Pinnacle odds for Classic

Dunbar · #1 11-01-2010, 02:02 PM

Pinnacle has futures up for the Classic:

Zenyatta 7-2
Lookin At Lucky 5.5-1
Blame 7
Quality Road 9
Haynesfield 11
Gio Ponti 13
Paddy O'Prado 15
Espoir City 17
Etched 17
Fly Down 21
Musket Man 26
First Dude 34
Morning Line 34
Crown Of Thorns 34
Dakota Phone 41
Pleasant Prince 41

Those odds equate to a 13% takeout. If you assume Gio Ponti goes on grass (or can't win), it's a 7% takeout.

--Dunbar

RockHardTen1985 · #2 11-01-2010, 02:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Pinnacle has futures up for the Classic:

Zenyatta 7-2
Lookin At Lucky 5.5-1
Blame 7
Quality Road 9
Haynesfield 11
Gio Ponti 13
Paddy O'Prado 15
Espoir City 17
Etched 17
Fly Down 21
Musket Man 26
First Dude 34
Morning Line 34
Crown Of Thorns 34
Dakota Phone 41
Pleasant Prince 41

Those odds equate to a 13% takeout. If you assume Gio Ponti goes on grass (or can't win), it's a 7% takeout.

--Dunbar

Why does everyone look like an overlay, even Z?
Im guessing Z is around 2-1 at post time. Blame and Lucky anywhere from 3-1 to 5-1, but not 7-1. And QR anywhere from 5-1 to 8-1.

robfla · #3 11-01-2010, 02:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Why does everyone look like an overlay, even Z?
Im guessing Z is around 2-1 at post time. Blame and Lucky anywhere from 3-1 to 5-1, but not 7-1. And QR anywhere from 5-1 to 8-1.

on big days the money gets a lot more spread out - but you knew that already.

interesting props @ bodog:

______
How many times will Trevor Denman mention Zenyatta’s name in the race call of the Breeders’ Cup Classic?

Over 8.5 -115
Under 8.5 -115
______
How many lengths will Zenyatta win the Breeder's Cup Classic by?

Zenyatta must win for wagers to have action.

Over 1.5 Lengths -115
Under 1.5 Lengths -115

____________
What will Zenyatta's final pari-mutuel win odds be for the Breeders' Cup Classic?

Results will be based on the official Equibase Race Chart.
Over 3/1 +115
Under 3/1 -150
_________

the best deal they have, is if you bet $20 AGAINST zenyatta in futures, and lose, you get your $20 bucks back in the form of a bonus.

RockHardTen1985 · #4 11-01-2010, 02:34 PM

I think the only way she gets beat is if QR is back to his brillant self and bottoms the race out at the top of the stretch. If not she rolls home. I think shes lock city to run 1-2.

Scav · #5 11-01-2010, 02:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

I think the only way she gets beat is if QR is back to his brillant self and bottoms the race out at the top of the stretch. If not she rolls home. I think shes lock city to run 1-2.

You just signed your own death sentence, what if some Zenyatta nut reads this?

Dahoss · #6 11-01-2010, 02:38 PM

I might bet out on the over in the Denman prop. That bet might be locked up in the first 1/2 mile.

RockHardTen1985 · #7 11-01-2010, 02:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

You just signed your own death sentence, what if some Zenyatta nut reads this?

I have A B X for every horse running, both days...
Its yours if you want.

Scav · #8 11-01-2010, 02:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

I have A B X for every horse running, both days...
Its yours if you want.

I have the same, and mine is better then yours

parsixfarms · #9 11-01-2010, 02:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

I have A B X for every horse running, both days...
Its yours if you want.

Is it just me, but isn't it a little early for deciding who are "A"s and "B"s without knowing the post position draw?

#10 11-01-2010, 02:50 PM

No sprouting wings prop?

Scav · #11 11-01-2010, 02:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

Is it just me, but isn't it a little early for deciding who are "A"s and "B"s without knowing the post position draw?

I don't think so, given the amount of horses and races, getting organized now can only help, and that isn't to say that you can't upgrade or downgrade from A to a B.

IMO, it is hard for a horse who is an 'X' to all of a sudden become playable.

What I want to know is why 'C' was left out of it

RockHardTen1985 · #12 11-01-2010, 03:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

I don't think so, given the amount of horses and races, getting organized now can only help, and that isn't to say that you can't upgrade or downgrade from A to a B.

IMO, it is hard for a horse who is an 'X' to all of a sudden become playable.

What I want to know is why 'C' was left out of it

C is not for me. A is most likely, presses... B Ill cover, X is out.

parsixfarms · #13 11-01-2010, 03:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

I don't think so, given the amount of horses and races, getting organized now can only help, and that isn't to say that you can't upgrade or downgrade from A to a B.

