Quote:
Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin
I'm not sure about the polls in this case. All the betting sites still have Obama as about a -180 favorite. In general, I trust the betting sites more than the polls for the simple reason that these sites would lose millions of dollars if they didn't know how to make a good betting line. That being said, they're not going to be correct every time.
Before the debates, they thought Obama had around a 75-80% chance of winning. Right now they are giving Obama a 62% chance of winning. That seems a little high to me. My guess is that the race is very close. I would probably make Obama a slight favorite right now, maybe -120 or something like that. I think Romney has a reasonable chance to win.
If anyone ever wants to check the exchange wagering lines to see what percentage chance they think each guy has of winning, here is the link:
http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/ |
IMO Betting sites simply try to predict how the public will bet, not the outcome of an election similar to what a morning lines oddsmaker does at the track. Then odds are obviously changed depending on bets coming in.
Thus the change in odds makes Romney the wise guy pic of the race.