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blackthroatedwind 05-24-2008 08:51 AM
Cheating is a problem, no doubt, but leaning on it like a crutch to explain away your handicapping inefficiencies is a bigger crime. It's always easy to blame someone other than yourself for losing. However, doing so will not stem the tide of defeat.

SCUDSBROTHER 05-24-2008 09:10 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
Was the Sadler horse that impossible? I don't think so. I suppose it's easier to just say he was juiced, but that's just another excuse, like a bad ride. Sometimes you're just wrong, doesn't always have to be an excuse.
No, it's not impossible, but you won't get it from watching a video. It favored them to move this horse up when most people were interested in the 2, the 4 ,and the 8 (IN THAT RACE.) If you admit there are cheats, and admit that most people thought the race was between those three horses, then that was the most financially ideal time for this barn to increase this horse's performance. That's exactly their mindset. Are heads turned to look elsewhere? Yes, o.k. bam!!

ateamstupid 05-24-2008 09:14 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER
Now, I also am talking mainly about SO-CAL Racing. Which is where a lot of horizontal betting is popular. Maybe in New York you don't have the infestation we have out here.
One of the reasons I don't play SoCal tracks anymore. Too much funny bidness.

blackthroatedwind 05-24-2008 09:17 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER
No, it's not impossible, but you won't get it from watching a video. It favored them to move this horse up when most people were interested in the 2, the 4 ,and the 8 (IN THAT RACE.) If you admit there are cheats, and admit that most people thought the race was between those three horses, then that was the most financially ideal time for this barn to increase this horse's performance. That's exactly their mindset. Are heads turned to look elsewhere? Yes, o.k. bam!!

So, you think people handicap the race, figure out when their supposed vehicle for cheating won't be one of the favorites, and then load it up in order to cash a bet? By that way of thinking how come every supposed cheating trainer doesn't win with every reasonably big priced horse they race?

You may, or may not, have found a reason to bet that horse by watching replays but you will come a whole helluva lot closer to the truth in general if you spend some time watching replays.

hoovesupsideyourhead 05-24-2008 09:24 AM
gotta do the work...look at belmont here is a great example how people may see two diffrent things

belmont weds may 21 race 5

subject pp 3 aegean breeze

was the horse horribly blocked or...was it tired anyway...

SCUDSBROTHER 05-24-2008 09:28 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Cheating is a problem, no doubt, but leaning on it like a crutch to explain away your handicapping inefficiencies is a bigger crime. It's always easy to blame someone other than yourself for losing. However, doing so will not stem the tide of defeat.
I'm not blaming anybody for anything. I am speaking generally about the situation out here. Like any other crooks, people are looking for a situation where people's attention is distracted. That's when they act. When it favors them the most. In a series of horizontal races, handicapping is overrated.My biggest payoffs have come from handicapping two races, and not handicapping the third race of a sequence.

Coach Pants 05-24-2008 09:30 AM
I don't watch replays. I figure I'd leave some money in the pools for you guys.
































:cool:

SCUDSBROTHER 05-24-2008 09:47 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
Watching replays is one of the ways to go about this. No one said it's the ONLY way. As for the cheating stuff, yes there are cheats. It sucks, I can't stand it, but it's there. I don't know if the horse last night had a little something extra, but if you're going to try and put one over, wouldn't you do it on a horse that pays more than $13?
One over? LOL...One? They didn't do that well late in the Anita meet, nor early in this meet. It was just time "to go." Like that owner Gary Barber said in the winners circle Sunday "Yea it's nice to win one for a change." Said it right next to Sadler. The barn just decided to win some races, and that's exactly what they are gunna do.

hoovesupsideyourhead 05-24-2008 09:53 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER
One over? LOL...One? They didn't do that well late in the Anita meet, nor early in this meet. It was just time "to go." Like that owner Gary Barber said in the winners circle Sunday "Yea it's nice to win one for a change." Said it right next to Sadler. The barn just decided to win some races, and that's exactly what they are gunna do.
why is that cheating..they may have trained em up..it happens all the time..if you truly believe that the game is fixed..why play it.. see catalano /calberese......they must be cheating.. no they do this most every meet..it will tail off..

philcski 05-24-2008 10:10 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER
They are somewhat less important than people think. The reason for that is because people pretty much see the same stuff in them, and bet accordingly. Take, for instance, this Comoros horse in the 7th race at HWD on Friday night. What do you see in his 2 previous races? You see him getting beat without an excuse, right? So, unless you're the only one who gets a little note on your video that says " attention Comoros will be officially randomly juiced next time out by Sadler, " then I really don't see how they help you in that particular race coming up. KEV, if you try to cap all these races, then you will get beat, because they aren't gunna follow common sense in some races. These juice trainers know when a horse will be ignored by the public. They know that, and they juice then. 3 times now in the last week, Sadler has done this with horses that he knows appear to be a little dull, or tailing off. You won't pick that up on a video. This is about trainers pulling switches when they know they can get paid. Do me a favor. The next time you say to yourself, o.k. that horse isn't firing. "I won't use him. He is a little dull."STOP!!! Ask yourself .." Is this a known cheater. One who has been suspended etc. in the past. If so, then it's very possible they will try a switch on you......Mitchell(On the Acorn etc. )...Sadler (Cormoros etc. etc. etc. OMG can't keep track ....I mean him and Benavidez are pretty much used car salesmen.) Please, people lets not get into a particular horse, (and whether it was "sooooo easy to get"... even though it just easily got beat twice by these same exact f'n horses.)
Terrible example. He got beat a LENGTH, despite being the widest of the three, and worked a bullet in the interim. How is this confirmed cheating???

