War Pass --DB ?

[the_fat_man]

I'd don't know if this has been touched on or, if it has, whether it's been given enough emphasis.

While I'm not particularly interested in how fast War Pass ran last out, I was impressed by the uniqueness of the splits of his race.

23.94 22.78 25.18 24.48

So, it seems that he did something atypical in dirt racing, accelerating the final split.

Wonder if anyone with a database can see how rare this is at GP (or generally) at the distance (and others).

[blackthroatedwind]

Part of the problem with the splits at Gulfstream is the short runup in mile races always seems to result in faster second quarters in those races. You actually see this in 1 1/16 races ( and probably mile races ) at Belmont which makes me question the runup they use in those races.

As for War Pass's final quarter being faster than his third quarter, well the third quarter was around a turn, and the stretch was the only time they aired him out at all in the race so I suppose it makes sense.

Contrary to what I've been reading from some esteemed posters here.....War Pass is a damn good horse with a solid resume. Unlike most of the other 3YOs, or really any of them, it shouldn't be surprising if he does something a little better than most.

[the_fat_man]

Obviously, I agree with your statement but I don't think I've seen too many horses accelerate in the stretch on the dirt going a route. You might see it every so often in a sprint on a jacked up MED track or in poly sprints.

While the earlier splits were certainly not impressive, they weren't slow enough to detract from the impressiveness of the acceleration. This was a unique run.

Of course, maybe someone can run a query and show that the run wasn't unique at all.

[blackthroatedwind]

Well, apparently you and I are in the minority around here that seem to think that War Pass is a tremendously talented horse. Very little he does on the positive side will really surprise me.

People are so used to throwing undeserved superlatives at horses that when an actually superior animal comes around they are confused.

[alysheba4]

up until now, i would say he will run away and hide from any other 3 year old.
what about that frankel filly out of empire maker. she might be as good as the rest of the colts.........

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by alysheba4

up until now, i would say he will run away and hide from any other 3 year old.
what about that frankel filly out of empire maker. she might be as good as the rest of the colts.........

She will actually have to run to demonstrate that. So far she's shown that she's good on polytrack and turf. She's certainly got a lot of ability but I'll reserve judgement until she shows us what she can do on the dirt.

[alysheba4]

agree, she just looks special to me......

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

People are so used to throwing undeserved superlatives at horses that when an actually superior animal comes around they are confused.

Sharp post. Racing fans naturally gravitate towards anything that resembles something good because of this desperate need for a superstar. It's over-used and when something good does come around, people stutter.

I think this plays into that larger idea that horseplayers are so jaded and cynical, that a good thing truly isn't. War Pass could win the Derby by 10 and people would still find fault.

Horseplayers... they're never happy.

[blackthroatedwind]

Well, Travis, if I was to tell you why I think that is I would just come of as insulting.

I will say that I wish everybody would bet enough money on the opinions they post on the internet so that when they lose it hurts enough to try to figure out why they formed a poor opinion. That's one thing you can learn by wagering that you probably won't by simply spewing opinions with little or no financial involvement.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Well, apparently you and I are in the minority around here that seem to think that War Pass is a tremendously talented horse. Very little he does on the positive side will really surprise me.

People are so used to throwing undeserved superlatives at horses that when an actually superior animal comes around they are confused.

Um, for the record, I have him ranked #1, and I am the only person on the Derby site to give him the nod over Pyro.

I also have Zanjero ranked #3 in the handicap division. (this is sort of a joke)

Originally Posted by justindew

Um, for the record, I have him ranked #1, and I am the only person on the Derby site to give him the nod over Pyro.

I also have Zanjero ranked #3 in the handicap division. (this is sort of a joke)

How's Jill Byrne doing? Is she going to be ready for the derby?

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

Sharp post. Racing fans naturally gravitate towards anything that resembles something good because of this desperate need for a superstar. It's over-used and when something good does come around, people stutter.

