Beyer Fig from Saturday
 

Curlin - 103

Blue Grass - 93

Ouch :eek: ..."poly" crap???

I'm very surprised they didn't treat the Blue Grass like a turf race and give it a higher figure.

It really was run like a turf race, and that is the way to look at it.

I really don't think that the poly track is to blame for the figure as there have been some good figures run on it, by these horses.

I say its more to do with the riders and how they decided to allow the pace to unfold. I think its a riders reaction to how the poly is playing and not wanting to compromise their horses chances.

I agree. There was no pace at all

Absolutely and for that reason any number for this race is somewhat fabricated. Beyer felt that this number worked well, as it fell in line for four of the participants, and he said even though it is a difficult number he thinks he may have actually gotten it right.

what else is he gonna say, he thinks he got it wrong? 24 hours after the race and its wrong??

What does this mean?

Time Squared got an 88 Beyer for beating one horse....

The figure for the Blue Grass is pointless anyway....but, Stream Cat, who's career top Beyer was an 88 ran 13 points faster earlier on in the card, and the filly of Mott's that won from mid-pack also ran 13 points faster.

I'm positive he cut the race loose....if he doesn't...it's like an 82

Therein lies part of the problem for making figs for turf races ( and make no mistake....this Blue Grass was essentially a turf race from a timing/figure making standpoint ). Because of the slow pace, all the participants are essentially dragged into the race, and the horses that didn't run at all get numbers they can't possibly reproduce in a competitive situation.

Take a look at some of the fields behind Honey Ryder in a Delaware turf race from a year or so ago. There was a John Pregman horse that can barely run a competitive 80 figure who received a number in the low to mid 90s simply because of the slow pace and nature of the race dynamics. This is what Beyer was referring to in our show where he said he knew what I would say about Jader. I constantly have this argument with him.

i think beyer is right on this ...he needs to give an honest account of all paramiters....and this fig is about right for what went on..

Do you know what Storm In May got in the Arkansas Derby? or what Takedown's BSF was in the Northern Spur. Just want something to compare Curlin's 103 BSF to. Also, was Street Sense's BSF also a 93? Zanjero's?

Storm in May would be an 86 based on the Beyer beaten lengths chart.

Looks like those hoping for a fair price on Street Sense will get their wish. Can't see him going off at lower than 6/1 with a 93 BSF staring bettors right in the face.

I think very little. Maybe half a point. The Derby takes more "novice" money (i.e. people who bet on races casually and only/mainly use BSFs) than any other race of the year, so I don't think all of the players that use the figures you listed above will have that much of an impact.

93 or not, I remember Street Sense last year off the poly onto Churchill...
I think that is where my money goes..

I couldn't be happier. That's pretty much exactly what I wanted to happen as far as odds.

Now I can focus on a pick-4 on Derby Day and a healthy win bet on Sense with the potential for a good return.