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Old 04-29-2015, 03:10 PM
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Default 5/2 (CD): 141st Kentucky Derby (G1); 6 Graded Stakes Undercard

5th (12:38) Pat Day Mile S. (G3)

1 Mile | Open | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $200,000

1 1 Where's the Moon Albarado R J Dominguez Henry 120 L 15-1
2 2 Gimme Da Lute Garcia M Baffert Bob 118 L 7-2
3 3 The Truth Or Else Rosario J McPeek Kenneth G 118 Blk-Off L 15-1
4 4 Hillbilly Royalty Quinonez L S Von Hemel Donnie K 118 L 8-1
5 5 Lord Nelson Bejarano R Baffert Bob 123 L 3-1
6 6 Competitive Edge Velazquez J R Pletcher Todd A 118 L 6-5
7 7 Pain and Misery Leparoux J R Dominguez Henry 118 L 20-1
8 8 Peace and War Castellano J J Stevens Olly 113 L 20-1

Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 5-6-7) Lucky 7 (Races 5-11)



6th (1:19) American Turf S. (G2)

1 1/16 Miles (Turf) | Open | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $250,000

1 1 Luck of the Kitten Rosario J Ward Wesley A 120 L 7-2
2 2 Wireless Future Geroux F Amoss Thomas 118 L 15-1
3 3 Granny's Kitten Ortiz I Jr Maker Michael J 118 L 20-1
4 4 Royal Son Stevens G L Pletcher Todd A 118 L 5-1
5 5 Another Lemon Drop Rocco J S Jr Bauer Philip A 118 L 20-1
6 6 A Lot Velazquez J R Mott William I 118 L 9-2
7 7 Nun the Less Lezcano J Block Chris M 118 L 6-1
8 8 Conquest Typhoon Smith M E Casse Mark 123 L 5-1
9 9 Firespike Castellano J J Maker Michael J 120 L 15-1
10 10 Indianaughty Bejarano R Romans Dale 118 L 20-1
11 11 Divisidero Hernandez R M Bradley William 118 L 20-1
12 12 Majestico Saez L Lukas D Wayne 118 L 30-1
13 13 Tuba Mojica R Jr Smith Anne P 118 20-1
14 14 World Approval Leparoux J R Casse Mark 120 L 15-1

Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 6-7-8) Pick 6 (Races 6-11)



7th (2:08) Humana Distaff S. (G1)

7 Furlongs | Fillies and Mares | 4 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $300,000

1 1 Sweet Reason Ortiz I Jr Gyarmati Leah 118 L 5-1
2 2 Thank You Marylou Rosario J Maker Michael J 118 L 10-1
3 3 Dame Dorothy Castellano J J Pletcher Todd A 120 L 9-2
4 4 Clearly Confused Leparoux J R Baltas Richard 118 L 8-1
5 5 You Bought Her Lanerie C J Hinsley David H 118 L 12-1
6 6 Moonlit Stroll Hernandez B J Jr Forster Grant T 118 L 20-1
7 7 Sweet Whiskey Velazquez J R Pletcher Todd A 118 L 6-1
8 8 Judy the Beauty Smith M E Ward Wesley A 123 L 6-5

Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 7-8-9) Pick 5 (7-11)



8th (2:59) Churchill Distaff Turf Mile S. (G2)

1 Mile (Turf) | Fillies and Mares | 4 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $300,000

1 1 Personal Diary Rosario J Oliver Victoria 118 L 8-1
2 2 Grand Elmendorf Graham J Sancal Murat 118 L 30-1
3 3 Tepin Leparoux J R Casse Mark 118 L 15-1
4 4 Lady Lara (IRE) Alvarado J Mott William I 120 L 7-2
5 5 Coffee Clique Velazquez J R Lynch Brian A 118 L 3-1
6 6 I'm Already Sexy Geroux F Catalano Wayne M 118 L 15-1
7 7 Solid Appeal Hernandez R M Baker Reade 118 L 20-1
8 8 Sandiva (IRE) Castellano J J Pletcher Todd A 118 L 7-2
9 9 Strike Charmer Ortiz I Jr Carroll David 118 L 12-1
10 10 Maid On a Mission Osorio D A Mills Tommy R 118 L 30-1
11 11 Water Hole (IRE) Stevens G L Brown Chad C 118 L 12-1
12 12 Kitty Wine Ortiz J L Kenneally Eddie 118 L 15-1
13 13 Kiss Moon Lanerie C J Vance David R 118 L 20-1

Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 8-9-10) Pick 4 (Races 8-9-10-11)



9th (3:43) Churchill Downs S. (G2)

7 Furlongs | Open | 4 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $500,000

1 1 C. Zee Ortiz I Jr Zito Nicholas P 118 L 15-1
2 2 Bayern Garcia M Baffert Bob 123 L 1-1
3 3 Brewing Vazquez R A Lukas D Wayne 118 L 20-1
4 4 Private Zone Pedroza M A Navarro Jorge 123 L 2-1
5 5 Pants On Fire Lopez P Breen Kelly J 118 L 5-1
6 6 Gentlemen's Bet Santana R Jr Moquett Ronald E 118 L 10-1
7 7 Nates Mineshaft Geroux F Smith Anne P 118 L 20-1

Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 9-10-11)



10th (4:44) Woodford Reserve Turf Classic S. (G1)

1 1/8 Miles (Turf) | Open | 4 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $500,000

1 1 Optimizer Lanerie C J Fernandez Jose 118 L 12-1
2 2 Sky Captain Bridgmohan S X Casse Mark 120 L 15-1
3 3 Umgiyo (AUS) Geroux F de Kock Michael F 118 30-1
4 4 Scrumpdilicious Rocco J S Jr Sharp Joe 118 L 50-1
5 5 Finnegans Wake Espinoza V Miller Peter 120 L 9-2
6 6 Coalport Mena M Maker Michael J 120 L 8-1
7 7 Jack Milton Castellano J J Pletcher Todd A 124 L 5-1
8 8 Stephanie's Kitten Velazquez J R Brown Chad C 115 L 9-2
9 9 Seek Again Rosario J Mott William I 118 L 4-1
10 10 Chocolate Ride Talamo J Cox Brad H 120 L 12-1
11 11 Slumber (GB) Ortiz I Jr Brown Chad C 118 L 8-1
12 12 Grand Arch Hernandez R M Lynch Brian A 118 L 8-1

Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 10-11-12) Pick 4 (Races 10-11-12-13)



11th (6:34) Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (G1)

1 1/4 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $2,000,000

1 1 Ocho Ocho Ocho Trujillo E Cassidy James 126 L 50-1
2 2 Carpe Diem Velazquez J R Pletcher Todd A 126 L 8-1
3 3 Materiality Castellano J J Pletcher Todd A 126 L 12-1
4 4 Tencendur Franco M Weaver George 126 L 30-1
5 5 Danzig Moon Leparoux J R Casse Mark 126 L 30-1
6 6 Mubtaahij (IRE) Soumillon C de Kock Michael F 126 20-1
7 - El Kabeir SCR
8 8 Dortmund Garcia M Baffert Bob 126 L 3-1
9 9 Bolo Bejarano R Gaines Carla 126 L 30-1
10 10 Firing Line Stevens G L Callaghan Simon 126 L 12-1
11 11 Stanford SCR
12 12 International Star Mena M Maker Michael J 126 L 20-1
13 13 Itsaknockout Saez L Pletcher Todd A 126 L 30-1
14 14 Keen Ice Desormeaux K J Romans Dale 126 L 50-1
15 15 Frosted Rosario J McLaughlin Kiaran P 126 L 15-1
16 16 War Story Talamo J Amoss Thomas 126 Blk-Off L 50-1
17 17 Mr. Z Vazquez R A Lukas D Wayne 126 L 50-1
18 18 American Pharoah Espinoza V Baffert Bob 126 L 5-2
19 19 Upstart Ortiz J L Violette, Jr. R A 126 L 15-1
20 20 Far Right Smith M E Moquett Ronald E 126 L 30-1
21 AE Frammento Nakatani C S Zito Nicholas P 126 L 50-1
22 AE Tale of Verve SCR

Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 11-12-13) Super Hi-5
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Last edited by Kasept : 05-01-2015 at 04:54 PM.
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  #2  
Old 04-29-2015, 03:57 PM
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Wow, how good is that 4th race?
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Old 04-29-2015, 05:48 PM
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1 Ocho Ocho Ocho (Cassidy/Trujillo) 50-1
2 Carpe Diem (Pletcher/Velazquez) 8-1
3 Materiality (Pletcher/Castellano) 12-1
4 Tencendur (Weaver/Franco) 30-1
5 Danzig Moon (Casse/Leparoux) 30-1
6 Mubtaahij (de Kock/Soumillon) 20-1
7 El Kabeir (Terranova/Borel) 30-1
8 Dortmund (Baffert/Garcia) 3-1
9 Bolo (Gaines/Bejarano) 30-1
10 Firing Line (Callaghan/Stevens) 12-1
11 Stanford (Pletcher/Geroux) 30-1
12 International Star (Maker/Mena) 20-1
13 It'saknockout (Pletcher/Saez) 30-1
14 Keen Ice (Romans/Desormeaux) 50-1
15 Frosted (McLaughlin/Rosario) 15-1
16 War Story (Amoss/Talamo) 50-1
17 Mr. Z (Lukas/Vazquez) 50-1
18 American Pharoah (Baffert/Espinoza) 5-2
19 Upstart (Violette/Ortiz) 15-1
20 Far Right (Moquett/Smith) 30-1
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Old 04-29-2015, 05:54 PM
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So does Ocho Ocho Ocho get sent?
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Old 04-29-2015, 06:10 PM
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yes and since he has to make a immediate right turn to avoid crashing into thr rail...... he will prob. slam both Pletcher horses.
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Old 04-29-2015, 06:13 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by alysheba4 View Post
yes and since he has to make a immediate right turn to avoid crashing into thr rail...... he will prob. slam both Pletcher horses.
Funny, thought the same. Don't know how Baffert can be any happier than having Upstart and Far Right drawing outside.
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Old 04-29-2015, 06:28 PM
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if he breaks clean, Materiality and firing line will be dueling for the lead.
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Old 04-29-2015, 06:55 PM
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Originally Posted by Sightseek View Post
So does Ocho Ocho Ocho get sent?
has to...as do the two Pletcher's to his outside. What I see that could be a real problem for AP is that he has never started outside of Post 6 and he will have a wall of horses to his inside to navigate around or through to get into the preferred stalking position just behind the rabbits....

AP sitting just off Dortmund about 4 lengths behind the pacesetters at the top of the stretch with Upstart and Tencender closing fast as they cross the wire ahhh... but what the hell do I know
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Old 04-29-2015, 08:23 PM
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Originally Posted by casp0555 View Post
has to...as do the two Pletcher's to his outside. What I see that could be a real problem for AP is that he has never started outside of Post 6 and he will have a wall of horses to his inside to navigate around or through to get into the preferred stalking position just behind the rabbits....

AP sitting just off Dortmund about 4 lengths behind the pacesetters at the top of the stretch with Upstart and Tencender closing fast as they cross the wire ahhh... but what the hell do I know
I actually just read a tweet quoting Ocho's trainer following the draw and he said they were planning to take back to be in the second flight.
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Old 04-29-2015, 08:26 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sightseek View Post
I actually just read a tweet quoting Ocho's trainer following the draw and he said they were planning to take back to be in the second flight.
Too bad for Ochox3 that he doesn't have a plodder right to his ooutside. If that were the case, he could've been gunned out of the gate to get positioning.

I think with the 2 speedy Pletchers to his outside, he has no choice but to take back now. But maybe that's for the best. But he can't hang with the top speed anyway.

(Please save the snide remarks about how he can't hang with anyone regardless of post lol... trust me, you're not original)
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Old 04-29-2015, 08:27 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by casp0555 View Post
has to...as do the two Pletcher's to his outside. What I see that could be a real problem for AP is that he has never started outside of Post 6 and he will have a wall of horses to his inside to navigate around or through to get into the preferred stalking position just behind the rabbits....

AP sitting just off Dortmund about 4 lengths behind the pacesetters at the top of the stretch with Upstart and Tencender closing fast as they cross the wire ahhh... but what the hell do I know
The one is in a precarious position, as always.
as for the two outside, they can possibly tuck in behind...but, good luck with that with a typical front runner...Either way, an iffy proposition. So much luck involved, because you might break well...but what about the guy inside of you? Xs 19!

Have to think dortmunds chances improved a bit with the eight hole.

And it seems it will be a hot pace, but so often it looks that way, and then doesnt materialize.
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Old 04-29-2015, 08:42 PM
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The Truth or Else has a big chance at a big price in the 5th. Im not sure how good he is, but I have been thinking he needs a turn back. The 2,4,6 could make the pace very hot. Lord Nelson is an obvious closer, but he has not been effective at all going more then 7f. He was tons the best last time though.
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Old 04-29-2015, 09:19 PM
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The draw for me affects Upstart negatively the most. I'm likely not using at all now, where I had him underneath in the Tri/Super. Dortmund is really up against it with quicker speed directly outside him in Stanford and Firing Line looking to cross over, and speed inside of him in Materiality. He's a huge lumbering sort that takes a bit longer to get going, and with almost certain contact, may be taken off his game early. He's no longer a win candidate for me.

