Quote:
Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin
I'm not sure about the polls in this case. All the betting sites still have Obama as about a -180 favorite. In general, I trust the betting sites more than the polls for the simple reason that these sites would lose millions of dollars if they didn't know how to make a good betting line. That being said, they're not going to be correct every time.
Before the debates, they thought Obama had around a 75-80% chance of winning. Right now they are giving Obama a 62% chance of winning. That seems a little high to me. My guess is that the race is very close. I would probably make Obama a slight favorite right now, maybe -120 or something like that. I think Romney has a reasonable chance to win.
If anyone ever wants to check the exchange wagering lines to see what percentage chance they think each guy has of winning, here is the link:
http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/ |
I agree with you that the betting sites are fairly accurate.
I'm not surprised Romney got a 1-2% bump out of his debate, as being a liar isn't as important to his base as "being a tough mother beating on Obama". They like that. But Romney has to win nearly all the swing states, and he's quite behind there. He not only has to hope his bump holds, he has to hope he continues to gain.
Another highly accurate guy is Nate Silver.
Five-Thirty-Eight has the daily tracker as Chance of Winning, Obama 76.9%, Romney 23.1%
Electoral college, however, is still 297.4 to 240.6. Mitt needs 270. Won't get it.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/