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Payson Dave 05-03-2009 11:54 AM
I just wondering why MTB was only 50/1.... in a big Derby Day field it seems to me he should of been a lot longer than 50/1...only angles that seem to make any sense to me might be ... Canadian backers and/or Birdstone fans... either way still seems he should have been a lot longer than 50/1

Coach Pants 05-03-2009 11:54 AM
Oh my...


yeah.

























































:wf

Danzig 05-03-2009 12:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Payson Dave
I just wondering why MTB was only 50/1.... in a big Derby Day field it seems to me he should of been a lot longer than 50/1...only angles that seem to make any sense to me might be ... Canadian backers and/or Birdstone fans... either way still seems he should have been a lot longer than 50/1

look how many people seemed to have him. of course all those picks are posted after the race ran....

blackthroatedwind 05-03-2009 12:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ninetoone
So, do you think Beyer would have felt better about a Summer Bird victory than a Mine that Bird victory, or am I totally off base here?

Thanks...

That's a good question and I guess he probably would. The figs actually worked fairly well, under difficult circumstances, if you take out the winner and look at second through fourth. Those horses ran pretty much to their Beyer figs.

Given the public scrutiny, I imagine Beyer Associates likes to see their numbers confirmed.

Danzig 05-03-2009 12:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
That's a good question and I guess he probably would. The figs actually worked fairly well, under difficult circumstances, if you take out the winner and look at second through fourth. Those horses ran pretty much to their Beyer figs.

Given the public scrutiny, I imagine Beyer Associates likes to see their numbers confirmed.

i'm liking mustket man's move late yesterday. should i expect him to do well next out, or should i just completely forget the entire race?

ninetoone 05-03-2009 12:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
That's a good question and I guess he probably would. The figs actually worked fairly well, under difficult circumstances, if you take out the winner and look at second through fourth. Those horses ran pretty much to their Beyer figs.

Given the public scrutiny, I imagine Beyer Associates likes to see their numbers confirmed.
Thanks for the answer.

DaTruth 05-03-2009 01:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MISTERGEE
first of all I love horseracing, and I love a good underdog, however I am afraid MTB winning may have made a mockery of the sport and the derby for many.The horse with the slowest of any type of speed figure, with the worst perceived "class", getting his ass beat at Sunland, with a trainer who was 1 for 32 for the year. And not only winning but destroying 18 other of the best of the best available. so poorly looked at breeding and conformation wise that he sold for $9500? Believe me I have owned and raced mostly claiming thoroughbreds for 30 years and I love the idea of this guy beating the heavy head millionaires but I think this will be one of the most single telling events to destroy the handle of racing for years to come.
Far from killing the sport, it gets people talking about the sport. Several friends who aren't racing fans and who didn't even watch the race called me after seeing the stretch run on the news. All they could talk about was how
exciting the race looked and how the horse paid over a $100. I doubt they would have been as excited if Calvin had pulled a wire job and the horse had held on by a nose.

letswastemoney 05-03-2009 01:15 PM
Mine That Bird beat Advice at Sunland. Advice won the Lexington.

It's not like Mine That Bird was facing claimers, it may have been Sunland but good horses shipped in for a $600k race.

dylbert 05-03-2009 01:33 PM
Just as in music, racing has its one hit wonders. Anyone heard from Da' Tara lately? Did he ever win another race?

Given the number of races run worldwide, longshots will crop up in graded events. It is just another fact of the game. Would any handicapping angle that I use ever tap Mine That Bird as winner -- let alone, Kentucky Derby winner? The answer is no. If class was mid-level claimer/optional allowance at LaD or FG, I could tab MTB as possible play.

Does anyone have early Breeders' Cup Classic line for MTB? :zz:

Handicappy 05-03-2009 01:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ninetoone
Beyer makes the figures, not everyone else....and he said the day before the race that last out Beyer's were historically a great indicator of performance in the Derby. That's what I'm saying. At least Summer Bird had a good last out Beyer. What is so hard to understand? It's not a bash, just an observation.
They are historically a great indicator. But historically and every single time are two very different propositions. It is horse racing. It is what is so exciting, humbling, frustrating and ultimately wonderful about the game.

MISTERGEE 05-03-2009 02:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Danzig
exactly. i doubt giacomo winning a few years back killed the sport or reduced handle.
have you compared giacomos record and connections coming into the derby to this horse?

Danzig 05-03-2009 02:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MISTERGEE
have you compared giacomos record and connections coming into the derby to this horse?
nope. but until yesterday, giacomo was the second highest payout in derby history. now, he's third. in that regard, they are very similar. giacomo winning didn't prove detrimental, and mine that bird won't either.

MISTERGEE 05-03-2009 02:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaTruth
Far from killing the sport, it gets people talking about the sport. Several friends who aren't racing fans and who didn't even watch the race called me after seeing the stretch run on the news. All they could talk about was how
exciting the race looked and how the horse paid over a $100. I doubt they would have been as excited if Calvin had pulled a wire job and the horse had held on by a nose.
who said anything about killing the sport?

MISTERGEE 05-03-2009 02:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Danzig
nope. but until yesterday, giacomo was the second highest payout in derby history. now, he's third. in that regard, they are very similar. giacomo winning didn't prove detrimental, and mine that bird won't either.
they may have paid similarly but i do not believe the situations are similar

Danzig 05-03-2009 02:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MISTERGEE
they may have paid similarly but i do not believe the situations are similar

they're very similar. a horse no one gave a shot in hell to win, did just that. don't you remember the immediate aftermath of that race giacomo won? lol people were pretty horrified. it was hilarious.

if anything, things like yesterday are a good thing. it showed once again that you can be lucky rather than good, and you don't have to be an oil-rich sheik or be able to afford pletchers day rate to win a big race. this is the only sport that you don't have to have mark cubans bankroll in order to be a participant.

Coach Pants 05-03-2009 02:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
I don't really think Giacomo and Mine That Bird are similar at all. Mine That Bird should have been at least 500-1. I have yet to see where anyone gave him a chance based on anything he has done on the track. Giacomo had more than a few things going for him and at least had some sort of form. At least a few people fancied his chances. Mine That Bird was impossible to like.
Dick Burch's gaping hole had him.

MISTERGEE 05-03-2009 02:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Danzig
they're very similar. a horse no one gave a shot in hell to win, did just that. don't you remember the immediate aftermath of that race giacomo won? lol people were pretty horrified. it was hilarious.

if anything, things like yesterday are a good thing. it showed once again that you can be lucky rather than good, and you don't have to be an oil-rich sheik or be able to afford pletchers day rate to win a big race. this is the only sport that you don't have to have mark cubans bankroll in order to be a participant.
yeah its nice about the "giantkillers" angle, but it doesnt make the heavy rollers bet any more next year. i venture to say they will bet less

DaTruth 05-03-2009 03:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MISTERGEE
who said anything about killing the sport?
Maybe you didn't say killed, but "this will be one of the most single telling events to destroy the handle of racing for years to come" is a pretty severe injury.


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