Derby horses
 

I'd be curious to know what people view as the single most underrated and single most overrated performance, by a horse who is being viewed as a serious Derby contender right now.

When I got to thinking about this, there was a flood of performances by horses being viewed as serious contenders whom I felt were greatly overrated.

I would give Hard Spun's 4th place finish to a bad field in the Southwest Stakes the nod for most underrated performance...however, his prior Stake wins are one of tons in the hunt for the overrated title.

Overrated ?
How bout, Nobiz???
A very big play against at a short price in the Derby...if he gets there...

All of Circular Quay's races were pretty over-rated to me.

Stormello's Fountain of Youth. People are going to focus on the come home time as poor but look at the pace he set, 1:09 4/5 was a full 15 lengths faster than the Gulfstream Handicap. The fact that he lost by a head bob after that is a fantastic performance.

Not sure he's underrated, though... there were quite a few members on here who felt the same way as you. He ran a hell of a race IMO, but I'm concerned that 1 1/8 is about as far as he's going to go. Thoughts?

Agree...and how would you rate Scat Daddy's performance?

I thought his race in the Risen Star was unbelivable to finish 5th
after jumping the horse and rider in the spill

I agree... I think he's got a huge shot on Saturday.

Circular Quay underrated?
 

Watch the 2006 Hopeful against Scat Daddy.

That would be #1 on the overrated list.

This race often gets discredited but all I can ask is what more should the horse have done? Yeah the pace was fast and the setup was perfect for him, and then he did EXACTLY what he was supposed to do, exploding from the back of the pack and winning easy. Say what you want about any of his other races, but how could this be an overrated performance?

NT

Amazing
 

Just the opposite for me...totally dominated the field. Sure you got your race right..'sightseek"?

JG

I'm totally throwing out Hard Spun's race. OP had one of the worst inside speed biases I've ever seen there. The track had been rolled all weekend to get all of the moisture out due to concerns about freezing. He carried 3 to 7 # more than any other horse. All the speed was to his inside so when he broke out he was wide into the first turn. The jock kept him wide and tried to make a move coming wide out of the last turn. No horse was able to do that the entire weekend. Plus, that jock was not familiar with OP. I'll give him one more shot.

At least on message boards, by definition all of these horses are overrated, but it's hard not to have Circular Quay on your list. What exactly has he accomplished that people keep talking about him like he's ANYTHING special? At least Scat Daddy, who I am not a huge fan of, has delivered a few times and even overcame adversity in his Saratoga Stakes win ( over an arguably talented Teuflesburg, at least sprinter, who got an ideal set up that day ).

Circular Quay may well win this weekend, as the race is not super tough, but so far he is all talk and no substance.

I kind of agree with both of DrugS's points about Hard Spun ( God I hate when that happens ) but would say Adore the Gold is somewhat underrated. I think the entire FOY may be a garbage race but he is the only one I want out of that race.

What do you know... a logical post. :) I haven't written him off yet either.

I felt that Hal's My Hope ran a decent race as well in the FOY. What did you think?

Relative to what?

I will have to watch it again but it didn't seem to me like anyone ran particularly well.

Except, of course, Johannesburg Star.

I think a little ground can be given to Adore the Gold since it was his first start around two turns and I think he will improve quite a bit.

As far as your statement on Circular Quay, I think everyone fell in love with his quick late moves in the Bashford Manor and Hopeful and that's what earned him favoritism in the BC Juvenile. Forgotten among it all was that the pace scenario was perfect and those raecs were contested around one turn. However, based on what I said before about the Hopeful in particular, didn't he do exactly what he was supposed to do, given the way the situation unfolded?

I think Circular Quay will eventually make his living around one turn. He has shown the style thus far that would be great at 7 furlongs.

NT

Considering he was completely overmatched I think he ran the best of the rest. He'll fit very nicely in a second level allowance race at GP.

NT

totally agree

He is a closing sprinter at best who got tremendous setups in both of his stakes wins.

However, he did have significant trouble in the Risen Star, so he deserves a pass for that. His BC Juvie was weak, as he was not nearly as wide on the turn as some seem to believe, and as DrugS has pointed out numerous times was simply a beneficiary of a huge pace that collapsed. He lost by ten lengths for God's sake.

His second in the Breeder's Futurity was flat out dreadful. He had a picture perfect trip and did next to no running. The first and third horses were significantly better than him that day.

totally agree

I have to agree with Adore the Gold....he ran well, especially considering his starting post.

I think no one can argue that Circular Quay is by far the most polarizing 3-YO out there. One way or another, everyone seems to have a pretty strong opinion on him!!

totally agree.





Anyone else?

Speaking of which, Run alex Run, the 3rd place finisher in the Bashford (and maybe the favorite?) makes his first 3yo start at Oaklawn tomorrow.

He may be polarizing.....but where's the beef? If he wasn't trained by Todd Pletcher, which is to his advantage I guess, NOBODY would be talking about him.

I actually think a strong comparison could be made between Hard Spun's loss in the Southwest Stakes and Giacomo's loss in the Sham Stakes.

