1 7th 6th: CLM, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #5 Keltish Lass 3-1 6th Best Value: #2 Queen of the Ridge 5-1 5th Next Best: #8 Patricia 5-2 3rd Exotics Add: #4 C B T Snakeye 8-1 2nd 7th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #3 Late SCR Best Value: #8 Drop Dead Legs 8-1 8th Next Best: #2 Lil Tee Pipe 6-1 4th Exotics Add: #6 SCR 8th: ALW/N2X, F&M-3+, 1m-T (DD, Super) Most Likely: #4 Loh Collado 2-1 4th Best Value: #7 SCR Next Best: #1 Sprung 7-2 WON 9th: MDN CLM, 3+, 6f (Super Hi-5) #14-AE Flatter Time a must if drawing in... Most Likely: #11 Aggressive Joe 6-1 6th Best Value: #7 Going Public 5-1 5th Next Best: #8 Transpose 9-2 10th Exotics Add: #12 SCR (Sub #5 Allegiance 5-1 9th) Hi 5 Play: #2 Roscoe's Tin Man 12-1 3rd <$200 P6 Play: 4: 2-3-6 5: 6 6: 2-4-5-8 7: 1-(3/Late SCR) 8: 1-7 9: 5-11 3x1x4x2x2x2 = 96 x $2 = $192 Good luck! Steve
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984. Last edited by Kasept : 05-08-2008 at 07:27 AM. 
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#2
05-07-2008, 11:04 AM
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Race 4 - Pick 6 Begins / Carryover of $410,599
Scratch #1 Change Up (#1A Vote Early will run) Race 5 Scratch #8 Out of the Van Race 6 Scratch #6 First Installment Race 7 Jockey change #4 Silly Susan; William Trolio to ride Scratch #6 Candeed Race 8 Scratch #7 Luna Dorada Race 9 - Super Hi-5 / Carryover of $331,928 Medication change #6 Allegiance - will race on Lasix and adjunct medication Scratch #12 Reform School Scratch AE #13 Immediatedeparture Scratch AE #14 Flatter Time Scratch AE #15 It's Czarbaby Scratch AE #16 Evansville Glitter
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#3
05-07-2008, 11:11 AM
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you leaning heavily on the Asmussen firster? they paid a good amount for him as a 2YO in training, so I'm guessing he can run, but I'd love to hear from Drugs or someone else who knows these sales what they think. the works are such a tough read with him, since he never pushes them in the morning.
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please use generalizations and non-truths when arguing your side, thank you
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#4
05-07-2008, 11:14 AM
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Quote:
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#5
05-07-2008, 11:25 AM
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Quote:
Very tricky card, not a whole lot of solid singles- which means this could carry over again if the potentials such as this one go down.
__________________
please use generalizations and non-truths when arguing your side, thank you
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#6
05-07-2008, 11:27 AM
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Quote:
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#7
05-07-2008, 11:28 AM
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Quote:
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#8
05-07-2008, 01:09 PM
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lets try the following.......................
1-2-3-6- with 2-3-5-6 with 5-8 with 1-3 with 1-4-5 with 1-5-8-10-11
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Linear Mode
