Derby Trail Forums - 1/18: Aqueduct ($26k C/O); Gulfstream (P4); Oaklawn (Smarty Jones)

Struggles continued Sunday with a rather futile try at Santa Anita that yielded only even money favorite winners in the 4th and 9th. Of course there was no shame in missing utterly implausible El Encino heroine Pretty Unusual ($61.40), yet another Barry Abrams-Unusual Heat product that emerged late under Chantal Sutherland. Add the 30-1 upsetter to $14.80 High Standards in the 6th and $11.80 High Success in the 7th, and it's a little surprising that anyone hit the P6, let alone three winners of $59,800 each. Serious rainstorms threaten the holiday card at Arcadia on the evening of the Eclipse Awards in Beverly Hills.

A little rain and wind are expected at Jamaica today, but a carryover of $25,919 and an interesting sequence, including the MLK Day standard Jimmy Winkfield, make Aqueduct the prime focus today. Gulfstream P4 and the Smarty Jones, Oaklawn's kickoff to their sophomore series, are below as well as I work to break out of a pronounced funk.

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: MSW, 4yo, 1m-70y (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Itsagoodtendollars 3-1 WON
Next Best: #3 Ex Pat 2-1 5th
Best Value: #7 Celtic Law 5-1 4th
Super Add: #2 Greatsilversaint 3-1 2nd

5th: NYB-MDN CLM, 4+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

2-1 fave Classroom Legend feels underlaid in weak group of bottom level state-bred maidens..

Most Likely: #2 Classroom Legend 2-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Raging Meese 5-1 2nd
Best Value: #1 Smarter Alex 10-1 3rd
Super Add: #8 Digger Karakorum 5-2 WON

6th: CLM/N1Y, F&M-4+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Boss Tiffany 1-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Gattinara 8-5 2nd
Best Value: #2 Divorce Court 8-1 5th
Super Add: #8 Sinful Ways 15-1 7th

7th: NYB-ALW/N1X, 3yo, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1e R. Dutrow entry 8-5 3rd
Next Best: #3 Out of Respect 5-2 WON
Exotics Use: #2 Dahlgren Chapel 3-1 2nd

8th: 26th Jimmy Winkfield, 3yo, 6f (DD)

Best Value: #4 Love Who 5-1 5th
Most Likely: #5 Citizen's Arrest 1-1 4th

9th: NYB-MSW, 3yo-F, 5.5f (Super)

Doubt favored Contessa Menifee filly is much pumpkin, but hard to expect all of the promising-looking firsters to finish ahead of her.. Suggest including #9 Kaitlyn Ann (12-1) in your tris and supers..

Best Value: #7 Fiddler's Zephyr 5-1 4th
Most Likely: #8 Lights Out Lisa 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Triple Latte 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #6 Gone Home 9-2 5th

<$200 P6 Play:

4: 1-3
5: 2-3
6: 4
7: 1-2-3
8: 4-5
9: 2-6-7-8

2x2x1x3x2x4 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 3-4
7: 1-2-3
8: 4-5
9: 2-4-6-7-8-9

2x3x2x6 = $72

GULFSTREAM PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: CLM, 4+, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 (POE) Bonk 5-1 2nd/3rd
Best Value: #7 Great Blade 20-1 7th
Next Best: #10 Yombo Maugere 8-1 4th (3rd for wagering)
Super Add: #13 Poacher's Moon 5-2 WON

7th: CLM, 3yo-F, 1m-Outer Turf (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Cake Walk 5-2 8th
Best Value: #3 In the Money 12-1 10th
Next Best: #9 Pay Per View 12-1 12th
Super Add: #11 Ms. N. Tarsia 12-1 2nd

8th: ALW/N1X, 3yo, 9f (DD)

Best Value: #2 Pleasant Prince 4-1 2nd
Most Likely: #5 Positive Split 5-2 3rd
Next Best: #4 Launch N Relaunch 5-1 5th

9th: MDN CLM, 3yo, 7.5f-Inner Turf (Super)

Most Likely: #6 Hudson Landing 7-2 4th
Best Value: #4 Sporty 6-1 WON
Next Best: #8 Grand Piano Man 4-1 6th
Super Add: #9 Maxxam Xpress 6-1 9th

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-3-4-8-10-13
7: 2-3-9-10
8: 2-4-5
9: 4-6

6x4x3x2 = 144 x .50 = $72

OAKLAWN PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

8th: 3rd Smarty Jones, 3yo, 1m (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Dryfly (5-2): "House" horse flashed in CD meet-ender.. WON
Best Value: #6 Crider (8-1): Developer from Asmussen TX/OK camp.. 4th
Next Best: #3 Prince Rooney (6-1): Owns field's lone open co. SW.. 12th
Super Add: #9 Pleasant Storm (8-1): 'Tap' colt 2/2 6f; Stretch a plus.. 2nd

Good luck!
Steve