Two of three are going to the Belmont
 

www.drf.com said Curlin and Hard Spun are going to run in the last of Triple Crown Race. I thought Hard Spun would sit it out but Jones say's he's in I guess.

Hard spun does not need to be stretched out any farther, if anything a reduction in distance would do wonders for this horse. He could be a very very very good miler.

That's nonsense. He's by freaking Danzig. Just because a horse tired after setting the pace in the Derby, then tired after a premature move in the Preakness, that doesn't mean he can't get 12 furlongs. I think it's a good move by Jones, he just has to get him to relax a little.

I agree with you that he can get 12F but I think it has more to do with his Dam's side than his daddy. . .

bingo, with the right training I don't see why he couldn't be a real factor at 12F. He may not win it because he may not be as fast as a Curlin, but I wouldn't say he has no shot and I wouldn't expect what I think many people expect, and that is that Hard Spun would collapse badly. If he runs relaxed he can go a long way.

Any jockey but Pino. Hell, Kevin Krigger looked like a better choice than Pino with his rides at Suffolk today.

How about Sally Mitchellhill? She's tearing it up at Calder.

I think ateam hit the nail on the head. I think Hard Spun can definitely be a factor, especially considering who we think will be heading to Belmont.

The pace is usually slower in the belmont as well so that would benefit Hard Spun. I think the rest that are planning to go are either raters or closers. The only one I don't know is the french horse mentioned on the bloodhorse website.

Cristobal is the french horse. Anyone know anything about him?

Hard Spun could steal the race unless they replace pino with franklin.:)

I think Hard Spun may very well take it, and that Curlin will be way overbet. In other words, the obvious observations...

ALostTexan

I do feel that for the most part Hard Spun will do his best work in the 8.5f-9f range. While he certainly has a dam-side pedigree that indicates 10f or longer, he does not seem able to relax very well down the backside.
What the horse does do well is get up to full speed quickly, and then maintain that speed for far longer than most horses with his early acceleration.
I can see why some may like his chances here, because he has that dam-side pedigree, and there shouldn't be a lot of competition on the front end, and who knows, the way he faded at Pimlico may mean he is the right price in this race.
On the whole though, I don't like his chances, because even though the race may set up for him to potentially get the half in :48 & change, I highly doubt he will actually do that unless Mario decides to do his best Jose Santos impression and strangle the horse back. I think he'll burn himself out.....but I am glad they are taking a shot with him here. We really don't need another Belmont like last year's edition.

I think he can get the distance, but he does not look comfy in the stretch. Past 2 races he looks tight like he is startled or something


Biggest thing to consider is WildCrazyGuy

We have already heard he loves the distance and if the speed dies
BIG HIT at NICE PRICE

Jim, I agree that it would be foolish to say that he will "collapse badly" but when you say "if he runs relaxed"......that seems like a very big "if" to me.
That is the part I don't think he can do.

With the slower pace of the Belmont, I definitely think Hard Spun has a good shot at winning it. He would have had a good shot at the Preakness if Pino had kept him off the pace instead of making a move with 5 1/2 furlongs to go. He's a game horse and with a better jockey he'll have a much better chance at winning it.

could it be d -money

Belmont has always been more of a stalkers race than a closer's race. I wouldn't think wildandcrazyguy would have much of a shot here.

me either, i give him no shot.

I'm sick of hearing this is a stalkers race and not a closers.



I'm sick of hearing mid stalkers and closing sprinters....I'm sick of can't get 10 or 12 panels or whatever the fucl< have you.


I'm sick of tighter turns and sweeping turns and dirt,turf and Hollyrock.

I'm sick of " Franchmens houses" and ducked in and the entire frigging mess.





Can't someone talk about stinking motorcycles or fine foot wear or anything else for just a day or two?????







Now you all have a stinking question to ask yourselves.






But ah don't think ya are.

While I agree with you about IWCG's chances here, I don't think the Belmont really favors one particular style over another that much. Look no further than the last two Belmonts and you will find closers winning. Afleet Alex and Jazil were way back there down the backstretch.
The mistake most people make in this race I think (and the one I MIGHT be making with Hard Spun) is thinking that front-runners have no shot. That is not the case. If a front-runner can relax, he can be a factor.
ANY running style can win this race. It is just about who has the lungs for it.

I would call Jazil, Afleet Alex, Sarava, Lemon Drop Kid, Victory Gallop, all closers.

That's a pretty good percentage the last 10 years. (Afleet Alex WAS a closer.)

That being said, I don't think wildandcrazy has much of a shot.

Easy there, big fella. If we didn't know better, we'd think you got the dosages mixed up. It's two from the little bottle; one from the big. As an aside, I'm wearing neither shoes nor socks at the moment, if that's of any help to you.

Beat it Grossmaster.

Your lameness is exceeded only by your propensity to be a dumb azz.

lol. you should probably not stray from the sandbox. you get too cranky without your pudding pops.

Good.


You can laugh at yourself.




Now you know how much fun everyone else has been having.

I havnt broken down the llast two races and analyzed the fractions and speed of each colt at various stages of the race. To me there is one thing visualy apparant. HS has the longest sustained drive of all the runners Ive seen.He dosnt come back to the field he just continues on. Acouple of very nice colts have caught hin in his last two, but it wasnt because he fell apart. With this kind of sustained run it could lead to a win even with the closers in here. because the closers have the added distance to compromise there late turn of speed and the leader has farther to stretch his lead before the closers make there run.Im not making HS my pick but if he goes I will give mot eliminate him because he runs up close.

Afleet Alex was a closer? Really? Did he close in the Juvenile, the Hopeful, the Sanford? Did he close in the Derby, even the Belmont?

I'm desperately trying to find a race where Afleet Alex wasn't at or near the lead at the top of the stretch in a stakes race.

who beat smarty jones? name slips me for whatever reason. considered a deep closer, wasn't he?

victory gallop made up 4 lengths from the 1/8th pole.

And what are you going to name him?


A top of the stretch closer?

A mild stalker?

A slow speedster?

Cheap need the lead?

nondeepclosingshamanwhoreallyisn'tsure?

Yes, Yes, Yes, and Yes.

In the Sanford he was 6th after the first call, and in the Hopeful, he was in 5th after the first call. In the Derby he was 12th after a half mile, and in the Belmont he was 8th after 3/4 of a mile.

birdstone

I don't dispute that Victory Gallop was a closer. I definitely dispute that characterization of Afleet Alex. Sanford, stalked, Hopeful, stalked, BC Juvenile, stalked, Arkansas Derby, beautiful stalking trip, even the Derby he was within shouting range of the pace.

He certainly wasn't a closer like Street Sense or Jazil are closers.

philcski - I respect your knowledge. Immensely, but I just watched all of those races and I don't care what the charts might say, my man was within a few lengths of the lead in the Juvenile, Sanford, Hopeful, Arkansas Derby, virutally throughout. That's not what I would call a pure closer.

??? Is this necessary?

I'd call him versatile. He was able to win from a lot of different positions and a lot of different distances. Definitely a special horse.

Afleet Alex was a closer. You can get arrested for stalking. Alex was too kind to do that.

Hmm.

Slot,
Perhaps it is a matter of semantics but I would call Afleet Alex a closer.
I would draw a distinction between those I would call a deep closer (which would not be AA) and just a closer.
I also think that by the Belmont he was much more of a closer than he was in his 2yo campaign.
If you look at his last two races, I think JRose figured out after the Derby that the colt did his best running if he was allowed to lope along near the back of the pack and then make one big run near the end of the race. To me.....that is a closer, but again this is really just semantics.
I think the more important point is that a horse does not have to be anywhere near the lead to win the Belmont.