Place Vs. Fave/Long Exacta Running Tab
Alright here it is. (Mods-if you would, you can leave this in the Paddock for a day and then transfer it to the Contest Forum--thanks)
This will be based on a 250 Race sample starting 3/8/07 and running till enough races are run. Any horse 10-1 or over finishing second(OR FIRST) will be given a place payout((read addendum at end of Paragraph) (obviously based on a 2$ base bet)---that will then be checked for the favorite of the race being on top...If they are, the 2$ exacta payout will go in the Exacta column. If they aren't it will still count as a race towards the 250. (ADDENDUM---as Andy rightfully stated I have short changed the Place side as if the longshot won the race you would get both the place and the win---that must be added as well) The tracks used will all be large tracks with large pools that aren't skewed. AQ---GP---SA until the contest is over. Somedays there will be a number of races that qualify and others I'm sure very few. I will post after all the races are run for a given day and give a breakdown by track and then also the overall breakdown until its over. Anyone who wants to double check the numbers is of course welcome to. It will take a couple of weeks but it is worth it to have a larger sample spread against a few tracks. So, let the games begin tomorrow...GRITS we can pm each other and figure out something to bet on this. Good luck. |
You're obviously welcome to do it this way, or any way you like, but looking at past results will be faster and provide the same statistical evidence.
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a) You would probably box with the favorite thus it should count if the 10/1 horse wins and the favorite runs 2nd or vice versa
b) anything over 20/1 is a stretch IMO, should be between 10/1 and 20/1 the way Andy did it first. |
chalk players...lol at least 1/2 of it
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The box is irrelevent to this particular discussion. We are ONLY looking at place vs. second to the favorite.
We could also compare a $10 wager in another study....$6 win $4 place vs. $4 win, $2 Box with favorite and $2 second to the favorite. |
I came in on the ass end of the conversation and I look like a donkey...CARRY ON!!!
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I will look at past data and make two groups....10-1 and up and only 10-1 to 20-1.
This should be fun and informative. |
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The second one is much harder ( and will sometimes result in using both the first and second finisher ). The first is best because it's cut and dried. |
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someone has alot of time on there hands.......this about place betting vs doing an exacta with said horse on top of a lodigical fav 5/2 ..the exacta will come out on to 90 perc of the time..why the big study:D
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If all this brainpower could somehow be harnessed to benefit mankind, Al Gore could rest at night.
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