Grand National watch

[my miss storm cat]

Figured this needed its own thread (since I only keep track of a few on the "when will we be seeing thread" cause I'm mean).

My early picks are strictly sentimental... War, Exotic Dancer, L'Ami, Simon and Darkness but my favorite here is the brillaint and gallant Monk and so shall root for him above all others.

(I've never actually watched the Grand National... too many fallers. I can't.)

Any thoughts on how this years edition is looking at this early date Brock? No Chance? Hwjb? Anyone else who follows this?

Exotic Dancer heads Grand National weights
By Racing Post Staff

EXOTIC DANCER heads the weights on 11st 10lb for the John Smith's Grand National at Aintree on April 4.

Jonjo O'Neill's Lexus Chase winner has been promoted to the top of the handicap after Paul Nicholls officially scratched Cheltenham Gold Cup victor Denman from the race.

The champion trainer had informed the BHA's senior handicapper handicapper Phil Smith on Sunday night to give him to adjust the weights.

Weights for the John Smith's Grand National

EXOTIC DANCER (FR) 9-11-10 Jonjo O'Neill

MADISON DU BERLAIS (FR) 8-11-08 David Pipe

SNOOPY LOOPY (IRE) 11-11-05 Peter Bowen

STAR DE MOHAISON (FR) 8-11-05 Paul Nicholls

NOTRE PERE (FR) 8-11-04 Jim Dreaper IRE

NOZIC (FR) 8-11-03 Paul Nicholls

AIR FORCE ONE (GER) 7-11-02 BCharlie Mann

CLOUDY LANE 9-11-02 Donald McCain Jnr

AFISTFULLOFDOLLARS (IRE) 11-11-01 Noel Meade IRE

WAR OF ATTRITION (IRE) 10-11-01 Mouse Morris IRE

CHELSEA HARBOUR (IRE) 9-11-00 Tom Mullins IRE

IMPERIAL COMMANDER (IRE) 8-11-00 Nigel Twiston-Davies

SNOWY MORNING (IRE) 9-11-00 Willie Mullins IRE

CANE BRAKE (IRE) 10-10-13 Tom Taaffe IRE

KNOWHERE (IRE) 11-10-13 Nigel Twiston-Davies

ROLL ALONG (IRE) 9-10-13 Carl Llewellyn

COMPLY OR DIE (IRE) 10-10-12 Pipe

GWANAKO (FR) 6-10-12 Paul Nicholls

MONKERHOSTIN (FR) 12-10-12 Philip Hobbs

OLLIE MAGERN 11-10-12 Nigel Twiston-Davies

STAN (NZ) 10-10-12 VenetiaWilliams

BLACK APALACHI (IRE) 10-10-11 Dessie Hughes IRE

HEAR THE ECHO (IRE) 8-10-11 Mouse Morris IRE

ONE COOL COOKIE (IRE) 8-10-11 Charlie Swan IRE

PREISTS LEAP (IRE) 9-10-11 Tom O'Leary IRE

BALLYFITZ 9-10-10 Nigel Twiston-Davies

KING JOHNS CASTLE (IRE) 10-10-10 Arthur Moore IRE

MIKO DE BEAUCHENE (FR) 9-10-10 Robert & Sally Alner

MY WILL (FR) 9-10-10 Paul Nicholls

EUROTREK (IRE) 13-10-09 Paul Nicholls

L'ANTARTIQUE (FR) 9-10-09 Ferdy Murphy

STATE OF PLAY 9-10-08 Evan Williams

BIG FELLA THANKS 7-10-07 Paul Nicholls

MON MOME (FR) 9-10-06 VenetiaWilliams

OPERA MUNDI (FR) 7-10-06 Paul Nicholls

SILVER BIRCH (IRE) 12-10-06 Gordon Elliott IRE

BUTLER'S CABIN (FR) 9-10-05 Jonjo O'Neill

HOBBS HILL 10-10-05 Charles Egerton

OFFSHORE ACCOUNT (IRE) 9-10-05 Charlie Swan IRE

PARSONS LEGACY (IRE) 11-10-04 Philip Hobbs

REVEILLEZ 10-10-04 Jonjo O'Neill

ABBEYBRANEY (IRE) 8-10-03 Howard Johnson

ENDLESS POWER (IRE) 9-10-03 Jim Goldie ************************************************** **************

