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-   -   WKND BSF's: Quality Road 113; 'Mousse 103 (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=28165)

Kasept 03-02-2009 07:02 AM

WKND BSF's: Quality Road 113; 'Mousse 103
 
Huge figure for Quality Road in the FOY and for Jojo too...


Fountain (GP): QUALITY ROAD 113; Theregoesjojo 105
Davona Dale (GP): JUSTWHISTLEDIXIE 97
Sham (SA): THE PAMPELMOUSSE 103; Take the Points 93
Baldwin (SA): BATTLE OF HASTINGS
Canadian Turf (GP): TWILIGHT METEOR 94

Stymie (AQU): Barrier Reef 99
Crystal Waters (SA): Medzendeekron 99
Borderland Derby (SUN): Scorewithcater/Mine That Bird 84
Battaglia (TP): Proceed Bee 73
Mountain Valley (OP): Citizen/Flying Private 85
Miracle Wood (LRL): Rock on Justin 84
King Glorious (GG): Charlie's Moment 87


MSW (GP): Affirmatif 94

The Indomitable DrugS 03-02-2009 07:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept
Huge figure for Quality Road in the FOY and for Jojo too...

Maybe could have been a few points higher as well.

You have to have US Treasury winning the 2nd race with just a 78 to get QR at 113.

Kasept 03-02-2009 07:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
Maybe could have been a few points higher as well.

You have to have US Treasury winning the 2nd race with just a 78 to get QR at 113.

Funny you mentioned that Doug because US Treasury (One of Mrs. Weber's) caught my eye in the Winner's Book when accruing the figs and on the Stakes Review page:

QR more than 3 full seconds faster than Treasury, (est. 16L or so?), though more than 3.5 hours later on the card.

FOUNTAIN'S FRACTIONS: 23.83 - 45.55 - 1:09.40 - 1:35.01
Race 2 (MdnSplWt, 4+, 1m) 23.74 - 46.22 - 1:11.27 - 1:38.36

justindew 03-02-2009 08:27 AM

I'd really like to hear what people think about Take the Points' 7-point regression on the Beyer scale. I felt like he ran a strong race. And I guess he did. Just expected to see him higher than 93.

Also, there were several wire-to-wire winners at SA yesterday, including more than one at two turns. Although just about all of the winners were among the favorites.

The Indomitable DrugS 03-02-2009 08:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept
QR more than 3 full seconds faster than Treasury, (est. 16L or so?), though more than 3.5 hours later on the card.

3.35 seconds at that distance would equal about 19.5 lengths.

The Indomitable DrugS 03-02-2009 08:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by justindew
I'd really like to hear what people think about Take the Points' 7-point regression on the Beyer scale.

A 7 point regression is nothing when you're talking about going from like a 100 in a one-turn dirt mile to a 93 in a 9f synthetic route. Especially for a 3yo.

Actually, it might have been a somewhat improved race. He got that big dirt figure while up on a soft pace with an easy trip.

Kasept 03-02-2009 08:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
3.35 seconds at that distance would equal about 19.5 lengths.

!!!

mes5107 03-02-2009 08:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
3.35 seconds at that distance would equal about 19.5 lengths.


How long is a "length"? I usually use 10 feet, but I have never heard a definitive answer. If it is 10 feet, a horse coming home the final 1/8th in 13 seconds is covering a shade over 50 feet per second, or 5 lengths per second. If a length is indeed 10 feet then this would mean 3.35 seconds is 16 3/4 lengths.

Kasept 03-02-2009 09:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mes5107
How long is a "length"? I usually use 10 feet, but I have never heard a definitive answer. If it is 10 feet, a horse coming home the final 1/8th in 13 seconds is covering a shade over 50 feet per second, or 5 lengths per second. If a length is indeed 10 feet then this would mean 3.35 seconds is 16 3/4 lengths.

Some use the number you are thinking and many figure guys go to 6 lengths/second as Doug, and I believe CJ and Andy do.. I started years ago with 5 lengths/second and generally use that for quick calculations because of the relative mental ease of the number(s) when using it.

The Indomitable DrugS 03-02-2009 09:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mes5107
How long is a "length"? I usually use 10 feet, but I have never heard a definitive answer.

Studies show a horse length usually measures about 8.5 to 9 feet.

The old rule of thumb is that a length equals 1/5th of a second .... but to steal a line from Steve Davidowitz...."mathmatically speaking, a length should equal 1/5th of a second only when a horse travels a furlong in 15 seconds. The only horses who go that slow charge 10 cents a ride."

ateamstupid 03-02-2009 09:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept
Some use the number you are thinking and many figure guys go to 6 lengths/second as Doug, and I believe CJ and Andy do.. I started years ago with 5 lengths/second and generally use that for quick calculations because of the relative mental ease of the number(s) when using it.

