1/6: Gulfstream Park
 

This card is HARD. Fact is that if you like a horse and that horse runs well, you should get paid, especially in the 5th race. You could easily see a couple of these horses on the Derby Trail.

Race 3

#3 West to Durango (12/1ML): W2D looks like a horse that wanted nothing to do with the Poly. Has been working up a storm on Gulfstream's actual surface (not a PMM shipper). While Pitts' numbers off this type of layoff aren't particular strong, that might help the number on this horse. Those works, plus the all important jump from a 3yr to a 4yr spells PLAY ME.

Race 5

This is one hell of a race, I can find about 7 horses that I could argue. That being said, the two horses that I will be talking about #2 Green Secret and #6 Touch a Prince.

#2 Green Secret(5/1ML) is a KMc trainee that brings a typical MSW win 1st out work pattern for a STRONG 1st out trainer. Darley homebred could make some noise on 'da Trail'

#6 Touch a Prince (10/1ML) is a hunch play for me. Last year, their was an article talking about how Bobby Frankel can not be named as the trainer for PMM trainee, some Florida rule about something. Whatever the fact, rest assure that Frankel is the actual trainer of those horse and last year a few horses sunk in under Lynch's name to run really well (I think On Board Again was one of them at like 15/1 in an MSW race). Besides all that, this horse has been working well and gets Kent D.

Race 7

#3 Blazing Pursuit (20/1ML): Man do I think this horse is going to run HUGE tomorrow. Given the expected pace scenario and the great clock that Javy has in his melon, you are going to be looking at a horse that is gonna come a flying at the end and make things awful interesting. Besides that commentary, BP loves GP with 2 wins in 4 starts, and some great works since getting down to Palm Meadows. While Toner doesn't excel with layoffs, hard to ignore 15/1 or better on this horse.

Sorry, I didn't see your post or I would have posted here also.

Just finished going through the Thoro-sheets for this and I couldn't agree more, this is TOUGH.

1st: 1, Truer than True.. was going to play him last week at Calder, only thing not to like is Vet scratch and probable favorite.. 4 Mostly.. 0-2-X in last with trouble (Steve?)

2nd: Very contentious race, maybe the 8 Gold Reserve, lightly raced and shortening up.

3rd: 5 Robbies Charm ran huge # at GP last year, 3rd off layoff for this... likely favorite 7 Bedford Falls looks solid

4th: Anyone of these are fast enough to win... have been chasing 2 Sinkwich... 8 Jabbok coming off 2 consecutive tops, nice spacing

5th: 3 Laser, coming off big debut # and getting Lasix

6th: 2 Optimist Girl, fastest coming in (but not by much), off a bit of a layoff

7th: another one where all are fast enough, 1 & 4, High Finance and Hither Lane are best prices (other than Scav's Blazing Pursuit)

8th: 6 Classic Campaign, loved him in last when he missed the break, right back hopefully at a price

9th: VERY DIFFICULT, all button?

10th: 2 Hatch, only 4 starts in last 2 years, but fits...7 Cresson is very solid..
Question for Steve, or anyone, 9 Lycurgus, previous turf #'s are slow, but he woke up with 2 good ones on the dirt, then a big bounce.. what to make of him back on turf (and a big price)?

Gulfstream Park - SAT

Race 5 - MSW 44K

#11 Huffman - McPeek trainee by Came Home showed some speed in his last at CD before tiring and will use that experience to get it done versus some quality 1sters.

PK4 -

Leg 1 - Race 7 - G3 Mr Prospector

#5 Paradise Dancer - Didn't care for the slop in the G3 Kenny Noe across town and prior to that he earned a 104 and 106 BSF which should get it done here. Castro jumps off Weigelia to ride for the en fuego young Ziadie. (SCR)

#1 High Finance - Burned some money as the odds on favorite in last, but the West Point runner adds the hood for this affair and is training smartly.

#8 Kelly's Landing - 5 wide in BC Sprint cost him any chance and prior to that he defeated a nice field in the G3 Phoenix at KEE. He ran a huge race in March '06 at GP off a layoff.