AP is the logical favorite, and baring something unforeseen - should be the easy winner. The two best closers in my book - International Star and Danzig Moon - will be played vertically underneath AP, along with Dortmund, Materality, Firing Line, Frosted, and Tencendur.
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Old 04-29-2015, 09:48 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis View Post
The draw for me affects Upstart negatively the most. I'm likely not using at all now, where I had him underneath in the Tri/Super. Dortmund is really up against it with quicker speed directly outside him in Stanford and Firing Line looking to cross over, and speed inside of him in Materiality. He's a huge lumbering sort that takes a bit longer to get going, and with almost certain contact, may be taken off his game early. He's no longer a win candidate for me.

AP is the logical favorite, and baring something unforeseen - should be the easy winner. The two best closers in my book - International Star and Danzig Moon - will be played vertically underneath AP, along with Dortmund, Materality, Firing Line, Frosted, and Tencendur.
Wasn't the pace that Stanford set in New Orleans fairly slow? I have a photo from the Santa Anita Derby and Dortmund was taking the lead a few strides out from the gate. Of course you can't bet them all, but a lot is being said about Dortmund's size and he hasn't really shown to me to be a horse who has difficulty getting his legs underneath him. Materiality is very large as well. I was a bit torn with Materiality and Carpe Diem, but I definitely don't like where they drew.
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Old 04-29-2015, 10:35 PM
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Originally Posted by Sightseek View Post
Wasn't the pace that Stanford set in New Orleans fairly slow? I have a photo from the Santa Anita Derby and Dortmund was taking the lead a few strides out from the gate. Of course you can't bet them all, but a lot is being said about Dortmund's size and he hasn't really shown to me to be a horse who has difficulty getting his legs underneath him. Materiality is very large as well. I was a bit torn with Materiality and Carpe Diem, but I definitely don't like where they drew.
The track was definitely playing slow LA Derby day and even slower at GP in the Islamorada Handicap the race previous where he led every step to the stretch, tired and basically set the table for Materality (subsequently DQ'd and placed 6th). Dortmund clearly doesn't need the lead, but in my opinion is surrounded by horses that are quicker out of the gate than he, thus taking a short price on what would appear to be most assuredly a compromising post isn't for me - that's all.

All that said, he'll probably win by 10 given my recent capping form
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Old 04-30-2015, 12:56 AM
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Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis View Post
The track was definitely playing slow LA Derby day and even slower at GP in the Islamorada Handicap the race previous where he led every step to the stretch, tired and basically set the table for Materality (subsequently DQ'd and placed 6th). Dortmund clearly doesn't need the lead, but in my opinion is surrounded by horses that are quicker out of the gate than he, thus taking a short price on what would appear to be most assuredly a compromising post isn't for me - that's all.

All that said, he'll probably win by 10 given my recent capping form
No, I'm sure that will be Mubta-whatever because I don't like him at all.
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Old 04-30-2015, 05:37 AM
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Kentucky Derby Post Position Draw Quotes
Darren Rogers
Apr 29 at 6:56 PM

Ocho Ocho Ocho (Post position 1, morning line 50-1) Jim Cassidy (trainer) It is what it is. Its a tough spot but what are you going to do? My plan, to be honest with you, is still to take hold and sit in the second flight. Ive got to think Carpe Diem and a couple of those others are going to go but I dont want to go with them, or sit behind. Thats what Im going to talk to Elvis [Trujillo] about.

Carpe Diem (Post position 2, morning line 8-1)/Materiality (Post position 3, morning line 12-1)/ Stanford (Post position 11, morning line 30-1)/Itsaknockout (Post position 13, morning line 30-1 Todd Pletcher (trainer) In a perfect world, I would have liked to have been more toward the middle with Carpe Diem (and Materiality). But hes a good gate horse and hell have to get away from there quickly. Thats pretty much true whatever your draw is in this race. Materiality is a good gate horse, too, so if he gets out he ought to be fine. My other two (Stanford and Itsaknockout), I like their draws. Good spots right in the middle.

Tencendur (Post position 4, morning line 30-1) George Weaver (trainer) "I would have preferred to be outside further. The further you are inside the more subject you may be to some bottlenecking going into the first turn. It's very hard to predict everything that's going to happen after that gate opens. It's an OK post. We'll deal with it."

