ALL w/ ALL ??
 

What are the chances with this wacky Derby that the exacta will pay 1K or more on a $400 investment?

Poor

Disagree. I think there's a good chance it does.

It's actually a $380 investment, and I think there's at least a 50% chance of you showing a profit.

I'm thinking over a grand as well.

I don't know if the risk is worth the reward. Or something.

I think most of the lower priced horses will run their races minus SC so its not for me.

What about all/all with the Oaks-Derby double, that's only a $280 investment and all you need is Blind Luck to get beat. That could be a huge payoff

$280 is for a buck. The DD would have to pay $560 to just break even... there are some throwouts

Im betting All/1,2/1,2 in the derby triple a nice little $36 investment!

i think this is a good bet this year...im throwing around the idea...i will toss stately victor to save $20 bucks....think he has 0% chance on hitting the board

For a 1$ bet. 20X19X1

760 for a 2....Pass

What chance do you give of Lookin At Lucky running either first or second?

you do know the average payout for the last 10 years is something like $1500 bucks right?

I think you can toss the turf horses at least.

[quote=tanner12oz;640873]you do know the average payout for the last 10 years is something like $1500 bucks right?[/QUOTE

Yes, the median would be a better example here. You expect a Giac/Clos Arg exacta here? (That was what 9 grand or something) Quite a skew.

It may not be worth it in the exacta but buying a free square in the exotics has been very very good to me over the years in this race and the Preakness.

To get the benefit though you have to spend some money. Last year

All/1,2,15,16/1,2,15,16 paid 20K for $1 which I was lucky enough to have twice. Buying a wheel in these pools can be very very rewarding if you have a little luck and some knowledge that fills.

Thats a good idea... though All/1,2 exacta box might have a bigger chance of scoring.

I never quite understood wheeling horses underneath only. Especially in a 20-horse field, how do you determine that certain horses are good enough to run second, but not win?

I agree.

Why not add an all in the 3 spot?

i agree with that. if you are just gonna wheel 2 horses with all.. do an exacta. You have to get real lucky to get the 1 & 2 to finish just second and third..

I could see an ALL/1,2,3,4/1,2,3,4 being worthwhile bet though. (just used numbers, not actual posts that I like)

For your $380 you get (a) some money back, no matter what and (b) the joy of being able to say "I HIT THE EXACTA IN THE DERBY!"

Seriously, IF someone were to try this, you'd want to play a little bit more than $380. You'd want a few bucks to cover the chalkier combos for more than a dollar. Strategically, if you are serious about using this bet as a cornerstone of your Derby betting, you need to spend about another (I'd guess) $50-$75 in "get me closer to even exactas" should the chalk roll in. I'd guess at about $450 total, your maximum downside could probably be limited to $200-$250, while your upside could be a few thousand. It is the relative likelihood of each of those outcomes, in your mind, that governs doing something like this.

You'd like to have an idea of the price on the projected chalkiest exacta, first, before undertaking such a thing. And, of course, you have to be somewhat solidly against the chalk hitting the top two slots.

I've seen crazier bets (cue for IC to talk about Matt's trfecta boxes....)

[quote=randallscott35;640880]yeah obviously that is an extreme example and i dont think there is a high probability of that happening...i also think there is a high probability of both lookin at lucky and sidneys candy running out... something in the 10/1-20/1 over a 10/1-20/1 is what im expecting (average win price is $29 bucks past 10 years)

2009: Mine That Bird/Pioneerof the Nile $2,074.80
2008: Big Brown/Eight Belles $141.60
2007: Street Sense/Hard Spun $101.80
2006: Barbaro/Bluegrass Cat $587.00
2005: Giacomo/Closing Argument $9,814.80
2004: Smarty Jones/Lion Heart $65.20
2003: Funny Cide/Empire Maker $97.00
2002: War Emblem/Proud Citizen $1,300.80
2001: Monarchos/Invisible Ink $1,229.00
2000: Fusaichi Pegasus/Aptitude $66.00

I wouldn't be too happy if I bet 760 bucks and got back 150...but that's me.

c'mon you get to say you hit the exacta in the derby....it only cost you $610...lol

$84 total

never beaten by another derby entrant (and has defeated another entrant) exacta box
Jackson Bend
Sidney's Candy
Conveyance
Line of David

finished itm in slop exacta box
Mission Impazible
Super Saver
Devil May Care
Backtalk

top beyer exacta box
Sidney's Candy 100
Devil May Care 100
Jackson Bend 100
Conveyance 99
Ice Box 99

itm at churchill exacta box
Backtalk
Super Saver
Mission Impazible

never lost on dirt exacta box
Lookin At Lucky
Line of David
American Lion

never ran on dirt exacta box
Make Music for Me
Sidney's Candy

never won on dirt (and has run on dirt) exacta box
Paddy O'Prado
Dean's Kitten
Stately Victor

horses that didn't qualify for any list above exacta box
Noble's Promise
Dublin
Discreetly Mine
Awesome Act
Homeboykris

:tro:

^^^ Thinly veiled redboard...
:D

Just kidding, I know Doc had this beast... he took me to the Preakness last year because of it.

I agree!

:tro: Genius work. Seriously- this is a cool approach, regardless of whether it works or not.

Don't forget the "Legends" box and first time trainers box!

and the TP box!

Awesome work.

reduces total cost by $2

One of my favorite ways to play the races is to key horses in third, and then sometimes in second. For longshots, it's easier to run third than it is to run second, and easier to run second that it is to run third. Often times, those underneath horses are closers who figure to pass tired pace horses. Denis of Cork is one example but unfortunately, I tired to get too cute and beat Big Brown.

Interesting cover all play... I looked at the number quickly and the average exacta from last 10 years is $1547. Once you throw out the $9800 2005 result the average payout is $628 or roughly 82% of your $2 exacta box to cover 20x19 ($760). Historically you can expect to lose ~ 18% on the bet which is about inline with exotic takeouts.

I guess the strategy is you're hoping for a 50-1 to hit the top 2. If so, you might as well just take the 4 horses that are ML 50-1+ and box each one individually with All others. Each key bx would be $76 so in total you would be out $304. This play would of hit the exacta in both 2005 and 2009. You should expect to either lose all $300 or win $2k+.

[quote=tanner12oz;640901]

Outstanding :tro: :D

"Average payout"--I don't know that the mean is the figure you want. I think the median would be more illustrative. It is $364.30.

I think you have to actively dislike two or three of the top picks to make this work at all. And until you know the projected "chalk" exactas, you are kind of in the dark. All of the "low" exactas in the past decade involved at least one chalk horse.

tector,

agreed... think the point I was trying to make was without the '05 or '09 results which had 50-1 bomber the payout it much much less... those results skew the average.

if you believe the two favs finish outside the top 2 the all w/all should be profitable.

I just don't have the bankroll to try it. :eek: