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Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
I think you're missing my point....
Sir Greeley is a nice horse. I am not disputing this. Strong Contendor had an undeserved reputation last year. I am not a fan of his trainer and not a fan of him particularly. However, he did run three pretty good races last year. His first start of 2006, the Dwyer ( yes, I understand the fig may be high as it was a tricky day and yes I know he had a perfect trip ) and the Super Derby. None of these were spectacular efforts but all were pretty good. Thus, I believe the possibility exists that he will be one of the better older horses running this year. I also won't be surprised when he turns out to be a complete fraud. However, he is FAR more likely to win a Grade 1 than Sir Greeley as we know Sir Greely has next to zero chance to win one and Strong Contendor is still an unproven commodity. Do I think he is a favorite to win a Grade 1? At this point, no he isn't, but he also is less than 5-1 to win one this year. Sir Greeley is legitimately over 30-1 and probably closer to 50-1 ( if not higher ) to win one.
Do I expect Strong Performer to finish ahead of Sir Greeley should they meet this weekend? Well, I would need to see the pps, and at this point I have no opinion on that. But, I don't think it's arguable that he has more upside. That is really all I am trying to say. Sir Greeley is a known commodity.
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So do you think Strong Pretender is a better horse than Sun King? Sir Greeley dusted Sun King at this track and distance last year.
5-1 for Strong Pretender to win a G1 this year????? Even if he lives up to his trainers expectations he is still 5-1. There are so few opportunities to win a G1 in the older horse division and with horses like Invasor and Premium Tap coming back those chances will be further limited. Then throw in a bunch of 3yos from his crop that have as good a chance as him of moving forward (SNS, Lawyer Ron, Discreet Cat, even Steppenwolfer and Jazil plus a couple wild cards like Sunriver, Deputy Glitters, and High Cotton) and you are looking at way more than 5-1 before even including the Sun Kings and Wild Deserts and other known commodities.
The fact that Sir Greeley is a known commodity is why I love this matchup. No one can try and claim that Strong Pretender is as great as he's been made out to be if he can't beat Sir Greeley. Although I'm sure they'll try. Some mysterious anti-nag bias will have cropped up and compromised Strong Pretender.