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Old 08-08-2010, 10:04 AM
hockey2315 hockey2315 is offline
Del Mar
 
Join Date: May 2006
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Originally Posted by NTamm1215 View Post
Between how strongly Asmussen has done with 2nd time starting 2YOs at Saratoga and how much the firsters' pedigrees indicate they're going to need time, I think Time Counts is going to be very tough in the 4th.

I'll let Gales tell us if Miss Smarty Pants is ready to go since he seems to be in with that barn but Devotion Unbridled lost her debut. Her first foal to race was 0-3 at the age of 2. The extent of Benzel's accomplishments with 2YO firsters over the last five years is a win by Tiz True in a turf route in November 2008. This is a horse who's 3-1 on the morning line!

As far as Classy Touch, Flute lost her debut and none of her five foals to race have won at first asking.

Summer Colony's first foal to race needed three starts to break her maiden. Summer Colony herself needed 7 races to break her maiden.

That leaves you with Sovereign Crisis, who worked well at the sale prompting that gigantic purchase price. Her dam was unraced but her prior two foals to race both lost their debuts and Sir Silver Fox, her first foal, needed six races to break his maiden.

Of course, the board is going to say a lot about this race but the public completely whiffed in the 6th yesterday as the entry was heavily played from the start. Once they found Chad Brown's horse he was bet down to co-favoritism and kept the tremendous run going he's on with firsters.

Fun race.

NT
The 8 wouldn't shock me at all, but I'm going to use the two longshot who have run before and then protect with the 8 in exactas. Nicky's Way has pedigree appeal getting more ground considering her sib was a router, and the first few strides of her debut piqued my interest. She shot out of the gate, but then quickly dropped out of it. I'm almost positive this was a reaction to the muddy track-she was completely spinning her wheels. There's clearly more ability here-and more early speed-than meets the eye and Hennig already brought home a bomb second timer last week.

The 6 exits the same race as Nicky's Way and I think she also had trouble gripping the track. She stayed in it a little longer, earning a 92 early pace fig, and the added blinkers make me think she has to be gunned early. She chased a horse in her debut that might be ok, and owns the highest BSF of the three that have run before, for whatever that's worth.
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