Both horses had outside draws, against pretty shaky fields, as clear-cut favorites. Both horses were taken out of their preferred running style, and both horses got hung up very wide (4-to-5 wide) on both turns, over tracks that had both been playing very kindly to inside-speed.

Because of the way the track was playing, Giacomo was gunned by Mike Smith to seek out a good tactical position, he never got one, but he was hung up very wide into the 1st turn, while just one length off of a 46 and change pace. He ended up finishing a competitive 3rd and running a 98 Beyer, when he had ABSOLUTLEY every reason in the world to spit the bit with the trip he got...considering what style a horse he was.

However, everyone made a big deal about him losing to the shaky sprinter Going Wild, who was stretching out 3 furlongs in distance, as well as the maiden Papi Chullo, who closed up the rail for 2nd...and was the only horse to ever pass him in a race leading into the KY Derby.

Looking back, I understand why I had such excitement for that performance of Giacomo's. But, as bad as Going Wild and Papi Chullo would become, I understand why that performance was being so strongly held against Giacomo.

Hard Spun earned a number 3 points less, a 95, and was beaten by some horses who might become every bit the turkeys that Going Wild and Papi Chullo were....however, there is every reason to expect marked improvement from him.

underated, nobiz fountain of youth... everyone is down on this horse now, he gets beat less then 2 lengths, he sat close to a fast pace, he had alot of issues in the race, he raced green, and still seemed like he was coming on again late




overated, drums of thunders holly bull, everyone was so high on this horse, he got a fast early pace in the fountain of youth, and was no where late

I think we agree on what he will most likely become and I think it is worth noting that the Breeders' Futurity was clearly a very strong race in terms of competitors. I'm not much of a "key race" guy, but I think that one was pretty good.

NT

i agree with him because i saw his race at saratoga, he got a DREAM SET UP...
and besides that he has not really done a thing in my opinion, his bc juvenile race was not that impressive

I'd love to hear thoughts on Bold Start and Sam P.

- Both were coming off a pretty lousy race in the Holy Bull to run well. Bold added blinkers and got a little more time 'tween races this time which may or may not have helped. Sam was making his first start off a layoff

- Both have raced some good ones. Bold Start's allowance win before the 'Bull was one of the better ones won by a 3 year old at Gulfstream I think (but could be wrong :D ) Sam P raced a good one at Churchill defeating Chelokee. Each earning a Beyer in the 90's

And while I have the Form open from the weekend, I'm going to say the Maiden race between Spanky and Tiago was something else to watch but not deep in talent.

Did he not do what he was supposed to do then? He absolutely walked out of the gate then won going away after enjoying a hot pace. He was supposed to inhale the field and he did. As far as one-turn performances go last year, it was up there in my opinion, along with Scat Daddy/Nobiz in the Champagne. Of course, that's my opinion.

NT

uh yeaahhh like duh

The circumstances of that race were such that he was going to get the trip/setup of a lifetime.

He took full advantage....certainly making the best of it. However, when he got a similar dream setup in the Breeders Cup Juvenile, in a route race, he was smoked and ran an awful 2nd.

When you consider his mother was 5-3-1-0 lifetime sprinting...and was a winner of the Grade 1 Spinaway (the female equivlant of the Hopeful) and that she made 5 career starts routing, and never ran better than 3rd....I think it becomes harder to like CQ's chances at a Classic distance. Even though his sire is a Derby winner

What derby prep race for 3 yo's was deeper than the FOY? Garbage... thats just nuts.

What does " deeper " mean?

The simple fact is the race was barely faster than a NW1X that was won by one horse with real trouble and the second finisher moved VERY prematurely. I don't care what the names of the competitors are. I care how the race was run....and that was slowly and unimpressively.

If you analyze races before they are run, which is what someone who thinks a race is a good one because of the names of the contestants does, you will get yourself in a lot of trouble in the future.

Sorry, but the vast majority of races that result in blanket finishes are suspect. It is very rare that a bunch of horses ran particularly well.

That was blazing fast. 1:09 4/5 at 6f, after a very fast first 4... and it got hotter than hell later at the track. That was a great show by at the very least 4 horses. People think Nobiz looks bad, I thought it was a very gutsy performance that showed the amazing ability of this horse. He stopped and started 3 diff. times. Adore the Gold put a tough effort in. And the leader until the finish, pure guts. The track changed drastically. Why not compare this to Corinthians run then if you wanna use times, it was hot by then also... This was a good race. The best prep so far.

I pretty much agree with BTW about the race....

But I think it's fair of pgarden to add that the race was run at a crazy-fast pace for 3-year-olds to be running at, going that distance, this time of year.

I felt the rail was very live last Saturday...and that does take away from Stormello's performance....however, he set that torrid pace and only got beat a lip.

Scat Daddy was the most aided by the pace, but had to overcome racing wide over a track where that was not where the best footing was.

I'd say Nobiz is the only horse in this race with any kind of realistic Derby chance...as he simply didn't have a good trip, and continues to race very green and unprofessional. He's running out of time though....he needs to get his act together fast.

well racing "green" isn't going to cut it in May. Is he going to learn or isn't he?