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  #1  
Old 03-24-2021, 12:08 PM
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Kasept Kasept is online now
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Default 3/27 (GP): Florida Derby (G1) Day







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Last edited by Kasept : 03-24-2021 at 07:00 PM.
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  #2  
Old 03-24-2021, 12:26 PM
freddymo freddymo is offline
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Last edited by Kasept : 03-24-2021 at 07:01 PM.
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  #3  
Old 03-24-2021, 01:08 PM
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Initial reaction - 20/1 seems like attractive odds on Soup and Sandwich.
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  #4  
Old 03-24-2021, 02:46 PM
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FATPIANO FATPIANO is offline
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This is a race to sit back and watch Greatness happen right in front of you. Greatest Honour is the real deal
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  #5  
Old 03-24-2021, 03:12 PM
Dahoss Dahoss is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FATPIANO View Post
This is a race to sit back and watch Greatness happen right in front of you. Greatest Honour is the real deal
Greatness?
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  #6  
Old 03-24-2021, 03:30 PM
blackthroatedwind blackthroatedwind is offline
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Originally Posted by FATPIANO View Post
This is a race to sit back and watch Greatness happen right in front of you. Greatest Honour is the real deal
....and suddenly, a new contender has emerged
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  #7  
Old 03-24-2021, 03:37 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by moses View Post
Initial reaction - 20/1 seems like attractive odds on Soup and Sandwich.
Is that a meal?
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  #8  
Old 03-24-2021, 03:47 PM
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Originally Posted by knickslions2 View Post
Is that a meal?
Yes but I wouldn’t give someone an Armani suit in exchange for it.
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  #9  
Old 03-25-2021, 10:54 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FATPIANO View Post
This is a race to sit back and watch Greatness happen right in front of you. Greatest Honour is the real deal
Spielberg has a very good chance of winning this race.
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  #10  
Old 03-25-2021, 03:03 PM
robfla robfla is offline
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ML is 9/2 on I Get It in Race 3: The Sanibel Isl. Stakes? Be lucky to get 2:1. I think she lays over this field.

Last edited by robfla : 03-25-2021 at 04:01 PM. Reason: changed from he to she
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  #11  
Old 03-25-2021, 03:30 PM
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Originally Posted by robfla View Post
ML is 9/2 on I Get It in Race 3: The Sanibel Isl. Stakes? Be lucky to get 2:1. I think he lays over this field.
I don’t see him laying over this field. I think 5 is horse to beat. 4 is faster too and 8 is a major player. 9-2 seems right
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  #12  
Old 03-25-2021, 03:56 PM
Dahoss Dahoss is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by robfla View Post
ML is 9/2 on I Get It in Race 3: The Sanibel Isl. Stakes? Be lucky to get 2:1. I think he lays over this field.
If she runs back to her last, she will be very tough. Totally eliminated (and lucky not to go down) by the DQ’d winner and still ran on strong at the end. Gary Barber buying her after her last is a good sign IMO as well.

Unless the Mott filly is really good, I agree with you. She stands out. Definitely won’t see 9/2 but you might get 3-1.
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  #13  
Old 03-25-2021, 04:39 PM
freddymo freddymo is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind View Post
....and suddenly, a new contender has emerged
Those 89 BSF's are intoxicating...Take it from a guy who knows intoxication
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  #14  
Old 03-25-2021, 07:08 PM
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Can someone explain the love for Known Agenda? I don’t dislike him but seems everyone is picking him.
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  #15  
Old 03-25-2021, 07:47 PM
Dahoss Dahoss is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by moses View Post
Can someone explain the love for Known Agenda? I don’t dislike him but seems everyone is picking him.
He seems like a horse on the improve. I think you can throw out the race in the slop and I don’t think the race at Tampa was a fair indicator of his talent.

On the flip side...what do you like about Spielberg? To me he seems like a horse who stepped up in Baffert’s juice den (Oaklawn) and has really never run a race that makes him a contender.
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  #16  
Old 03-25-2021, 09:39 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dahoss View Post
He seems like a horse on the improve. I think you can throw out the race in the slop and I don’t think the race at Tampa was a fair indicator of his talent.

On the flip side...what do you like about Spielberg? To me he seems like a horse who stepped up in Baffert’s juice den (Oaklawn) and has really never run a race that makes him a contender.
If we look at his last race, the figures put him at the top of this group: 90 Beyer, 114 Timeform, and I believe his thorograph number was the same or similar to Greatest Honour's best. From a trip perspective, he had a bad start in the Southwest, spotted the field about 2 lengths, was wide throughout, and still managed to beat the 3rd place finisher Jackie's Warrior by 4 lengths.

It seems like he's got tactical speed to get himself good position and work out a nice trip in the Florida Derby.

I guess my biggest concern with him is whether we've seen enough of him where he's already hit near his peak and we can't expect another big move from him. But even if he runs a similar race to the Southwest but just has a better trip, then I think he's got a strong chance.
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  #17  
Old 03-25-2021, 10:09 PM
blackthroatedwind blackthroatedwind is offline
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There is a very valid argument that Known Agenda's last Beyer fig could be more than 10 points too low.
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  #18  
Old 03-26-2021, 09:37 AM
Conrad Conrad is offline
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With no true E types in this field I'm thinking that Baffert & Javi are going to send Spielberg and lay down the challenge...it's what he does.
Latest work and his outside post says he's going.

If they're not careful he can open up a nice early lead. IMO Collabarate is being thrown to the wolves. He doesn't have the figs to compete and i think he chases in vain for 6f & backs off.
Interesting runner for me is Nova Rags, who figures to get a nice inside stalking run. Has the early speed to lay close to my expected front runner. I think he can move forward off his last and be a factor at a good price.

Not sure of my exact play, but 1-5-7-10 are my guys.
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  #19  
Old 03-26-2021, 10:17 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Conrad View Post
With no true E types in this field I'm thinking that Baffert & Javi are going to send Spielberg and lay down the challenge...it's what he does.
Latest work and his outside post says he's going.

If they're not careful he can open up a nice early lead. IMO Collabarate is being thrown to the wolves. He doesn't have the figs to compete and i think he chases in vain for 6f & backs off.
Interesting runner for me is Nova Rags, who figures to get a nice inside stalking run. Has the early speed to lay close to my expected front runner. I think he can move forward off his last and be a factor at a good price.

Not sure of my exact play, but 1-5-7-10 are my guys.
Interesting. I had a similar thought but was thinking that Nova Rags had to be sent, duels with Collaborate and possibly Soup and Sandwich and Spielberg sits a nice stalking trip behind them.
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  #20  
Old 03-26-2021, 11:02 AM
robfla robfla is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Conrad View Post
IMO Collabarate is being thrown to the wolves. He doesn't have the figs to compete and i think he chases in vain for 6f & backs off.
what figs are you referring to? Collabarate has the highest early pace figure and fastest last race BSF ( Albeit 1 turn )
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