Leg 2 - Race 8 - Ft. Lauderdale

#2 Ballast (Ire) - Motion turfer captured the G3 Trop Turf in his last. That might have been his breakthrough performance.

#10 Old Dodge (Brz) - Johnny V will be aboard for the stretchout and last 4 of last 5 he's gone over the century mark BSF.

#7 Dreadnaught - Hasn't won since Nov '05, but has kept stiff competition. He finds an easier spot with this bunch.

#6 Classic Campaign - Stumbled at the break in the Trop Turf and should be a nice value play right back.

#1 Gin and Sin - 7yr old gelding was 4th in last yr's running and should benefit with having Desormeaux in the irons. I predicted that Kent will have a strong meet at GP, especially on the lawn where he does his best work.

#9 Interpatation - Excels on the Gulfstream lawn with 2 wins and a 2nd from 3 starts.

Leg 3 - G3 Hals Hope

#9 Sir Greeley - Loves the distance and making important 3rd start off a layoff. Training well for the Giant Killer.

#5 Chatain - Wildcard in the race has an enormous amount of talent and could easily put it on display in his event.


Leg 4 - Race 10

#7 Cresson (GB) - Failed as the favorite versus similar at BEL in October, but is training steadily at Payson Park for strong turf trainer Clement.

#11 Everything to Gain - 8yr old gelding has earned over $387K and should have enough in the tank to get it done here.

PK4 - 1 8 with 1 2 6 7 9 10 with 5 9 with 7 11 = $48 for a buck play

Aqueduct - Race 8 - Count Fleet

#7 Summer Doldrums
#5 No Reply
#3 Sir Whimsey
#6 Believeinmenow

The Play - Tri Key and Tri P/W keying the #7 1st and 2nd with the 3 5 6.

Good Racing Luck

Let me jump in for Steve here. Are you predicting that TTT will move back 2 points in this start and then X in his following start? If so, and it happens, you should make a boatload of money. If he only moves back 2 points in this race, he wins easily, and if he were to come back in 20-30 days, he would, in theory, be a great throwout in that following start.

I think in TTT's instance you can essentially 'toss' that race at Keeneland as a poly experience, and that he wanted nothing to do with it.

But, given his sheet as it reads, he is not currently in the 0-2=x pattern

my head is swimmin after looking at these

Race 3

I like #1 Alpen Horn if I can get a price
#3 West To Durango trained by Helen Pitts
#5 Robbie Charm should win

Race 4

#7 Nar should win but he doesn't seem to run back all that often
going with value bets on #1 Blinded Quest & #6 Changing Weather

Box 1-6-7 in both the tri and exactas

Race 5

Bullets galore on #10 Speedball Howie but will the post hurt? I doubt it
#6 Touch A Prince has that Canadian angle going for him but.. Touch Gold doesn't impress me. Key The favorite #3 Laser

Box 3-6-10

Race 6

the 6 horse in the 6th race
Key 6 w/ 1-5-8-9-11 and worry about the 15?

Race 7

anyone like #2 Mach Ride?

boxing 2-5-8

Race 9

4-7-8-13

good luck
you'll need it

Scav, I just re-read your question.. I changed horses on you. Mostly is the horse that just 0-2-x'd.

No, Scav, what I'm referring to is that he has already 0-2-x'd... his last three races are 6 (top) 8, and then a troubled 15 (after being off 2 months). The way I see 0-2-x, is that now he is eligible to get back to the 0, which is his top of 6. When I see a horse with a top, and then a 2 pt backward move, I will predict an X, with varying results (I haven't actually kept track of this). The value of the next race after the x is potentially longer odds.

Gulf Early Scratches
 

Race_____horse_________
1 Scr.#3 Judith's Symphony
1 Scr.#5 Chiquihuite
1 Scr.#7 Last Shake
2 Scr.#1 Insolente
3 Scr.#8 Liger
5 Scr.#1 Jodi's Star
6 Scr.#13 Lights Out Angel
6 Scr.#14 Possible Mambo
6 Scr.#15 Royal Regan
7 Scr.#5 Paradise Dancer
8 Scr.#12 Prince Alphie
9 Scr.#10 Ecclesiastic
9 Scr.#11 Big Lover
10 Scr. #4 Omaggio
10 Scr. #14 Western Missle

Yeha I just saw that, it was the first post I read on the day and my eyes were just opening. Agree about the odds BUT I think in this case if you look at the thoro-pattern, Mostly is only 15% to at least pair that 6.75, he will probably improve that 15 from last time, but not enough to win, IMO. The beauty of handicapping.