Danzig Moon (Post position 5, morning line 30-1) Mark Casse (trainer) - Post position five isnt the middle but with this post position we can sit in the back of the pack and come from behind. Were not unhappy with the post.

Mubtaahij (Post position 6, morning line 20-1) Michael de Kock (trainer) I suppose weve got to be happy with that. One isnt a good one, 20 isnt a good one. I said wed be happy with seven or eight and we drew six so weve got to be happy.

El Kabeir (Post position 7, morning line 30-1) John Terranova (trainer) Im fine with it. I think we drew great. We got speed on the inside of us. Weve got speed outside of us. I actually glad about the post because wed be in a position not to lose ground hopefully on the first turn or get pushed out. Well sit back and see how the race unfolds from there.

Dortmund (Post position 8, morning line 3-1)/American Pharoah (Post position 18, morning line 5-2) Bob Baffert (trainer) Dortmund -- "He's a horse that gets going. He's quick. He'll be right there in the mix. It will be tougher to watch one in there, so whichever one breaks the best I'm going to key on him." American Pharoah -- "It's OK. It's good. Anything but being down there. We talked about being on the outside. I feel like 20 would have been great for me. Out there at least you have a little bit of an option. He's fast. American Pharoah is fast. Jockey Victor Espinoza on post 18 -- "I love my post, 18. I feel lucky with that number.

Bolo (Post position 9, morning line 30-1) Carla Gaines (trainer) I like it. Not too far inside, not too far out. We get options this way.

Firing Line (Post position 10, morning line 12-1) Simon Callaghan (trainer) Im very happy with the draw. I believe were last to load, which is an advantage. And with the No. 10, youve got options.

International Star (Post position 12, morning line 20-1) Mike Maker (trainer) It was pretty straightforward. Im glad we didnt have the one but thats about all. I dont think well be forwardly placed so [the horses around us] are really not an issue.

Keen Ice (Post position 14, morning line 50-1) Dale Romans (trainer) "It's one of the best spots of all of them. It might have been what I would have picked if I could.''

Frosted (Post position 15, morning line 15-1) Kiaran McLaughlin (trainer) Were very happy with it. Were the first one in the auxiliary gate, so we have a little room at the break. Theres plenty of speed outside us; theres plenty of speed inside us. The one hole is just the one that you feared. Other than that, were fine and we like the post.

War Story (Post position 16, morning line 50-1) Tom Amoss (trainer) I was a little ambivalent but my daughter texted me and said that 16 has had more success than any other post so Im excited about that. Im not worried about the post at all.

Mr. Z (Post position 17, morning line 50-1) D. Wayne Lukas (trainer) I love it. Great post. Just being out there, not being in the gate very long, being able to just pop in there and leave. That's a good spot, great spot.''

Upstart (Post position 19, morning line 15-1) Rick Violette (trainer) The way I look at it is: my job the next three days is to convince Jose Ortiz its the best spot in the gate. My job the next three days is to convince Jose Ortiz that its the exact post position we wanted.

Far Right (Post position 20, morning line 30-1) Ron Moquett (trainer) For us it is actually OK because our running style wont be affected. Well let everybody do that voodoo that they do and were just going to sit behind and watch them and come get them later.
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Old 04-30-2015, 07:16 AM
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I loved this:

Upstart (Post position 19, morning line 15-1) Rick Violette (trainer) The way I look at it is: my job the next three days is to convince Jose Ortiz its the best spot in the gate. My job the next three days is to convince Jose Ortiz that its the exact post position we wanted.


Very funny, and wise, too.

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Old 04-30-2015, 10:05 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis View Post
The track was definitely playing slow LA Derby day
I wouldn't put much stock in that -- the splits seemed, if anything, a touch on the quick side throughout the day compared to most days there, and Stanford set the slowest half-mile split of the day. Even accounting for the longer 9f trip, it seemed pretty soft, considering that LA-bred horses going two turns were clocking :47.4 and :48 flat when those types would consistently go :49 or slower most days of the meet.

Not making figs and such, there is obviously room for error in the above opinion, but at no point on that whole card did I get the feeling that things were playing slowly -- if anything, a bit in the opposite direction, if that's worth anything.
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Old 04-30-2015, 11:00 AM
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Originally Posted by Kasept View Post

War Story (Post position 16, morning line 50-1) Tom Amoss (trainer) I was a little ambivalent but my daughter texted me and said that 16 has had more success than any other post so Im excited about that. Im not worried about the post at all.
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