1/5th of a second is for trotters. Resident math nerd philcski sent me a great PM a little while ago about figuring this kind of thing out. It varies per distance and class level obviously, but Phil says that the average number to use is about 6.11 lengths/second.

blackthroatedwind 03-02-2009 09:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept
Some use the number you are thinking and many figure guys go to 6 lengths/second as Doug, and I believe CJ and Andy do.. I started years ago with 5 lengths/second and generally use that for quick calculations because of the relative mental ease of the number(s) when using it.



Few would admit this.

mes5107 03-02-2009 09:24 AM

Ok, using the 8.5 feet for a length yields approx 19.5 lengths. Does the Beyer figure system still use the charts which assign lengths and points behind according to distance? I've seen 9 furlong dirt races come home with a 14 second final quarter, and I've seen them come home in 12 seconds. Using just a chart based on distance does not give an accurate representation of lengths behind.

King Glorious 03-02-2009 09:36 AM

I think that most people use .16 seconds per length now. At that rate. 3.35 seconds would equal 21 lengths.

Kasept 03-02-2009 10:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Few would admit this.

LOL.. Strictly a matter of simplicity I guess from the way I started out doing it. I then make the adjustment after the simpler initial calculation. Just a mental process...

mes5107 03-02-2009 11:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Glorious
I think that most people use .16 seconds per length now. At that rate. 3.35 seconds would equal 21 lengths.

.16 sec/length translates roughly to a 12 2/5 second final 1/8 of a mile. If all races finished at that speed, that would work just fine. However, a slower horse is going to take a longer amount of time to cover a length than a faster one and I think determining the distance of one horse behind another when only given the time interval is very dependent upon the final speeds of both horses in question.

Thunder Gulch 03-02-2009 11:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
A 7 point regression is nothing when you're talking about going from like a 100 in a one-turn dirt mile to a 93 in a 9f synthetic route. Especially for a 3yo.

Actually, it might have been a somewhat improved race. He got that big dirt figure while up on a soft pace with an easy trip.

Agree. The surface change is tough to account for nowadays.

the_fat_man 03-02-2009 12:06 PM

This kind of points to what the focus of horseplayers demanding change in the industry should be: MORE ACCURATE TIMING (and thus data) for EVERY HORSE.

There's no excuse for not having a system like Trakus in place for EVERY TRACK.

In the meantime, the track heads must be thrilled that the focus of horseplayers is on cheaters.

Danzig 03-02-2009 12:08 PM

i had also always been told fifths per length-never thought about what that meant for a furlong time.
filing away 1/6th for future reference.

Bobby Fischer 03-02-2009 12:29 PM

a length = 8ft

mes5107 03-02-2009 12:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer
a length = 8ft


Ok, now I've heard 8, 8.5, 9, and 10 feet are a length. What do chartwriters use as the standard?

Bobby Fischer 03-02-2009 12:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mes5107
Ok, now I've heard 8, 8.5, 9, and 10 feet are a length. What do chartwriters use as the standard?

8'
Actually it depends. If they need a horse thats like a length or a 1/2 length or head/neck... it's just by eye. If they are doing a horse thats way off the pace some of them use the rail which is 8feet.

Formula Call1 to Call2
(((Call2distance-Call1Distance)*660feet)+LengthsBehindCall1*8-LengthsBehindCall2*8)) / (Call2time-Call1time)


Formula Call to finish
((Finishdistance-Call1Distance)*660feet+LengthsBehindCall1*8)/((Finaltime-Call1time)+0.18seconds*BeatenLenghtsFinish)

^^ you get velocity in feet per second
if you want it time in Seconds then you divide feet/velocity (#Furlongs*660)/VelocityAnswer

8feet Fontan safety rail
.18seconds photo finish tech.

The Indomitable DrugS 03-02-2009 12:48 PM

I think the studies that showed it between 8.5 to 9 feet were done by the New Bolton Center, but they are old. Perhaps race horses are getting shorter.

mes5107 03-02-2009 01:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer
.18seconds photo finish tech.

So if a horse finished 10 lengths behind the winner on the chart, he was actually 1.8 seconds behind? I think I get all screwed up because only the winner's time is reported in thoroughbred races, where harness and greyhounds report times for all finishers. In greyhound racing a length is always reported as .07 seconds, so it's not so much a measure of distance as it is time. If thoroughbred racing uses the universal reported of lengths behind winner as .18 sec/length, then that would be a good piece of information for me to know.

Sorry for totally derailing this thread.