FOR ANYONE that is new to THOROGRAPH, Mostly in race 1, #4, is a PERFECT example, IMO, of the 0-2=x theory...PERFECT

Mr Prospector
Kelly's Landing
Paradise Dancer
Weigelia
Slam Bammy
Mach Ride

Tough to distinguish between the top five which makes it a tough race to bet. Best strategy might be to play Kelly's Landing to be either on top or completely out of the tri. Paradise Dancer probably offers the most value in the win pool and Mach Ride could hit the board at a price.

Edit - Just saw Paradise Dancer scratched, now I really don't like this race. Will probably play Kelly's Landing and Weigelia in the top spot with Slam Bammy and Mach Ride underneath.

Ft Lauderdale
Old Dodge
Interpretation
Saint Stephen
Classic Campaign
Dreadnaught
Ballast

Another wide open one but I think this one offers more value than the Mr P. Really like Old Dodge at 4/1 and Interpretation at 12/1. Will play some exotics with those two in the top spot.

Hal's Hope
Sweetnorthernsaint
Sir Greeley
Rehoboth
Strong Pretender

Think this is Sweetnorthernsaint's race to lose. Sir Greeley has a shot if he runs huge third off the layoff at his optimal distance but might just not be good enough if SNS is on. Rehoboth or Strong Pretender figure to plod up for the tri.

I like Green Secret as well, but I think he might end being better on the turf. If he doesnt run well on the dirt, look out for him on the turf.

Race 3
7 Bedford Falls
2 Blotto
6 Ultimate

Race 4
5 Lifestyle
1 Bridled Quest
7 Nar - Won

Race 5
11 Huffman
8 Baltic
7 Texas Billy Boy
7 Vamanos

Pick 3
7
5, 1, 7
11, 8, 4, 7.....ticket was a brutal failure, with only Nar :(

Race 6
6 Bless You
10 Dyna's Gold Legend
3 Diamond Spirit
Longshot bet #9 Motion stretch-out, blinkers off 20-1ML

Race 7
2 Mach Ride
6 Slam Bammy
8 Kelly's Landing - Won
4 Hither Lane
2/6,8,4
6/2,8,4

Race 8
2 Ballast
6 Classic Campaign - Won
10 Old Dodge

Race 9
3 Sweetnorthernsaint
9 Sir Greeley
5 Chatain - Won
6 Strong Contender

Race 10
7 Cresson
8 Grand
11 Everything to Gain - Won

Pick 4
2,6,8
2,6,10
3
7,8,11

I like Strong Contender with Chatain and Istan in the exacta and tri boxes. Forgot my boy Indy Wind.

Looking at Sweetnorthernsaint, I don't consider the two comeback races and the races before the Gotham. He was obviously the class of those races and could run how he wanted and still win. For a decent look at how he might fit with these, I looked at his four races against graded competition:

Gotham-Was 2 back of a half in 47 3/5 and was 1.5 back of 6f in 1:12 1/5. He was fairly close to the pace but never had the lead. Steadily made ground late but didn't win.

Illinois Derby-Was 1 back of a half in 48 and 1/2 back of 6f in 1:13 before exploding to win the race. Had a lot in the tank (why not after such slow fractions?)

Kentucky Derby-Was 3.5 back after a half in 46 and about the same back of 6f in 1:10 4/5. He ended up tiring badly and losing a lot of ground late.

Preakness-Was 1 back of a half in 46 3/5 and 1/2 back of 6f in 1:10 1/5. He ended up finishing second that day but he was five lengths further back at the finish than he was after 6f meaning he again lost a lot of ground.

