Junior Alvarado's career stats
 

5,709 mounts, 966 wins, 17% wins, $2.02 ROI

It looks like there's a good chance he'll be the first jockey in 20+ years who, as far as I'm aware of, will get to 1k career wins with a profitable ROI.

However, the most interesting thing in all of this, is when you break down his stats by distance.

* Races at distances less than 6 furlongs: 66-for-541 (12% wins) $1.20 ROI (he's cancerous in short races!)

* 6 furlongs: 270-for-1,565 (17% wins) $2.04 ROI

* 6.5 furlongs: 54-for-322 (17% wins) $2.38 ROI

* 7 furlongs: 65-for-383 (17% wins) $2.16 ROI

* 7.5 furlongs: 6-for-23 (26% wins) $3.46 ROI

* 8 furlongs: 224-for-1,203 (19% wins) $2.48 ROI

He's profitable at every single one of these five distances. And at 8 furlongs, his numbers are radically better in one-turn mile races than two-turn mile races.

* Distances beyond a Mile: 282-for-1,671 (17% wins) $1.81 ROI


The stats indicate that the guy is like a savant in elongated one-turn races.

Career at Belmont Park:

* 6.5 furlongs: 9-for-33 (27% wins) $3.13 ROI

* 7 furlongs dirt: 10-for-67 (15% wins) $2.07 ROI

* 7 furlongs turf: 13-for-70 (19% wins) $3.63 ROI

* 7.5 furlongs dirt: 1-for-2 (50% wins) $5.70 ROI

* 8 furlongs dirt: 28-for-99 (28% wins) $2.34 ROI

* 8 furlongs turf: 16-for-73 (22% wins) $3.79 ROI

* 8.5 furlongs dirt: 11-for-48 (23% wins) $3.01 ROI

* 8.5 furlongs Turf: 26-for-156 (17% wins) $2.16 ROI


That's a clean sweep, a profitable ROI across all possible categories at distances ranging from 6.5 furlongs to 8.5 furlongs, at Belmont Park. 8f turf races are basically one-turn races at Belmont. The dog-leg is more severe at 8.5f on turf, I believe.

Junior Alvarado's ROI at Gulfstream Park is $8.53 in one-turn dirt miles. An impossibly large ROI for an 88 mount sampling.

There seems to be a clear conclusion. Piss poor jockey in short sprints. The best jockey in the entire game in elongated one-turn races, and an average jock in 2-turn route races.

Back when he was at Arlington Park, the one year they allowed jockeys to play their own song after winning. His was the ''All I do is win'' song.
Got really tired of hearing it as he in fact did win a lot.

That was actually his choice of song?

Modern crap, rap music is friggen terrible.

I couldn't even make it to the 2 minute mark...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GGXzlRoNtHU

This song is so bad, none of the strippers around here even have it in their Top 3.

What's interesting about this, that I didn't note in the first post -- is that they run 8.5f turf races on both the Inner Turf and Widener turf, at Belmont Park.

On the Inner, he's: 12-for-88 (14%) with a $1.34 ROI

On the Widener, he's: 14-for-68 (21%) with a $3.21 ROI


The Inner turf races at 8.5f at Belmont are virtually two-turn races, where as the 8.5f races on the Widener are more like one-turn races that start with a dog-leg.

Would you take the time and do this type of breakdown for Maragh and Lezcano?

He's got a huge dance card for Saturday:

Race 1: ALW race: No mount

Race 2: Easy Goer: 30/1 morning line Howl -- the outright longest shot on the ML

Race 3: Brooklyn: No mount

Race 4: Jaipur: No mount

Race 5: Woody Stephens: No Mount

Race 6: Acorn: Tiz So Sweet (20/1 morning line)

Race 7: Ogden Phipps: No Mount

Race 8: Just A Game: No Mount

Race 9: Met Mile: No Mount

Race 10: Manhatten: No Mount

Race 11: Belmont Stakes: No Mount


Considering his stats in one-turn mile races, and considering he won the last major one-turn mile race in New York (Flat Out $15.00 in the Cigar Mile) -- you think he'd get a shot. Obviously, trainers and owners are entirely unaware of this stuff though. They just usually go by 'brand names' and win-percentage.

It's amusing to see Scott Stevens with a ride in the Met Mile. Over the last 10 years, he's had 4,052 mounts at Turf Paradise and compiled a win percentage of 17% and a brutal ROI of $1.33 -- the guy is a statistical cancer at Turf Paradise, and he's riding in the Met.

Obviously, Scott Stevens has a great reputation as a gentleman, though. HRTV did a nice piece on him and he came off as a very good guy. He's Gary Stevens brother. It would be cool to see him win.

At one point, Mike Smith had a profitable ROI for his career in races at 1 1/4 miles or longer. Wonder if he still is.

1,054 mounts
170 wins
16.1% wins
$1.94 ROI

Junior Alvarado got career win #972 today on 28/1 shot Blue Sixty Four in the 6th race at Belmont Park. Blue Sixty Four came into the race with a 1-for-49 record in her career.

It was a 6 furlong race that collapsed. Horse sliced her way inside of traffic and just got up. Paid $58.00 to win.

He still has to maintain a profitable ROI through his next 28 winners --- but it would take a pretty dramatic slump in order for him not to pull it off.

I think he has a big shot in race 1 tomorrow on a decent priced horse.

His ride in the Bed O' Roses today won't make any "best of" lists. Never a good idea to take a speed horse back.