To pedigreeann
 

Pedigreeann,

I was told you are the one about this issue! Can you help me answer the question I put on this topic?

http://derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2183

Thank you!

Miss Ann,

Your attention is needed on the Best Broodmares thread.

You've got some 'splaining to do, young lady.

FMC,

The advice you were given on the other thread was quite good.

Both stallions were quality race horses from good families ... but both have been around for a while as stallions ... and their records aren't particularly distinguished.

Both broodmares haven't done much so far ... and Reforce is a little on the old side. Most broodmares produce their best runners with their first or second foal ... although there are some dramatic exceptions.

You were advised that the colt has slightly better bloodlines ... and I agree. He is linebred to Nasrullah ... which may not mean much these days ... but it does offer some hope.

The best thing to do is speak to someone who is a conformation expert ... have the expert look at the yearlings as individuals ... and go by what he/she says. The bloodlines alone aren't anything special.

Okay, I've been out of town helping my 86yo mom for a week and am now getting caught up with things. Can't find every thread posted in the meantime.

Blush Rambler was a good runner in Europe (SW, G1-placed), well-bred, and has been a top sire in Brasil (a Derby winner plus other SWs). His damsireTumble Lark made a huge impact in Brasil, with champions like Dark Brown and Big Lark. He was a US-bred, too, by turf champ T. V. Lark. The sires on down the damline - Henri le Balafre and Locris and Sunny Boy - were top runners in France and influential sires in Brasil. And of course the family traces to Emocion, winner of both of the Brasilian Oaks races (Gavea and Cidade Jardim), a full sister to champion Emerson (classic sire in France), and dam of Embuche, one of the greatest mares in Brazilian racing history; another daughter of Emocion went to Argentina and produced at G1 winner and the second dam of current star Latency. The colt's third dam Emigrette was a full sister to Emerald Hill, another dual Oaks winner who is on the same list with Embuche.

The most iintriguing thing about the colt's pedigree (to the pedigree geek) is the inbreeding to the mare Tumbling, dam of Tumble Lark and third dam of Alleged, damsire of Blush Rambler. Reinforces the distance/turfiness of the pedigree. Filly later.

told you she was the one to talk to.
hope you've been well Ann
Still have Red Down South in Stable mail lol

Ann you are just simply awesome. By far, the best poster on this site IMO.

Stallion statistics from Brasil tend to be segregated by track; when I pulled up this year's statistics from Sao Paolo (Cidade Jardim), at the top of the sire's list was Romarin and at the the top of the sires of broodmares list was Minstrel Glory. Oddly enough, neither is in the top twenty at Rio (Gavea). Still, it is an indication of quality. You may not recall Romarin as a top turf miler (8f-9f) in this country in the mid-1990s; won the Early TImes Classic on Derby Day, etc. But he was also second in the Derby Paulista at 12f back home.

Minstrel Glory was not that good a runner, probably had soundness problems since he made only 11 starts in 3 years of racing. Had two wins and a 2nd in the Westchester H (G3) at Aqueduct. He sired some decent runners but seems to be better as a sire of dams. I don't have as much data about Uruguayan bloodlines as I do Brasilian ones; this female side is a lot Uruguayan and it doesn't tie in to any of the classic winners I have catalogued. The sire of the second dam Heathen stood in Uruguay and got the top horse Hampstead before being exported to Brasil. The sire of the second dam Snow Puppet was a full brother to a local Triple Crown winner at La Plata in Argentina named Snow Gambler - the Snow Cat over Claro cross was a really potent one. The next dam was by Granado, who is unfamiliar to me, but his sire Uranio I know as an excellent classic sire, as was Ruler, the sire of the next dam.

All things considered, I would say that this would be more of a miler pedigree. I would agree that this pedigree is a bit 'lighter' in quality, espeically on the female side, than the colt's.

Just obsessive-compulsive about TB pedigrees and organizing my data so that I can access it. And a fly-paper memory doesn't hurt (not as good as photographic, but if I see something a few times it sticks.)

What a resource this place is for a person with a pedigree question! Man those are great responses people.

Simply awesome your answer Pedigree Ann!

Thank a lot!! It will be very helpful!!

Thank you Bold Brooklynite, too!!

Tell you what - I'll tell you about pedigrees if you will help me improve my handicapping. I can pick up the rare gem (Siphon City) but can't do it consistently, like some of you.

Could you imagine going to the track with Ann. Shoot, you would have every angle possible. That would be too much fun.

No offense, all of that pedigree information is great and you obviously have to be intelligent to have that much info, but I don't really see how that would help you, given possible pace scenarios, how fast a horse may actually be or multiple other factors.

Again, no slam on Ann, but what good would it do you to know that so and so is a great great grandson of so and so. I guess you could say that based on breeding they may only go run so far or excell at longer distances, but until they actually do it, you do not really know what they will do...

True, but in the Belmont the 4 best pedigrees, imo prior to the race, finished in the top 4 spots.

Sometimes a pedigree can translate into a handicapping factor. But I would not place it foremost on the list. I'd say form cycle and documented speed are primary, in general.