My feeling is that when he's allowed to run on very easy paces, he does well. Let him run a 48 or so for the half and still be within a couple of lengths and he's dangerous. But if they go faster, he's in trouble. He's either got to run faster to keep his position, which takes away from his late punch, or he's got to drop back further and try to run down a lot of horses. I don't see him with a chance here today. The half is likely to be in the 45 3/5 to 46 range and there are a few horses that will be contesting it.

r 3

expect 6, Ultimate., to run well at 20-1 with 5 mtp

6 win

tri 6/257
257/6/257
and 257/257/6

race 3 pk 3
7
467
2-3 10 11
for $3


haven't got a solid run for a from a 6-5 like that in a while
good luck all


-bt-

r 4
I'm playing Jabbok here at a good price. He's run against and beaten some decent horses. No way should he be 18-1.

Desormeaux with another beautiful ride on Beautiful Danielle. As I said before in the Gin and Sin comments, this guy will win at a high % on the GP Lawn.

grrrrr! I thought she at least held on for 2nd!!

The one thing I like about Desormeaux is that he doesn't ride scared, he rides to win, he takes risk and I am cool with that fact. I agree about the GP lawn and Kent, 100%

Recap to come later, not at home right now....Looks like we were dead on with West to Durango and Green Secret as far as capping goes...

dumb donkey ticket of the day goes to....me!

gulf p4
 

Played a $8 p4 at gulf 8 / 6,10 / 3569 / 8

alive to a single and what do I do ? DD savers on the 369 with 7, 11 in the last. of course i do nothing with the 5 chatian to save :(

Why didn't they have a pick 3 for the last 3 races at gulfstream ? I played a small ticket for the p4 and planned to spread out in the final p3, only there wasn't a p3 for r $8 - 10. :eek:

All my savers whent down the tubes, wish me luck :D

there's not much you can do. you singled and so just enjoy being right and hope and expect it continues for another 15 minutes. Two fingers of decent scotch a few minutes to post time is my only recommendation.

Nice job with Green Secret! West to Durango was second too. :)

Know how you feel, my friend. I have just really seriously gotten into playing Pick-3 and Pick-4 wagers and hit one of each last Sunday with some very nervous moments just like the one you're in now.

The best you can do is just be happy that you got there and didn't get knocked out earlier -- and enjoy watching the last race.

I know that's shitty advice, because I know exactly how your stomach feels right now if you're looking at a potential nice payoff.

Good luck!

Great job! :)

Gus (Bogey) alive to the 7-11 in the GP P4... Lessgo Gus...

tough one PG.

Was pulling for you.

Congrats Bogey!

BINGO!!!!!! Thanks everyone, I hope some were able to cash as well.

$1,546.30 Gus!! The DT Selections Page and ATRAB.. The hits just keep on coming...!! Great job... After taking care of the diaper bill last week, now you can start a college fund account for the new daughter...

:( Why did I single SNS?

Steve, LOL,I really appreciate it the compliments.

oh well
 

Where's my heart pills ? I'm going out for the Scotch now ! I'll be completely bald by next week !

Nice going Bogey, couldn't see the 11 winning at a flat mile from that post, as my final savers went on the 7 / 8,11 :( Gee g-ds testing me awfully early this year. :D

nice bogey.congrats...penna /corny hook up was key..

Thanks, Sightseek, PG, & Hooves.

Hooves, Corny has been the key in a couple of my PK4's the last few years. He's a very good rider, I've always been a fan since his early days at Calder. Now a have 1546.30 reasons to like him more. He did a great job with Chatain in the Hals Hope.

Race 3

#3 West to Durango (12/1ML): W2D looks like a horse that wanted nothing to do with the Poly. Has been working up a storm on Gulfstream's actual surface (not a PMM shipper). While Pitts' numbers off this type of layoff aren't particular strong, that might help the number on this horse. Those works, plus the all important jump from a 3yr to a 4yr spells PLAY ME.

Well, at 14/1, you got an unbelievable run at West to Durango. This being said, this horse will improve dramatically with racing as he was still extremely green coming off the turn AND he went a 44 half, 2 wide the whole time. Won't get 14/1 next out unless they get real creative and bump him in class, which is possible. $10.40 Place and a $97 exacta got ya healthy and a couple rounds for later on during the card

Race 5

This is one hell of a race, I can find about 7 horses that I could argue. That being said, the two horses that I will be talking about #2 Green Secret and #6 Touch a Prince.

