Beyer Fig from Saturday
 

Curlin - 103

Blue Grass - 93

Ouch :eek: ..."poly" crap???

I'm very surprised they didn't treat the Blue Grass like a turf race and give it a higher figure.

It really was run like a turf race, and that is the way to look at it.

I really don't think that the poly track is to blame for the figure as there have been some good figures run on it, by these horses.

I say its more to do with the riders and how they decided to allow the pace to unfold. I think its a riders reaction to how the poly is playing and not wanting to compromise their horses chances.

I agree. There was no pace at all

Absolutely and for that reason any number for this race is somewhat fabricated. Beyer felt that this number worked well, as it fell in line for four of the participants, and he said even though it is a difficult number he thinks he may have actually gotten it right.

what else is he gonna say, he thinks he got it wrong? 24 hours after the race and its wrong??

What does this mean?

Time Squared got an 88 Beyer for beating one horse....

The figure for the Blue Grass is pointless anyway....but, Stream Cat, who's career top Beyer was an 88 ran 13 points faster earlier on in the card, and the filly of Mott's that won from mid-pack also ran 13 points faster.

I'm positive he cut the race loose....if he doesn't...it's like an 82

Therein lies part of the problem for making figs for turf races ( and make no mistake....this Blue Grass was essentially a turf race from a timing/figure making standpoint ). Because of the slow pace, all the participants are essentially dragged into the race, and the horses that didn't run at all get numbers they can't possibly reproduce in a competitive situation.

Take a look at some of the fields behind Honey Ryder in a Delaware turf race from a year or so ago. There was a John Pregman horse that can barely run a competitive 80 figure who received a number in the low to mid 90s simply because of the slow pace and nature of the race dynamics. This is what Beyer was referring to in our show where he said he knew what I would say about Jader. I constantly have this argument with him.

i think beyer is right on this ...he needs to give an honest account of all paramiters....and this fig is about right for what went on..

Do you know what Storm In May got in the Arkansas Derby? or what Takedown's BSF was in the Northern Spur. Just want something to compare Curlin's 103 BSF to. Also, was Street Sense's BSF also a 93? Zanjero's?

Storm in May would be an 86 based on the Beyer beaten lengths chart.

Looks like those hoping for a fair price on Street Sense will get their wish. Can't see him going off at lower than 6/1 with a 93 BSF staring bettors right in the face.

I think very little. Maybe half a point. The Derby takes more "novice" money (i.e. people who bet on races casually and only/mainly use BSFs) than any other race of the year, so I don't think all of the players that use the figures you listed above will have that much of an impact.

93 or not, I remember Street Sense last year off the poly onto Churchill...
I think that is where my money goes..

I couldn't be happier. That's pretty much exactly what I wanted to happen as far as odds.

Now I can focus on a pick-4 on Derby Day and a healthy win bet on Sense with the potential for a good return.

But like J said, is the novice money going to be able to detect the potential turnaround on that pattern angle?

Don't get me wrong, I'm thrilled, I just don't see him as your favorite anymore. Wouldn't be shocked if Nobiz gets bet down more than he does too.

i really hope he is not the favorite!! I am just saying that is where my money goes! I'll have to find a few other horses to play some exotics, but I have plenty of time for that!

I agree, stupid money will atalk about the Juvenile jinx and you may get 5 or 6 to 1. If you still like Graet Hunter, I would think it jumps to 15 0r 20

Wait, you're actually gonna be betting?! Just kidding.

That's a good point about the SS Beyers/novice money. Even the weekend player (like myself) might see the last three Beyers

108 BC Juv
102 TB Derby
93 Blue Grass

and concur the horse is going the wrong way and the price may be a healthy 6 or 7 to 1.

We can hope at least.

That's definitely right. I think that even some of us self-proclaimed "non-novice" bettors will look at the Form and be subconsciously pushed away from Street Sense because of that pattern. While most of us here are rational enough to see past it, I think some other bettors looking for a reason to play against him will shy away.

For the record, I think he has a great shot and he'll be on all of my tickets.

GASP! Yep, I'm even willing to ruin my week by working overtime on Tuesday to have extra cash for Derby day.

hooves, I'm not sure Beyer should be adjusting figs because of different pace scenarios.

Beyer has never tried to give an honest account of all parameters. If he doesn't try to adjust a fig to account for a huge bias or a terrible trip or a loose-on-the-lead benefit, then why should he now take pace factors into account? The figs were originally a way to compare the final times of races run at different tracks, and races run on different days at the same track. When Beyer deviates from that vision, he risks undermining his own figs.

--Dunbar

The Derby was not run on Saturday. I'm still on the Street Sense bandwagon, I think he's just a notch above his competition. I posted a brief blog about it at The Dispatch - he lost some momentum in the stretch and still ran well despite being on the wrong lead. You must also consider potential regression off the Tampa Bay Derby, which is a possibility. Either way, the field is evenly matched and it should be a great horse race!

Agreed, the opening quarter was 26 and 1 I think...just really crawling alone.
I was actually surprised the horse on the lead didnt go gate to wire with those fractions.

and what, 51 and 2 for the half....teuf a definite bet against if he faces a good field again, if he was any kind of horse he'd have held on with that 'pace'.
still amazed that dominican was able to pass street sense, all things considered. yeah, a head bob....

that really was an exciting finish--almost a turf race at the end, with four across at the line.

If regression was to be expected after the TB Derby, why wouldn't there be a good chance of further regression from two tough races back-to-back off the lay-off?

I don't know. There are a lot of "big shots" who come out on Derby day and bet hundreds of dollars at a time without more than a passing knowledge of racing.

The faster one learns that beyers are a bunch of fooey the faster one becomes a better handicapper.

I wish more players thought the same. I think your saying U don't know how to use them.

I agree with Ateam about this. On Derby Day, there are far more "big shots" with deep pockets betting equal thousands to match anything the whales are churning.

Michael Jordan, Kid Rock, and every other celebrity, sports superstar, politician, and CEO at Churchill and throughout the country, going to the windows, is not saying . . . "give me $20 to win on the 9 horse."

Many are betting hundreds, and thousands.

I didn't ridicule your silly post in the selections room last night and this is the thanks I get?