Junior Alvarado's career stats

[Calzone Lord]

5,709 mounts, 966 wins, 17% wins, $2.02 ROI

It looks like there's a good chance he'll be the first jockey in 20+ years who, as far as I'm aware of, will get to 1k career wins with a profitable ROI.

However, the most interesting thing in all of this, is when you break down his stats by distance.

* Races at distances less than 6 furlongs: 66-for-541 (12% wins) $1.20 ROI (he's cancerous in short races!)

* 6 furlongs: 270-for-1,565 (17% wins) $2.04 ROI

* 6.5 furlongs: 54-for-322 (17% wins) $2.38 ROI

* 7 furlongs: 65-for-383 (17% wins) $2.16 ROI

* 7.5 furlongs: 6-for-23 (26% wins) $3.46 ROI

* 8 furlongs: 224-for-1,203 (19% wins) $2.48 ROI

He's profitable at every single one of these five distances. And at 8 furlongs, his numbers are radically better in one-turn mile races than two-turn mile races.

* Distances beyond a Mile: 282-for-1,671 (17% wins) $1.81 ROI


The stats indicate that the guy is like a savant in elongated one-turn races.

Career at Belmont Park:

* 6.5 furlongs: 9-for-33 (27% wins) $3.13 ROI

* 7 furlongs dirt: 10-for-67 (15% wins) $2.07 ROI

* 7 furlongs turf: 13-for-70 (19% wins) $3.63 ROI

* 7.5 furlongs dirt: 1-for-2 (50% wins) $5.70 ROI

* 8 furlongs dirt: 28-for-99 (28% wins) $2.34 ROI

* 8 furlongs turf: 16-for-73 (22% wins) $3.79 ROI

* 8.5 furlongs dirt: 11-for-48 (23% wins) $3.01 ROI

* 8.5 furlongs Turf: 26-for-156 (17% wins) $2.16 ROI


That's a clean sweep, a profitable ROI across all possible categories at distances ranging from 6.5 furlongs to 8.5 furlongs, at Belmont Park. 8f turf races are basically one-turn races at Belmont. The dog-leg is more severe at 8.5f on turf, I believe.

Junior Alvarado's ROI at Gulfstream Park is $8.53 in one-turn dirt miles. An impossibly large ROI for an 88 mount sampling.

There seems to be a clear conclusion. Piss poor jockey in short sprints. The best jockey in the entire game in elongated one-turn races, and an average jock in 2-turn route races.