I think this plays into that larger idea that horseplayers are so jaded and cynical, that a good thing truly isn't. War Pass could win the Derby by 10 and people would still find fault.

Horseplayers... they're never happy.

Funny.. I felt the same way in '06 when there seemed to be a significant contingent of DT posters that refused to give Bernardini credit for anything he did.

War Pass is a very nice horse.

I think that he's a bit overrated and that he won't win the Derby.

If that makes me jaded and cynical, then.. I don't know.

[ShadowRoll]

I have to confess that I've felt a subtle bias against War Pass. Maybe it's because "[p]edigree is more important than any handicapping factor other than current form."

Seriously, War Pass does not have the most impressive stamina-favoring ancestry (DP = 13-5-9-0-1 (28) DI = 4.09 CD = 1.04). But I guess the dosage thing has to be put into perspective:
http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/hor...jay&id=3275375

We've all seen precocious two-year olds who don't seem so special when their classmates catch up. On the other hand, I was the tallest kid in my kindergarten class and remained the tallest kid in my class right up to high school (if you don't count Alvin C., who stayed back three times and was the only kid in 8th grade who could legally drive).

I guess what I'm saying is that just because War Pass has had early success and has dominated his peers so far doesn't necessarily mean that he's due for a fall. The truth is that he's given no hints that he can't get the Derby distance. And until he does, he's got to stay near the top of the list. I remember people saying Smarty Jones had no breeding for stamina, either. Whether or not that was true, he still won.

But, I will be watching Tampa Bay very closely this weekend.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

How's Jill Byrne doing? Is she going to be ready for the derby?

90% of your posts are over my head, and this one is no exception.

Originally Posted by justindew

90% of your posts are over my head, and this one is no exception.

I was told she came up lame after the churchill fall meet. Being that you're a Churchill blogger/handicapper I figured you would know if she's back in training or not.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

I was told she came up lame after the churchill fall meet. Being that you're a Churchill blogger/handicapper I figured you would know if she's back in training or not.

As far as I know, Jill is fine. She was at FG last weekend. I will pass along your concern.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I will say that I wish everybody would bet enough money on the opinions they post on the internet so that when they lose it hurts enough to try to figure out why they formed a poor opinion.

This is an easy enough one to learn. And it's ongoing.

The one I have trouble with is when I actually form a CORRECT opinion and still lose (due to circumstances beyond my control).

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

The one I have trouble with is when I actually form a CORRECT opinion and still lose (due to circumstances beyond my control).

That's just horse racing. The better your opinion is the more tough beats you will take as the more often your horses will be actual contenders and thus distinctly affected by the vagueries of racing.

[Thoroughbred Fan]

I agree that War Pass is a very talented horse. I just wish they would try to rate him before he gets hooked up on the lead of the Derby with the DWL sprinter that will go a 46 half. If he proves he can rate even a little, he could be the best.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I think everyone should agree that it is absurd for War Pass to get any credit for his comeback race - because he ran a big final 1/4 mile fraction.

Much like with Daaher in the Cigar Mile - he was allowed totally unopposed on an uncontested early lead - through VERY soft fractions - a trip that has always been and will always be considered the best dirt trip in all of horse racing.

Daaher should have been just buried here for his phony win in the Cigar Mile - but the tone seemed to be like he proved he was some real authentic excellent horse with the win.... because he got his final quarter mile in a supersonic 23 4/5ths, which propelled him to a 116 Beyer.

If people still don't want to believe that an unpressured lead through soft fractions in a small field - is that good of a trip - just focus in another race at the same distance that day.

An N1X allowance for 3yo fillies won by Halo Hollie that day, at THE SAME distance as War Pass, featured a six furlong fraction of 1:10.65. The unpressured War Pass ran his six furlong fraction in 1:11.90.

I realize it was a meaningless comeback race and all - but if a horse is going to get praised for an effort that came with a once in a lifetime type good trip - the least he should be required to do is run a good figure.