IMO, it is hard for a horse who is an 'X' to all of a sudden become playable.

What I want to know is why 'C' was left out of it

I agree that you probably can get a first cut of who are "throwouts" in a given race (and I've been working on that myself), but without knowing final post position draws and rider assignments - and the impact that they invariably have upon the pace and dynamics of a race - I don't know how one could start to determine what "contenders" are "A"s, which ones are "B"s, and which ones could become "X"s with a bad post draw. I know that I want no part of most Euros in the Mile or any of the 2YO races that draw an outside post. Similarly, it would make a big difference in the F&M Sprint or Dirt Mile if a horse in a 14-horse field drew the 1 or 2 post (with a running-style antithetical to such a post).

Dunbar · #14 11-01-2010, 03:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Why does everyone look like an overlay, even Z?
Im guessing Z is around 2-1 at post time. Blame and Lucky anywhere from 3-1 to 5-1, but not 7-1. And QR anywhere from 5-1 to 8-1.

Partly because Pinnacle's odds are like a 14% takeout, compared to the 16% at CD, and partly because we don't know for sure which 14 of those 16 horses are going to go.

Also, as robfla suggested, we're used to smaller fields in which the money is more concentrated on a few horses.

--Dunbar

Dunbar · #15 11-01-2010, 08:45 PM

Some easy money for anyone who dismisses Zenyatta's chances...

5Dimes has these:

Breeders' Cup Classic - Church Hill Downs, Louisville, Kentucky - Nov 6th
Zenyatta, Lookin at Lucky, Blame must all run for action

Sat 11/6 101 Zenyatta wins BC Classic +285
5:00PM 102 Field wins BC Classic -345

Sat 11/6 103 Looking At Lucky wins BC Classic +434
5:00PM 104 Field wins BC Classic -567

Sat 11/6 105 Blame wins BC Classic +540
5:00PM 106 Field wins BC Classic -780

--Dunbar

ateamstupid · #16 11-01-2010, 08:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by robfla

How many times will Trevor Denman mention Zenyatta’s name in the race call of the Breeders’ Cup Classic?

Over 8.5 -115
Under 8.5 -115

Lock of the f'ing century.

justindew · #17 11-02-2010, 08:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Lock of the f'ing century.

"....and Zenyatta broke well. Zenyatta content to sit at the back early........and Zenyatta and Mike Smith are about 12 lengths behind a front-running Quality Road.....Zenyatta begins to pick it up. Zenyatta with a lot to do.....Zenyatta still back in 5th with an 1/8th of a mile to go.....Blame has won the Breeders' Cup Classic. Zenyatta could do no better than 4th today. But what a career for Zenyatta. Truly a brilliant mare."

I count 8. Under lock.

ateamstupid · #18 11-02-2010, 08:19 AM

Obviously you didn't watch this year's Hirsch.

TitanSooner · #19 11-02-2010, 11:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Obviously you didn't watch this year's Hirsch.

you've got to also factor in 6 horses vs. 12-14 horses.

i'm confident Trevor can reach 9 still, though.

Dunbar · #20 11-05-2010, 04:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Pinnacle has futures up for the Classic:

Zenyatta 7-2
Lookin At Lucky 5.5-1
Blame 7
Quality Road 9
Haynesfield 11
Gio Ponti 13
Paddy O'Prado 15
Espoir City 17
Etched 17
Fly Down 21
Musket Man 26
First Dude 34
Morning Line 34
Crown Of Thorns 34
Dakota Phone 41
Pleasant Prince 41

Those odds equate to a 13% takeout. If you assume Gio Ponti goes on grass (or can't win), it's a 7% takeout.

--Dunbar

I made an error in that post. Those Pinnacle odds were "for 1". So Zenyatta was actually 5-2, not 7-2. All the other odds would have been 1 less, if expressed the usual way. And the takeout was 23%, not 13%! I'm sorry about the error.

Here are the current Pinnacle odds, and they are expressed in the usual "to 1" manner. The 2nd number is the odds at 5Dimes.

1*Quality Road 7.5, 7.25
2*Paddy O'Prado 16, 17
3*Haynesfield 11, 11
4*First Dude 33, 30
5*Blame 5.5, 6.25
6*Fly Down 20, 17
7*Musket Man 20, 27
8*Zenyatta 1.9, 1.8
9*Pleasant Prince 50, 60
10*Etched 25, 22.5
11*Espoir City 20, 20
12*Lookin At Lucky 5, 6.25

The Pinnacle odds represent a 13.5% takeout.

Bookmaker was offering Zenyatta at 3-1 earlier in the week. They are down to 7-5 now.

--Dunbar