FUNDAMENTALIST (IRE) 11-10-03 Nigel Twiston-Davies

GOLDEN FLIGHT (FR) 10-10-03 Nicky Henderson

L'AMI (FR) 10-10-03 Enda Bolger IRE

SIMON 10-10-03 John Spearing

BATTLECRY 8-10-02 Nigel Twiston-Davies

CORNISH SETT (IRE) 10-10-02 Paul Nicholls

FLEET STREET 10-10-02 Nicky Henderson

MUSICA BELLA (FR) 9-10-02 Francois Cottin FR

CAN'T BUY TIME (IRE) 7-10-01 Jonjo O'Neill

DARKNESS 10-10-01 Charles Egerton

IRISH INVADER (IRE) 8-10-01 Willie Mullins IRE

RAMBLING MINSTER 11-10-01 Keith Reveley

SILVERBURN (IRE) 8-10-01 Paul Nicholls

SOUTHERN VIC (IRE) 10-10-01 Ted Walsh IRE

TRABOLGAN (IRE) 11-10-01 Nicky Henderson

ALWAYS WAINING (IRE) 8-10-00 Peter Bowen

GARDE CHAMPETRE (FR) 10-10-00 J Enda Bolger IRE

OEDIPE (FR) 7-10-00 Nicky Henderson

HOT WELD 10-9-13 Ferdy Murphy

KILBEGGAN BLADE 10-9-13 Tom George

BROOKLYNBROWNIE (IRE) 10-9-12 Malcolm Jefferson

CHARACTER BUILDING (IRE) 9-9-12 John Quinn

CONNA CASTLE (IRE) 10-9-12 Jimmy Mangan IRE

HIMALAYAN TRAIL 10-9-12 Jimmy Mangan IRE

PIRAYA (FR) 6-9-12 David Pipe

TUMBLING DICE (IRE) 10-9-12 Tom Taaffe IRE

ARTEEA (IRE) 10-9-11 David Pipe

CERIUM (FR) 8-9-11 Paul Murphy

IDLE TALK (IRE) 10-9-11 Donald McCain Jnr

KELAMI (FR) 11-9-11 Lisa Williamson

ZABENZ (NZ) 12-9-11 Philip Hobbs

ICE TEA (IRE) 9-9-10 Donald McCain Jnr

MALJIMAR (IRE) 9-9-10 Nick Williams

COMPANERO (IRE) 9-9-09 Johnson Howard Johnson

IRON MAN (FR) 8-9-09 Peter Bowen

MATTOCK RANGER (IRE) 9-9-09 Noel Meade IRE

NICHE MARKET (IRE) 8-9-09 Bob Buckler

POMME TIEPY (FR) 6-9-09 Willie Mullins IRE

BAGAN (FR) 10-9-08 Martin Todhunter

BEAT THE BOYS (IRE) 8-9-08 Nigel Twiston-Davies

BIBLE LORD (IRE) 8-9-08 Andrew Turnell

D'ARGENT (IRE) 12-9-08 Alan King

DIX VILLEZ (FR) 10-9-08 Paul Nolan IRE

FLINTOFF (USA) 8-9-08 VenetiaWilliams

PATSY HALL (IRE) 9-9-08 Tony Martin IRE

HOMER WELLS (IRE) 11-9-07 Willie Mullins IRE

IN THE LOOP (IRE) 11-9-07 Roy Wilson IRE

KING HARALD (IRE) 11-9-07 Pie Mark Bradstock

LOTHIANFALCON 10-9-07 Peter Maddison

NADOVER (FR) 8-9-07 Charlie Mann

OULART 10-9-07 Dessie Hughes IRE

PAK JACK (FR) 9-9-07 Richard Phillips

SEYMOURWELD 9-9-07 Charles Pogson

GALLANT APPROACH (IRE) 10-9-06 Charles Egerton

HOOPY (IRE) 7-9-06 Gordon Elliott IRE

NINE DE SIVOLA (FR) 8-9-06 Ferdy Murphy

TOM SAYERS (IRE) 11-9-06 Philip Hobbs

OODACHEE 10-9-04 Charlie Swan IRE

KINGS ADVOCATE (IRE) 9-9-03 Tom Taaffe IRE

DUN DOIRE (IRE) 10-9-02 Tony Martin IRE

LE TOSCAN (FR) 9-9-02 David Pipe

OUT THE BLACK (IRE) 11-9-02 Philip Hobbs

PUNTAL (FR) 13-9-02 David Pipe

SEA DIVA (IRE) 9-9-02 Dessie Hughes IRE

WITHOUT A DOUBT 10-9-02 Carl Llewellyn

YOU'RE SPECIAL (USA) 12-9-01 Ferdy Murphy

ALEXANDERTHEGREAT (IRE) 11-9-00 VenetiaWilliams

EMMA JANE (IRE) 9-9-00 Willie Mullins IRE

MILANDEUX MILLE (FR) 7-9-00 David Pipe

BALLYTRIM (IRE) 8-8-11 Willie Mullins IRE

ROYAL ROSA (FR) 10-8-11 Howard Johnson

SANDHURST(IRE) 9-8-11 Edgar Byrne IRE

LORD KILLESHANRA (IRE) 10-8-10 Colin Tizzard

LYSANDER (GER) 10-8-10 Ian Williams

MALKO DE BEAUMONT (FR) 9-8-10 Alan Brown

