5/7: Churchill Selections (P6 & Hi-5 C/O's)
 

Post-Derby bonanza carryovers at Churchill Wednesday (P6 & Hi-5), and in fact carries abound around the country!

CHURCHILL DOWNS: $410,599 (Hi 5: $331,000)
BELMONT PARK: $48,557
BAY MEADOWS: $36,399
PIMLICO: $32,693

Derby Day play not as rewarding as Oaks Day with only Denis of Cork high on our monitor, attempt to beat Big Brown proved futile, and Eight Belles not in our bets. But went back to thoughts on top 4 and realized I had a positive view of Brown, Belles and Ekati.

20 Big Brown (Desormeaux/Dutrow, Jr.) 3-1 (7-2): Serious, legit ML fave but figures a play-against on many levels; Needs to be as special as confident conditioner believes..

5 Eight Belles (Saez/Jones) 20-1 (9-1): Clever conditioner got his Oaks win Friday with super nice stablemate of this grey daughter of Unbridled's Song and now tries for rarest of doubles here; Bred nicely for off-going, gets 5 pounds from boys and certainly fast enough to compete, but have concern about stretch from 8.5f to 10f without intermediate stop; Not discounting her chances to run well, but not overusing at underlay number either; Saver on exotic tix..

16 Denis of Cork (Borel/Carroll) 20-1 (26-1): Carroll and connections waited longest to get in to rose run but saw horse blossoming as they did; No one has had better pre-Derby preparations; Off-going a slight concern as Harlan's Holiday colt had to really work for that wet NoLa win; Rooting for..

2 Tale of Ekati (Coa/Tagg) 15-1 (45-1): Tagg keeps returning to scene of Funny Cide score, and this year brings pair; Hard to imagine Wood winner going off at price noted, but slow finish staying in many people's memory; Expect solid try..

Top pick Smooth Air saw his Derby chances over nearly immediately when he got fractious in the gate as part of a chain reaction and broke upwards when the bell rang. He came out 19th, and Manny Cruz did all he could to gain position, but having wanted to sit 7th-8th near the rear of the first flight, had little chance with the slower than anticipated pace. He'll get a 2 week break before Brian Burns and Bennie Stutts map a campaign that will include the 7f Gr. I King's Bishop at Saratoga.

Game Face, Einstein and the nightcap superfecta kept the day and weekend on the positive side, and I hope you did well...


CHURCHILL DOWNS


4th: OC/N$Y, F&M-3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 High Heritage 7-2 5th
Best Value: #6 Gem Sleuth 5-1 4th
Next Best: #1a (POE) Vote Early 1-1 2nd
Exotics Add: #3 Fast Deal 4-1 3rd


5th: MSW, 2yo, 4.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Segal 2-1 WON
Best Value: #1 Persian 6-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Screen Your Friend 3-1 2nd
Exotics Add: #2 Mar Fina 5-1 7th


6th: CLM, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Keltish Lass 3-1 6th
Best Value: #2 Queen of the Ridge 5-1 5th
Next Best: #8 Patricia 5-2 3rd
Exotics Add: #4 C B T Snakeye 8-1 2nd


7th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Late SCR
Best Value: #8 Drop Dead Legs 8-1 8th
Next Best: #2 Lil Tee Pipe 6-1 4th
Exotics Add: #6 SCR


8th: ALW/N2X, F&M-3+, 1m-T (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Loh Collado 2-1 4th
Best Value: #7 SCR
Next Best: #1 Sprung 7-2 WON


9th: MDN CLM, 3+, 6f (Super Hi-5)

#14-AE Flatter Time a must if drawing in...

Most Likely: #11 Aggressive Joe 6-1 6th
Best Value: #7 Going Public 5-1 5th
Next Best: #8 Transpose 9-2 10th
Exotics Add: #12 SCR (Sub #5 Allegiance 5-1 9th)
Hi 5 Play: #2 Roscoe's Tin Man 12-1 3rd

<$200 P6 Play:

4: 2-3-6
5: 6
6: 2-4-5-8
7: 1-(3/Late SCR)
8: 1-7
9: 5-11

3x1x4x2x2x2 = 96 x $2 = $192


Good luck!
Steve

Race 4 - Pick 6 Begins / Carryover of $410,599
Scratch #1 Change Up (#1A Vote Early will run)

Race 5
Scratch #8 Out of the Van

Race 6
Scratch #6 First Installment

Race 7
Jockey change #4 Silly Susan; William Trolio to ride
Scratch #6 Candeed

Race 8
Scratch #7 Luna Dorada

Race 9 - Super Hi-5 / Carryover of $331,928
Medication change #6 Allegiance - will race on Lasix and adjunct medication
Scratch #12 Reform School
Scratch AE #13 Immediatedeparture
Scratch AE #14 Flatter Time
Scratch AE #15 It's Czarbaby
Scratch AE #16 Evansville Glitter

you leaning heavily on the Asmussen firster? they paid a good amount for him as a 2YO in training, so I'm guessing he can run, but I'd love to hear from Drugs or someone else who knows these sales what they think. the works are such a tough read with him, since he never pushes them in the morning.

Don't think you have a choice but to lean on him given that the rest are question marks from which you simply cannot draw a conclusion.

It's either him... or 6 deep. I went 6 deep in wagering and contest.

Very tricky card, not a whole lot of solid singles- which means this could carry over again if the potentials such as this one go down.

I disagree, I only see potential for craziness in the 2nd and 4th leg, and obviously the last if the 7 or 8 don't run true

Funny you say that because I just printed out Thursday CD for that reason. One of those sequences where you have 6 $10-$12 horses and no one hits...

lets try the following.......................
1-2-3-6- with 2-3-5-6 with 5-8 with 1-3 with 1-4-5 with 1-5-8-10-11