Cajungator26 05-24-2008 10:12 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by GPK
Thanks for that. Hard for me to keep up now a days. Some of us Republicans still working for a living:D
Amen! :D

ArlJim78 05-24-2008 10:22 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by philcski
Terrible example. He got beat a LENGTH, despite being the widest of the three, and worked a bullet in the interim. How is this confirmed cheating???
of course it isn't, the guy stays up all night to figure out this stuff. i said before, its ALWAYS either bad rides by dumb jockeys, cheating trainers, or a conspiracy by those in the know.

10 pnt move up 05-24-2008 10:25 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER
They are somewhat less important than people think. The reason for that is because people pretty much see the same stuff in them, and bet accordingly. Take, for instance, this Comoros horse in the 7th race at HWD on Friday night. What do you see in his 2 previous races? You see him getting beat without an excuse, right?
You picked the Comoros race as your example? Andy and Dahoss can back me up that this is not a redboard but that horse was the play based on replay work last night. In his last race he is passively ridden by off the pace of South Coast, makes a middle move while wide on the turn, tries to engage and win the race entering the stretch only to tire in the stretch.

now looking at the three trips

South Coast is loose on a quick pace on a Friday night and gets beat anyways, how can he get a better trip - 5/2

Brian the Bull saves all the ground and makes the late suck up non threatening move to finish fast, thats exactly the horse you dont want in an fair run race 3-1

Comoros had the trip I explained, and they switch to Smith a more aggressive rider, and give him a fast work right before the race, 5-1.

That was the trip play of the night, juice had nothing to do with it!

10 pnt move up 05-24-2008 10:31 AM
trip replay work is very beneficial but its extremely time consuming and its not as simple as one may think. The type of trouble that most people think is important is not important at all, for example horses getting boxed in or bad breaks, everyone sees that trouble and its often times called out in the running lines, no value there. I think a successful handicapping book would include a detailed chapter on doing replay work along with a dvd in the back that could be used as a tool.

If time is a consideration then I would suggest teaming up with one or two individuals and sharing to cut down work, but you have to trust the opinion of the person you are sharing with. Its pretty easy to do with programs like formulator or bris.

philcski 05-24-2008 10:33 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArlJim78
of course it isn't, the guy stays up all night to figure out this stuff. i said before, its ALWAYS either bad rides by dumb jockeys, cheating trainers, or a conspiracy by those in the know.
I hate rehashing races, especially ones that were on well past my bedtime that I had no financial interest in, but the bottom line is the horse shouldn't have been 5-1. You had two horses coming out of a hopelessly bad Snow Chief, a horse 2nd off a year and a half layoff that was sent up to Bay Meadows by O'Neill for his return (now THAT'S a vote of confidence :rolleyes: ), a confirmed 1-17 mediocrity in Dr. Zaentz, and three coming out of two very competitive allowance races. Of the three, while it's convienent to say "hey, this one finished third of the three both times", why wouldn't you at least note that he had picked up two lengths vis a vis the previous race, raced widest of the three in the previous races, and worked a bullet in the interim? Not to mention, with only 4 starts had arguably the highest upside of the three? Wouldn't that be the RIGHT horse to bet at 5-1 when the other two were 2-1 and 3-1??

But it's easier to say he cheated I guess.

the_fat_man 05-24-2008 10:46 AM
What began as a potentially interesting thread, FINALLY after all these months,

reduces to all the regulars (whose opinions I respect) arguing with some PARANOID DOOFUS,
who's been in my IGGY bin for months,
and is CLUELESS when it comes to watching races.

There are so many interesting/intricate components of tripping. Guess we're not discussing them here.

philcski 05-24-2008 10:49 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by the_fat_man
What began as a potentially interesting thread, FINALLY after all these months,

reduces to all the regulars (whose opinions I respect) arguing with some PARANOID DOOFUS,
who's been in my IGGY bin for months,
and is CLUELESS when it comes to watching races.

There are so many interesting/intricate components of tripping. Guess we're not discussing them here.
Sad but true.

10 pnt move up 05-24-2008 10:55 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by the_fat_man
What began as a potentially interesting thread, FINALLY after all these months,

reduces to all the regulars (whose opinions I respect) arguing with some PARANOID DOOFUS,
who's been in my IGGY bin for months,
and is CLUELESS when it comes to watching races.

There are so many interesting/intricate components of tripping. Guess we're not discussing them here.
there are...and fortunately very few players understand them (not saying I do) so there is value there. I would also say that pace intricacies play a large role in watching a trip that are difficult to understand.

ArlJim78 05-24-2008 11:01 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by the_fat_man
What began as a potentially interesting thread, FINALLY after all these months,

reduces to all the regulars (whose opinions I respect) arguing with some PARANOID DOOFUS,
who's been in my IGGY bin for months,
and is CLUELESS when it comes to watching races.

There are so many interesting/intricate components of tripping. Guess we're not discussing them here.
why not? discuss away.


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