I think that pedigrees tell the probability a horse can perform on a certain distance or surface compared to other horses....so imo its extremely useful for both auctions or handicapping on unraced and lightly raced 2yo/3yo colts and fillies starting their careers

They are not unimportant, but if I had to decide if I would excel at knowing pedigree or have the ability to watch a horse and see how they move, like what rupert/richi can do, I think I would go with seeing how they move. I would bet I that if I had a copy of the DRF in front of me now, there's plenty of "well-bred" horses that are just plain slow.

I think Ann nailed it for you. You have to know what you want.

Mares tend to have more residual value than colts in that they can usually be bred after a racing career, or even unraced.

Often colts are gelded and once their career is over they become an expense. Few succeed at stud if they remain whole.

Oh pedigree plays an important role in handicapping for me in certain races. Comes in handy the most when you are capping 1st time starters. Also comes into play when handicapping off tracks. That is why you will see the off spring of Unbridled get hammered when the dirt track is off. Now, just a normal 1 mile dirt race worth $15k then it doesnt help. But combine the handicapping side and the pedigree side could form a very powerful combination.

You're most welcome.

(See, Pedigree Ann .. that's how to be "gracious" ... why not give it a try on the "Broodmare" thread?)

Absolutely right ... lots of "inbred 4x5" mumbo-jumbo ... but not a scintilla of practical advice.

My advice ... and the advice of others on another thread ... was much, much more useful.

enjoy reading P annes posts. i enjoy pedigree research, but haven't got the time that ann evidently has put into her hobby (for lack of a better word). it isn't an answer in itself for handicapping, but any knowledge is a good thing. knowing a horses pedigree could be helpful--esp for a 2 yo (does his pedigree say precocity?) or a first timer on turf, or on dirt for that matter. not the only tool to have, but still useful.

What you say is correct ... but it doesn't contradict the validity of what PointG said.

Once a horse establishes his form ... pedigree doesn't mean squat as far as handicapping goes.

Pedigree knowledge is helpful for first-time starters, first-time route, first-time turf, and first-time slop ... but not much more ... when it comes to picking the winner of a race.

Ann - My apologies
 

Ann:

My sincere apologies for calling a broodmare a sire instead of a producer....
Definitely my mistake, probably a combination of getting older and trying to multi-task at work...

Hope you did not rip too many hairs out and there is still some left.

Anyway, i stand corrected.

Pedigrees are of course very important as an additional source of information to other factors in handicapping.

As far as racing, we have decided to go the route of racing initially only fillies.
As previoulsy stated, at least at the end of their career or if they do not get to the track we can breed them and sell of the colts and retain the fillies to race and add to our broodmare stable..... Only NY Breds given the strength of their program..

Paul

Studying and understanding pedigrees is an enjoyable hobby ... and a worthwhile supplement to conformation analysis when evaluating unraced auction horses.

I grew up reading the brilliant and intricately-complex "Bloodlines" column of Leon Rasmussen in the Daily Racing Form ... and the more erudite and scholarly works of Abram Hewitt in The Blood-Horse.

Lots of fun learning about "three-quarter brothers" and "line breeding" and "tail male descent" ... but not to be taken too seriously.

I agree with you in general, but I think pedigree can also be a useful tool for the TC races, especially the Belmont. It is usually my favorite race to handicap each year because of the insanely long (by today's standards) distance of 12f.
I just know a little about pedigree analysis, but I still love to use what I do know to cap the Belmont and it usually helps (except for this year....freakin' Steppenwolfer). I imagine that people like BB and Ann - who know a lot about pedigree analysis - love handicapping the Belmont.

The Jockey Club Gold Cup was more fun ... when it was 16f.

I was thinking, maybe it's a little bit too simplistic to decide what a 1st time starter will do based on pedigree, sure there's precocious sires, that's true, but I would say the single most important factor when handicapping 1st time starters is the Trainer. Even if a horse is considered to be by a "precocious sire", it doesn't matter, unless the trainer is capable or has it in their "training style" to have them ready. I guess you could use Mandella and Baffert as two opposite ends of the spectrum in this regard. Also, if a horse is really talented and considered to be at the top of his age group, he should have the "talent" to beat some of the lesser of his age group that might show up in a msw even though it may be a shorter distance and he is bred to run longer, so pedigree really wouldn't help you in that situation.

I would say genetics, not family tree(ripped off of Pgardn) would have more of a say so if a horse can handle the slop or turf in a first time starter.

like i said, it's one tool. to go purely on precocity while ignoring a trainers lack of luck with a 2 yo would be folly. also, just because a horse is by a 'turf' sire doesn't mean he'll like it....just like a horse with the fastest time at that distance might not be the winner. no one thing will guarantee you pick the winner. all things can/should be considered...

i remember, was it 2001, when Mayakovsky made his first start as a 2 yr old at Saratoga at 5.5 F. He was the HEAVY fav...he had very fast work outs, Biancone as trainer, and he shipped in from Cali...

so he won in a track record time ahead of Thunderello.