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  #1  
Old 06-03-2019, 07:08 PM
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Kasept Kasept is offline
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Default 6/8 (BEL): 151st Belmont Stakes Day ~ 8 G1's

BELMONT STAKES

1. Joevia (Sacco/Lezcano) 30-1
2. Everfast (Romans/Saez) 12-1
3. Master Fencer (Tsunoda/Leparoux) 8-1
4. Tax (Gargan/I. Ortiz) 15-1
5. Bourbon War (Hennig/Smith) 12-1
6. Spinoff (Pletcher/Castellano) 15-1
7. Sir Winston (Casse/Rosario) 12-1
8. Intrepid Heart (Pletcher/Velazquez) 10-1
9. War of Will (Casse/Gaffalione) 2-1
10. Tacitus (Mott/J. Ortiz) 9-5

OVERNIGHT: http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbH...-BEL-20190608D
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Last edited by Kasept : 06-04-2019 at 07:14 PM.
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  #2  
Old 06-04-2019, 07:12 PM
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Kasept Kasept is offline
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans

Last edited by Kasept : 06-04-2019 at 10:46 PM.
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  #3  
Old 06-04-2019, 07:12 PM
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Kasept Kasept is offline
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans

Last edited by Kasept : 06-04-2019 at 10:45 PM.
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  #4  
Old 06-08-2019, 04:52 PM
Dahoss Dahoss is offline
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You’d be hard pressed to give two worse rides in a row than Mike Smith just did. Scary bad.
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  #5  
Old 06-08-2019, 04:52 PM
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Mike Smith could have definitely got him out.
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  #6  
Old 06-08-2019, 05:41 PM
Dahoss Dahoss is offline
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Another Smith gem
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Old 06-08-2019, 06:28 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dahoss View Post
Another Smith gem
You know what’s gonna happen here, ride of the year.
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Old 06-08-2019, 06:49 PM
Dahoss Dahoss is offline
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Nice main track these last few days. Not sure why or how but unacceptable as a bettor. Kind of taints what should have been a fantastic day.
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Old 06-08-2019, 06:57 PM
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Good call on the winner, mr hoss.
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Old 06-08-2019, 06:59 PM
Dahoss Dahoss is offline
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Good call on the winner, mr hoss.
I didn’t like the winner at all.
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  #11  
Old 06-08-2019, 07:04 PM
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Thought Spinoff was Winston, must be spinnin too many joints of the ice cream cake, which I rate at 5 ⭐️
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Old 06-08-2019, 08:51 PM
Rupert Pupkin Rupert Pupkin is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dahoss View Post
Nice main track these last few days. Not sure why or how but unacceptable as a bettor. Kind of taints what should have been a fantastic day.
I agree. You would think a business would want to make their customers happy. I bet if Belmont did a poll and asked their customers if they want them to juice up the track and make it lightening fast, I bet 90% of people would say no. So why do they do it? It is mind-boggling. Nobody likes it. Why do they do something that their customers don't like? There is no upside either, only downside. What is really shocking is that they are so clueless that they probably don't know that people don't like it. I wonder who the guy is that is in charge who makes these absurd decisions.

As handicappers, we can pick up a bias pretty quickly if we're paying attention. So I don't feel like I have any big disadvantage if there is a bias. But by the same token, I don't like it. It's just one extra thing to worry about and an extra factor to focus on. I know that tracks are not going to be the exact same every day. There are factors that can change the track that are out of their control. That's part of the game. I'm fine with that. But for them to go out of their way to intentionally change the track and make it lightening fast is inexcusable.
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Old 06-08-2019, 10:55 PM
blackthroatedwind blackthroatedwind is offline
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How is a track being "lightning fast" inexcusable? How does that affect the results?

Asking for a friend.
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Old 06-08-2019, 11:39 PM
Rupert Pupkin Rupert Pupkin is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind View Post
How is a track being "lightning fast" inexcusable? How does that affect the results?

Asking for a friend.
It is inexcusable for them to intentionally mess with the track to make it faster. People play Belmont every day and know how the track plays. Sure it can change a little bit from day to day. There isn't much they can do about that. Horse players accept that.

But why would management go out of their way to intentionally make the track lightening fast (which causes a speed bias)? Nobody wants them to do that. It makes the track play totally differently from the way it normally plays. How could they not know that their customers don't want them to do that? Do they think people want to have to totally change the way they handicap?
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Old 06-09-2019, 12:16 AM
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Default Playing the bias 101

It must have affected the results a little. There was one guy who did not have a single winner on top on Friday or Saturday. Pretty amazing feat on the 2 big days of the meet with all those races.
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Last edited by Alabama Stakes : 06-09-2019 at 09:36 AM.
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Old 06-09-2019, 07:59 AM
freddymo freddymo is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin View Post
It is inexcusable for them to intentionally mess with the track to make it faster. People play Belmont every day and know how the track plays. Sure it can change a little bit from day to day. There isn't much they can do about that. Horse players accept that.

But why would management go out of their way to intentionally make the track lightening fast (which causes a speed bias)? Nobody wants them to do that. It makes the track play totally differently from the way it normally plays. How could they not know that their customers don't want them to do that? Do they think people want to have to totally change the way they handicap?
Who cares if it's slow or fast? You care there is a significant bias, for two reasons, the first is being it's hard to toss logical horses into plays if their style doesn't fit the bias, and the second is its more work because now you have to weight their effort the next time they run which is tricky.
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  #17  
Old 06-09-2019, 08:59 AM
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Default Tacitus

I’d say I’m more upset Tacitus ran about two miles in a 1 1/2 mile race. Sir Winston ran the route exactly as I hoped the ten would. Four wide all the way around isn’t much of a ride.
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  #18  
Old 06-09-2019, 11:05 AM
Dahoss Dahoss is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes View Post
It must have affected the results a little. There was one guy who did not have a single winner on top on Friday or Saturday. Pretty amazing feat on the 2 big days of the meet with all those races.
Sad stuff from a pathetic guy.
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  #19  
Old 06-09-2019, 11:27 AM
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Don’t be such a baby
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  #20  
Old 06-09-2019, 11:30 AM
blackthroatedwind blackthroatedwind is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes View Post
It must have affected the results a little. There was one guy who did not have a single winner on top on Friday or Saturday. Pretty amazing feat on the 2 big days of the meet with all those races.
Even someone as clueless as you should know that picking races well in advance on tracks that end up with extreme biases is a very dicey proposition. However, it's even more disgraceful when, given everyone here knows you look at every pick I make, I have been literally crushing it over the past month ( and frankly been strong for even longer than that ). But, two days where, and you know this too, I repeatedly said I was putting very likely and logical horses second to try to find pricier alternatives, none of my "top selections" won erases all else. Good for you. You got me. You are also the worst kind of person....someone who was actually a friend of mine outside of cyberspace, who became so jealous of my relatively microscopic supposed success, that you decided to lash out on the internet ( ..and, yeah, there were those infamous Phish tickets too ). Honestly, it doesn't get any lower than you.
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