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-   -   The leading poly sire is... (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=8607)

sumitas 01-08-2007 05:02 PM

The leading poly sire is...
 
from 8/6/06 - 1/10/07 win% with at least 10 starts ---data from ALL WEATHER TRACKS ONLY
HADIF 45% from 11 starts and 5 wins--2 runners
http://www.pedigreequery.com/hadif

40% from 10 starts and 4 wins WELBRED FRED is 2nd--2 runners
http://www.pedigreequery.com/welbred+fred

UNBRIDLED JET 39% 28 starts 11 wins--6 runners
http://www.pedigreequery.com/unbridled+jet

STORM AND A HALF 38% 16 starts 6 wins--9 runners
http://www.pedigreequery.com/storm+and+a+half
source:thoroughfax

DISTANT VIEW 36% 14 starts 5 wins--5 runners
http://www.pedigreequery.com/distant+view2

AeWingnut 01-08-2007 05:24 PM

and if you see a horse sired by Othello running at Turfway .. bet him no matter what his odds are. 50-1 , 70-1 .. don't matter
seen it twice - bet it once

paisjpq 01-08-2007 05:27 PM

Sumitas...I appreciate the info, although I think the small sample size hurts the argument some...How many of these are repeat starts by the same horse vs. starts from unique runners?

sumitas 01-08-2007 05:34 PM

see my addition to the first post

highest itm %
HADIF 82%
DANEHILL 69%
CITY ZIP 64 %
ELNADIM 64%
THREE WONDERS 64%
UNBRIDLED JET 64%
TRIPPI 63%
JP HAMER 60%
MONTBROOK 60%

AeWingnut 01-08-2007 05:36 PM

Thanks for doing the research

paisjpq 01-08-2007 05:37 PM

using the number of runners I would say that Storm and a Half actually has the best record since it can't be argued that a horse just gets one or two freak runners that love the poly. high percentage of winners combined with high number of unique runners is what I would base my data on...but thats JMO:)

The Bid 01-08-2007 05:38 PM

I have a couple Distant Views that will be debuting at TWP in a few weeks. We'll see how they run.

sumitas 01-08-2007 05:49 PM

all the best...you got to say they have a shot there.
DISTANT VIEW is 50% itm on the poly.

AeWingnut 01-08-2007 06:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Bid
I have a couple Distant Views that will be debuting at TWP in a few weeks. We'll see how they run.

if they can stay off the rail

Danzig 01-08-2007 06:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by paisjpq
using the number of runners I would say that Storm and a Half actually has the best record since it can't be argued that a horse just gets one or two freak runners that love the poly. high percentage of winners combined with high number of unique runners is what I would base my data on...but thats JMO:)

bye bye arkansas?

paisjpq 01-08-2007 06:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig188
bye bye arkansas?

Que? :confused:

Danzig 01-08-2007 07:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by paisjpq
Que? :confused:


lol
was talking about storm and a half--he stands in arkansas, was wondering if having some success (esp with downthedustyroad) might move him out of ark??

paisjpq 01-08-2007 07:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig188
lol
was talking about storm and a half--he stands in arkansas, was wondering if having some success (esp with downthedustyroad) might move him out of ark??

gotcha...I wouldn't worry about losing him just yet;) sample is too small IMO...but if he keeps it up maybe...who knows

JJP 01-08-2007 07:12 PM

IMO none of the top Polytrack sires were on that list. IMO some of the top sires are: Grand Slam, Running Stag, Petionville & Sea of Secrets.

sumitas 01-09-2007 12:18 AM

GRAND SLAM 19% wins from 146 starts 28 wins --66 runners--itm 43%
RUNNING STAG 19% wins from 93 starts--32 runners--itm 34%
PETIONVILLE 11% wins from 79 starts--37 runners--itm 30%
SEA OF SECRETS 8% wins from 59 starts--23 runners--itm 27%

most starts 197 BOLD EXECUTIVE 14% wins --61 runners--itm 39%
most runners 67 TALE OF THE CAT 81 starts 18% wins--itm 45%

COZZENE is one of my favs 27% wins from 26 starts---16 runners--itm 46%
TOUR D'OR 29% wins from 24 starts--6 runners--itm 50%

source:thoroughfax

JJP 01-09-2007 10:04 AM

But what about the ROIs? Petitionville has already had two $120 plus winners.

Tale of the Cat is another good one. Most of the Storm Cat line seem to take to it.

Do you have numbers on Pioneering, Storm Cat's 1/2 bro?

sumitas 01-09-2007 06:43 PM

PIONEERING 7% winners from 73 starts--33 runners--itm 33%

the AP Indys are getting off slow although AP INDY himself is 40% itm; the best is STEPHEN GOT EVEN 17% wins 75 starts--30 runners--itm 35%

DEPUTY MINISTERS are off slow topped by WILLOWY AMBASSADOR 20% wins from 25 starts--4 runners--itm 36%
and FOREST CAMP 16% winners from 51 starts--28 runners--itm 31%
and DEPUTY COMMANDER 14% wins from 96 starts--39 runners-itm 43%

SKIP AWAY gets a lot of poly ink 19% wins 113 starts--35 runners--44% itm

Danzig 01-09-2007 06:44 PM

always liked cozzene, he's getting up there in age tho now. enjoy him while you can.

paisjpq 01-09-2007 06:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sumitas

SKIP AWAY gets a lot of poly ink 19% wins 113 starts--35 runners--44% itm

MY favorite:) I always look for his on the poly.

ManilaRose 01-09-2007 09:23 PM

For what it's worth Military had the highest average winning purse of any KY sire at Turfway in 05-06.


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