Bobby Fischer 03-02-2009 01:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mes5107
If thoroughbred racing uses the universal reported of lengths behind winner as .18 sec/length, then that would be a good piece of information for me to know.

that is what i was told. They don't use visual lengths at the finish, only at the calls. 0.18 is what at least some of the companies use. Yea, it would be nice to just get have trakus in the saddle and have a time and distance for every furlong.

pick4 03-02-2009 04:29 PM

Without something like Trakus it's all a guessing game as far as the distance between horses. I'd like to see Trakus implemented at all tracks and hopefully one day that will be the case.

Kasept 03-03-2009 10:30 AM

*Fountain of Youth (GP): Quality Road (J. Jerkens/J. Velazquez) - 113

*Sabin (GP): One Caroline (G. Arnold II/E. Prado) - 103
*Sham (SA): The Pamplemousse (J. Canani/A. Solis) - 103
*Hollie Hughes (Aqu): Mor Chances (R. Dutrow Jr./R. Migliore) - 102
*The Very One (GP): Criticism - GB (T. Albertrani/E. Prado) - 101
*Mac Diarmida (GP): Presious Passion (E. Trujillo/M. Hartmann) - 101
*Stymie (Aqu): Barrier Reef (T. Albertrani/R. Dominguez) - 100
*San Luis Obsipo (SA): Spring House (J. Canani/A. Solis) - 100

*San Carlos (SA): Georgie Boy (K. Walsh/G. Gomez) - 99
*Crystal Water (SA): Medzendeekron (B. Abrams/G. Gomez) - 99
*Canadian Turf (GP): Twilight Meteor (T. Pletcher/J. Velazquez) - 98
*Davona Dale (GP): Justwhistledixie (K. McLaughlin/A. Garcia) - 97
*Gulf Coast Classic (DeD): Stonehouse (J. Broussard/C. Bourque) - 97
*Broadway (Aqu): Lights Off Annie (B. Levine/R. Maragh) - 95
*Spring Fever (OP): Palanka City (T. Gestes/E. Emigh) - 92
*Tampa Bay (Tam): Victory Alleged (D. Manning/C. Marquez Jr.) - 92
*Feel the Beat (Aqu): Awesome Ashley (T. Pletcher/A. Napravnik) - 91
*Bayou (FG): Love to Tell (M. Burgess/J. Shepherd) - 91
*Baldwin (SA): Battle of Hastings - GB (J. Mullins/T. Baze) - 90

*Rare Treat (Aqu): Weathered (K. Grusmark/M. Luzzi) - 89
*Goddess (DeD): Alina (S. Asmussen/G. Melancon) - 88
*Busher (Aqu): What a Pear (J. Parker/C. Hill) - 88
*King Glorious (GG): Charlie's Moment (W. Solis/D. Sorenson) - 87
*Wayward Lass (Tam): Striking Tomisue (N. Zito/J. Bridgmohan) - 87
*Muir Beach (TuP): Born With Eagles (M. Pearson/G. Corbett) - 85
*Arizona Oaks (TuP): Carlsbad (K. Lewis/D. Vergara) - 85
*Mountain Valley (OP): Citizen (B. Flint/J. Court) - 85
*New Mexico State University (Sun): Daddy O. (J. Gonzalez Jr./A. Medellin) - 85
*Mardi Gras (FG): Selva (D. Carroll/R. Albarado) _ 85
*Valentine Dancer (SA): Bel Air Sizzle/Onebadkitty (B. Abrams/G. Gomez) (B. Koriner/A. Gryder) - 84 (DEAD-HEAT)
*Maryland Racing Media (Lrl): Hello Poochie Pooh (J. Alecci/E. Rodriguez) - 84
*Miracle Wood (Lrl): Rock On Justin (G. Capuano/T. Maragh) - 84
*Borderland Derby (Sun): Scorewithcater (D. O'Neill/M. Baze) - 84
*Grasmick (Fon): Tonight Rainbow (B. Caster/C. Kimes) - 81
*Sarah Lane's Oates (FG): Wanna Cuddle (A. Ishaq/C. Lanerie) - 80

*Rillito Park Budweiser Mile (Ril): Northern Blood (G. Barrow/T. Gard) - 77
*Island Fashion (Sun): Oro Blanco (H. Dominguez/A. Medellin) - 77
*Gentilly (FG): Milwaukee Miracle (B. Young/D. Meche) - 76
*Turf Paradise Derby (TuP): Mayor Marv (B. Baffert/D. Flores) - 75
*Valdale (TP): Walloon (K. Ball/H. Rosario Jr.) - 74
*John Battaglia Memorial (TP): Proceed Bee (T. Gestes/R. Prescott) - 73
*Zip Pocket (TuP): Radford (K. Lewis/D. Vergara) - 70


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