PASS ME BY 10-8-08 Suzy Smith

MONTMISERE (FR) 13-8-07 Paul Murphy



************ - Poor guy, jump in peace.


http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/sho...t=2215&page=34

[NoChanceToDance]

Whatever horse carries the number 26 on April 4th will win. I know it sounds mad, but spread the word. I'm trying to get this to be a public plunge.

Other than that, I like State Of Play, but it's very early days

[my miss storm cat]

So you're saying Monk will be the 26? Good to know, thanks.

[Rileyoriley]

I don't know any of these horses but I have to go with Snowy Morning.

[NoChanceToDance]

Originally Posted by Rileyoriley

I don't know any of these horses but I have to go with Snowy Morning.

On April 3rd, just check what horse is number 26 and get ya money on........

[brockguy]

to me, 26 could be around Silver Birch or Butlers Cabin this year - not the worst bet in the world - If its quickish ground, Id fancy Darkness, he has a touch of class, if Its Soft, Black Apalachi all the way..

[my miss storm cat]

Originally Posted by my miss storm cat

My early picks are strictly sentimental... War, Exotic Dancer, L'Ami, Simon and Darkness but my favorite here is the brillaint and gallant Monk and so shall root for him above all others.

(I've never actually watched the Grand National... too many fallers. I can't.)

Don't know where Monkerhostin is... I'll stick with Darkness here (and good luck to L'Ami and Preists Leap who i think will do well).

[Rileyoriley]

Is Snowy Morning still in?

[my miss storm cat]

Originally Posted by Rileyoriley

Is Snowy Morning still in?

So far so good!

http://guardian.sportinglife.com/GU_...294298,00.html

[my miss storm cat]

Oh my God Exotic Dancer is gone.

http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/n...al_163448.html

[Hwjb]

Originally Posted by my miss storm cat

Oh my God Exotic Dancer is gone.

http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/n...al_163448.html

Tremendous shame. He's been a consistently top-class horse since blasting on the scene three seasons ago. He didn't win the races one of his ability deserved to because he happened to be born in the same year as Kauto Star.

Denman took a nasty-looking fall two out (I think he'd just have won fwiw), but seems okay.

[my miss storm cat]

Originally Posted by Hwjb

Tremendous shame. He's been a consistently top-class horse since blasting on the scene three seasons ago. He didn't win the races one of his ability deserved to because he happened to be born in the same year as Kauto Star.

Denman took a nasty-looking fall two out (I think he'd just have won fwiw), but seems okay.

Yeah, glad Denman seems to be okay. Just too sad about Exotic Dancer, poor guy.

What's up with the odds on United tomorrow? 66/1 ? I know it's tough field for her (Celestial Halo and Hardy) but that's insanity.

Sticking with Darkness, L'Ami and Preists Leap but if i were actually playing it (I'm not... rooting only) I think I'd throw in My Will too.

COME HOME SAFE KIDS.

