2019-02-17 08:06:18

FAIR GROUNDS


POST-SCRATCHES


9th: Mineshaft (G3), 4+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Harlan Punch 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #4 Silver Dust 6-1 WON ($13.40)
Next Best: #5 Lone Sailor 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #8 Phat Man 8-1 5th


10th: Fair Grounds H. (G3), 4+, 9f-T/0' (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 Synchrony 3-1 WON ($4.20)
Best Value: #1 Tiz a Slam 8-1 6th
Next Best: #6 First Premio 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #2 Sir Dudley Diggs 10-1 7th


11th: Rachel Alexandra (G2), 3yo-F, 8.5f (DD)

The more I look at this, the more perplexing it gets. As discussed on ATR, the cast has largely had moments that qualify them for success here, but whom today and how? Anticipated SCR of Bellís the One will likely leave Serengeti Empress on a loose lead and donít put it past Amoss to have her ready off the break. Positive Spirit is the universal now filly, but I sense Sistersonís Oxy Lady will be the overlooked value and can win running back to the Tempted. Eres Tu was dogged in the SBD and feels like a surprise candidate with further improvement, or an exotics booster at the least. Using those 4 as Aís and the other 4 as Bís because no one is an easy cross out here..

Best Value: #6 Oxy Lady 6-1 6th
Next Best: #4 Positive Spirit 5-1 8th
Exotics Use: #8 Eres Tu 12-1 3rd
Super Add: #3 Serengeti Empress 6-1 WON ($5.80)


12th: Risen Star (G2), 3yo, 8.5f

Though War of Will will need to overcome the outside draw, there's isn't too much speed inside him that prevents Gaffalione from setting up shop. Someone will have to move forward decidedly if the Lecomte winner runs back to last month's effort. The ones that could be in position with improvement are Plus Que Parfait (short for seasonal debut), Owendale & Country House (impressive ALW winners) and Mr. Money (BC Juvy 4th that missed Lecomte)..

Best Value: #1 Plus Que Parfait 10-1 13th
Next Best: #14 War of Will 5-2 WON ($4.00)
Exotics Use: #8 Owendale 6-1 8th
Super Add: #3 Mr. Money 12-1 7th


P4 Grid:

9: 2-4-5 (A), - (B), 8-9 (C)
10: 9(A), - (B), 1-6 (C)
11: 3-4-6-8 (A), 1-2-5-9 (B), - (C)
12: 1-8-14 (A), 3-9 (B), 6-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x1x8x5 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 3x1x4x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Full A/B/C: $120

$0.50 Pick-4 (4/3,4,9/3,7,10/13,14) Paid $83.20