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-   -   Beyer Fig from Saturday (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=12016)

blackthroatedwind 04-15-2007 10:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
That one was hard for me as well.

It was a true test of self control.

MisterB 04-16-2007 05:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
he thinks he may have actually gotten it right.

Think is a good answer. What a joke

easy goer 04-16-2007 07:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Grits
I agree with Ateam about this. On Derby Day, there are far more "big shots" with deep pockets betting equal thousands to match anything the whales are churning.

Michael Jordan, Kid Rock, and every other celebrity, sports superstar, politician, and CEO at Churchill and throughout the country, going to the windows, is not saying . . . "give me $20 to win on the 9 horse."

Many are betting hundreds, and thousands.

well if they've already locked onto the 9 horse there go the odds on the winner:(

The Indomitable DrugS 04-16-2007 03:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cardus
Shouldn't the figure -- which as everyone should know is extremely difficult to compose given the lack of Polytrack experience to date -- be exclusively the product of the time of that race run at Keeneland on Saturday?

If that was the case, and they didn't "cut the figure loose", the Blue Grass number would have come back in the low-to-mid 80's.

Because mistakes compound themselves in the figure making process, a man made speed figure will be cut loose in an instance like that, and numbers will be assigned that fall in line that fit with the previous numbers of the runners in the race.

Stream Cat, who's career top Beyer was an 88 coming into Saturday, ran 13 Beyer points faster than the Blue Grass on raw time. The Mott filly did so as well.

10 pnt move up 04-16-2007 03:46 PM

I am interested to see what a few other figure makers come up with for the blue grass.

SniperSB23 04-16-2007 03:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up
I am interested to see what a few other figure makers come up with for the blue grass.

Equibase gave it a 110 which is about a 98-100 Beyer equivalent.

The Indomitable DrugS 04-16-2007 04:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SniperSB23
Equibase gave it a 110 which is about a 98-100 Beyer equivalent.

They have Curlin running a 122 I guess.

ArlJim78 04-16-2007 04:25 PM

Bris gave Curlin a 102.

they gave Dominican a 98, identical to his Rushaway victory.

easy goer 04-16-2007 04:39 PM

:...he thinks he may have actually gotten it right"

This quote of Beyer has been mentioned twice. What is the significance?

DOes Beyer sometimes put out numbers he feels are wrong? Do some numbers come with asterisks if they are not particularly sure? I just dont get the significance of his endorsement, his figs are supposed to be correct according to his system. Yes?

10 pnt move up 04-16-2007 04:40 PM

If the Tampa bay race is a bit fast on the numbers then that figure is not to out of line.

problem is what do you use to gauge SS ability

he has a perfect trip figure in the BC, another perfect trip in teh Tampa off a layoff, and then this crap on the weekend. I mean to mee he is probably good for a 100 beyer or so, where does that put him, right in the middle with everyone else and at 5/1 or so no thanks.

The Indomitable DrugS 04-16-2007 04:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bababooyee
Which is/was more deceiving?

Sinister Minister's 116 in '06

Or

Street Sense's 93 in '07


Maybe Beyer just likes to muck the Derby waters with "odd" figs for the Blue Grass... :rolleyes: Who is he foolin!?!? When's the last time a BG winner went on to win the Derby!?!?


Sinister Minister's figure was accurate....he took advantage of an insane inside-speed bias and won by a pole. One of the horses beaten double digits returned to run 2nd in the KY Derby at giant odds, and later win the Haskell. Another horse beaten double digits in that race took the Super Derby and Dwyer.

Street Sense was by no means impressive in the Blue Grass. He barely beat Tufelsburg, who couldn't stay straight through the lane, and was passed from behind by winner Domincan. If Great Hunter doesn't get sawed off, you have five horses finishing within a half length of each other.

I realize very little can be learned from the Blue Grass---however, if Street Sense really was a dominant horse, and really ran such a big race at age 2 over the track like some suggest, shouldn't he have taken that race?

Cannon Shell 04-16-2007 04:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Street Sense was by no means impressive in the Blue Grass. He barely beat Tufelsburg, who couldn't stay straight through the lane, and was passed from behind by winner Domincan. If Great Hunter doesn't get sawed off, you have five horses finishing within a half length of each other.

I realize very little can be learned from the Blue Grass---however, if Street Sense really was a dominant horse, and really ran such a big race at age 2 over the track like some suggest, shouldn't he have taken that race?

When the fav for a race works 6 seconds slower than his previous work in his final work I take all further results with a grain of salt

JDank34 04-16-2007 05:06 PM

agree with Cannon. SS has 2 very big positives in his corner. first, Carl Nafzger knows exactly where he is with this horse and will have him happy and ready in 3 weeks. Secondly, on May 5th he gets to walk right out of his stall and race on a track he definately loves.

The Indomitable DrugS 04-16-2007 05:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell
When the fav for a race works 6 seconds slower than his previous work in his final work I take all further results with a grain of salt

Because he was "under-trained" coming into the race---or because you think it's possible the horse isn't right?

I never get too caught up in workout times....certainly not to say they don't matter in certain situations though.

blackthroatedwind 04-16-2007 05:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by easy goer
:...he thinks he may have actually gotten it right"

This quote of Beyer has been mentioned twice. What is the significance?

DOes Beyer sometimes put out numbers he feels are wrong? Do some numbers come with asterisks if they are not particularly sure? I just dont get the significance of his endorsement, his figs are supposed to be correct according to his system. Yes?


It is NOT a quote from Beyer.....it is a quote from ME.

VOL JACK 04-16-2007 05:41 PM

Andy, where were U today on ATRAB?


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