[NoChanceToDance]

I've got six from the field in the National tomorrow:

State Of Play - maybe not the force of old, but still a classy horse and good enough to win this and should stay. However, I don't like the fact that he's crept over the 11-0 mark.

Rambling Minster - a thorough stayer and a bit of a character at home but seems to concentrate on the track. Jumps very well and very honest. Not much going against him and sure to go well.

Southern Vic - Hasn't won in a long time, but he's the right type for this race, which so often can be worked out by spotting past trends. This horse passes all of the 'big trends'. He might have preferred softer ground. If Ruby had chosen to ride him, he'd be around 14/1 rather than 33/1. He rates as a bit of Value.

Parson's Legacy - Stamina is his forte, and he hasn't got too many miles on the clock. Been kept fresh for this and well fancied by conections. Usually jumps well and has a decent chance at a nice price.

Brooklyn Brownie - An outsider with a decent chance. Again he seems to fit the trends. jumps and stays well.

Fleet Street - Not only is he number 26, but he fits ALL of the trends I follow for this race. His jockey, Andrew Tinkler gets on very well with him. I think he'll last the distance. He hasn't got the class of some of his rivals, but I don't think this race is all about class. He is a MASSIVE price, but I really do think he could go very well.

*******************

Horses I don't think have a chance:

My Will - I know he is favourite, but I just cannot see him winning. He doesn't seem like the type that will be suited by the Grand National. Not only do I think he won't win, I don't even think he'll complete the course.

L'ami - Another who has been well touted, but he's not getting any younger and is another French bred (like My Will). He should have won at Cheltenham, but looks to be going downhill fast. He couldn't win this race when he was a much better horse, so why should he win it now??

Butler's Cabin - again, he's had his chances and I just don't think he's a horse who is quite up to the task in this race. He looks poorly handicapped to me and I don't think McCoy will gain his first National win this year.

[brockguy]

I've been struggling to find horses that I like this year but come up with 5 this year:

Darkness has a touch of class about him, though I dont like Wayne Hutcheson

I backed Mon Mome at 200-1 as he was simply way too big for this.

Even though, I work with stats every bloody day, this race is slowly turing into a conditions chase - its only a matter of time when horses over 11 stone start winning regularly. Just to try to prove my point I backed Cloudy Lane at 100-1, even though hes nearly 20 pounds higher than last year. He is a much better horse last year and given what they learned about him last year, he will go a lot closer.

Of the rest, Offshore Account (again has that touch of class but wouldnt be a trends horse) and Kilbeggan Blade interest me..

Anyway good luck, Ive already spent way to much money on this race, but if one of the 5 above win (or one of my personal fav horses Zabenz places) Ill be delighted..

[TheSpyder]

Anyone know where I can watch it? Only have TwinSpires.

[brockguy]

Originally Posted by TheSpyder

Anyone know where I can watch it? Only have TwinSpires.

Hope you find a place Spyder - here's a glimpse of what you see at Aintree. Tons of rather non-attractive women wearing very little.. 40 year old grannies wearing the same outfits as their 80 year old grannies!!!

http://www.guardian.co.uk/lifeandsty...ture=345502220

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/pict...ion-prize.html

[NoChanceToDance]

Take a bow, Brock, Take a Bow............ but how on earth did you find that?

[brockguy]

I am going mental now - ridiculous. Sent off fav for the Welsh National a few months ago, I thought he was way too big.. Cant believe it, 209-1, I will never get another winner like that in my life.. Its just paid off the car I bought!!

[CSC]

Originally Posted by brockguy

I am going mental now - ridiculous. Sent off fav for the Welsh National a few months ago, I thought he was way too big.. Cant believe it, 209-1, I will never get another winner like that in my life.. Its just paid off the car I bought!!

Not following this morning but Congrats Brockguy!

[NoChanceToDance]

Originally Posted by brockguy

I am going mental now - ridiculous. Sent off fav for the Welsh National a few months ago, I thought he was way too big.. Cant believe it, 209-1, I will never get another winner like that in my life.. Its just paid off the car I bought!!

Fair play mate.

I didn't think he had a chance after getting beaten a mile off a 4lb lower mark in this last year.

He bucked two big trends today: He's a French bred and had finished unplaced in the race before.