#2 Green Secret(5/1ML) is a KMc trainee that brings a typical MSW win 1st out work pattern for a STRONG 1st out trainer. Darley homebred could make some noise on 'da Trail'

#6 Touch a Prince (10/1ML) is a hunch play for me. Last year, their was an article talking about how Bobby Frankel can not be named as the trainer for PMM trainee, some Florida rule about something. Whatever the fact, rest assure that Frankel is the actual trainer of those horse and last year a few horses sunk in under Lynch's name to run really well (I think On Board Again was one of them at like 15/1 in an MSW race). Besides all that, this horse has been working well and gets Kent D.

Another race like yesterday's tout that this race was a tail of two worlds for us. Touch of Prince didn't run a lick and isn't recommend to play next out, that is about as much as I can say about him. Green Secret though, is an auto playback in his next race, ESPECIALLY if he gets blinkers added. This is a horse with extremely talent in my opinion, but hung a little at the end to end up getting DH'ed. What was interesting is that it looked like Jara thought he had put the 3 away on the final turn with him looking under his arm but as stated, just hung a tiny bit. Will improve next out, ESPECIALLY with Blinkers. $6.20W/$6.80P, $30 Exacta, along with a $155 pick three continued with the healthness

Race 7

#3 Blazing Pursuit (20/1ML): Man do I think this horse is going to run HUGE tomorrow. Given the expected pace scenario and the great clock that Javy has in his melon, you are going to be looking at a horse that is gonna come a flying at the end and make things awful interesting. Besides that commentary, BP loves GP with 2 wins in 4 starts, and some great works since getting down to Palm Meadows. While Toner doesn't excel with layoffs, hard to ignore 15/1 or better on this horse.

Watching this race gave me a TON of information. Fact is that Blazing Purrsuit was up against it today as from what I can tell, an unfront bias was prevelent. That being said, at 27/1, he was a decent play given his numbers. Now for the good stuff, High Finance is an AUTO play next out, in what will probably be a rise in class. He just never got a hole to run through and when he did, he shot through it and finishing extremely well.

Nice hit Gus, would love to get on the board with one of those

gulf saturday
 

questions and comments from yesterday, maybe I can learn something. I played 2 horses coming off vet scratches, both ran poorly. I know there is no one answer, but how big a negative factor is this?
Race 1... Desormeaux somehow finds himself 3 wide throughout breaking from the rail? Tough to predict that.

Race 4... rhetorical question, how many lengths would Sinkwich have won by if Castellano had gotten him loose at any point during the stretch?

Race 5... did anyone else think Laser got his nose up in the last step? I know it was close, but that dead heat cost me.

Race 6... this was wide open, winner was one of many at thoro-9 level, couldn't play at 4-1 odds.. brings me to my next question: I played the 2 who was bet dead on the board (14-1)
Decarlo then rode her like a conditioning excercise. How to tell difference between solid overlay and non-effort/word is out, this ain't the week?

Race 7... High Finance missing the break helped Kelly's Landing immensley, kept him from being hung wide.. something I wasn't sharp enough to anticipate.

Race 8... this one I caught, great ride from Prado on Classic Campaign to find room, made up for the rotten rides I got earlier, although Mott seemed a little annoyed, saying he would have won easier if he had been in the clear.

Race 9.. I agree with Scav, SNS wasn't being pushed to win this one.. Chatain was all out before the top of the stretch, Dominguez wanted to finish well, but wasn't looking to push too hard.

Race 10...the top 3 finishers were all underlays to me, I thought Hatch at the price and breaking from the 2 hole might get a trip... WRONG! I know Lycurgus was 100-1, but Tommy Turner gave him interesting trip, speed horse broke last, rushed up with 7 wide middle move, then took a choke hold before final turn, he did beat 1 horse.

Overall, it was a good day, thanks to catching a few at Aqueduct (thanks Outofthebox) and Classic Campaign.