Derby Trail Forums

Go Back   Derby Trail Forums > Stakes Archive
Register FAQ Members List Calendar Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #21  
Old 12-26-2020, 08:21 PM
Dahoss Dahoss is offline
Garden State Park
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Posts: 8,107
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by King Glorious View Post
8f or under, i'm taking Gamine. Over that, Charlatan.

No, he didn't. But I would chose him as top 3yo male.

My question for you. Who do you think is the better horse? Charlatan or Authentic? Not which one had the better year but is the better horse.
Probably Charlatan, but if you asked me after the Classic I might have answered different.

Thank god you donít have any eclipse votes
Reply With Quote
  #22  
Old 12-26-2020, 09:04 PM
RolloTomasi's Avatar
RolloTomasi RolloTomasi is offline
Santa Anita
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 3,300
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by King Glorious View Post
Blackthroatedwind uses the silly argument that he proved he wasn't a superior distance horse in the Arkansas Derby. I'm assuming here that he thinks Authentic proved he was a superior distance horse in the Haskell. Do you share that ridiculous opinion? Nobody watching that day thought that Authentic would handle another furlong well. Yet, he did.
Authentic was one of the worst training jobs in recent memory. The horse was a uncontrollable run-off, couldn't break cleanly from the gate, couldn't run in a straight line. How the supposed GOAT trainer couldn't rectify these problems by the time the horse made a couple of starts is beyond me.

Nevertheless, by the time Authentic ran in the Haskell, he had shed most of those faults. The only reason to question his stamina was his pedigree--and to be frank, the only times he didn't get to set an unpressured pace, he lost (SA Derby, Preakness). In years where there was an actual full and healthy 3yo crop, he probably would fare no better than a horse like Thunder Rumble.

The Haskell was misinterpreted by many on two points. The guy that owned Tiz The Law shamelessly suggested that the horse must have been juiced in the Derby because it was clear in the Haskell that he had no stamina. The reality is that without Ny Traffic in the race, Authentic wins the Haskell by open lengths and no one questions his stamina. Authentic did not wilt in the stretch so much as Ny Traffic ran out of his skin (Saffie Joseph at Monmouth...who knew?). In addition, as per usual, Mike Smith did no favors for his mount when choosing to hand ride from the 1/8 pole home.

People saw what they wanted to see in the Haskell. But the point was moot because Authentic was handed both the Derby and the Classic on a silver platter. For some unknown reason other trainers with good speed horses refused to engage the horse early even though he was buried in SA Derby in a speed duel.

That's not to say a large chunk of Authentic's success wasn't due to the efforts of Bob Baffert. Never mind the easy pace scenarios, when you divest the crop of Nadal, Charlatan, Uncle Chuck, Cezanne, and Eight Rings over the course of the year you're certainly clearing a path to success. He even was able to get one of the only other horses in the Derby coming off a triple digit Beyer to scratch only minutes before the race (Thousand Words).
Reply With Quote
  #23  
Old 12-26-2020, 09:05 PM
King Glorious's Avatar
King Glorious King Glorious is offline
Arlington Park
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Beaumont, CA
Posts: 4,427
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dahoss View Post
Probably Charlatan, but if you asked me after the Classic I might have answered different.

Thank god you donít have any eclipse votes
After the Classic, I would have said Authentic was the clear winner. I would change it now. Even then, I thought Charlatan was the better horse but one graded stakes win just wasn't enough to overcome the resume advantage Authentic had. Honestly, it still isn't but it for me Charlatan > Authentic on talent is more than Authentic > Charlatan on resume.
__________________
The real horses of the year (1986-2020)
Manila, Java Gold, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Go for Wand, In Excess, Paseana, Kotashaan, Holy Bull, Cigar, Alphabet Soup, Formal Gold, Skip Away, Artax, Tiznow, Point Given, Azeri, Candy Ride, Smarty Jones, Ghostzapper, Invasor, Curlin, Zenyatta, Zenyatta, Goldikova, Havre de Grace, Wise Dan, Wise Dan, California Chrome, American Pharoah, Arrogate, Gun Runner, Accelerate, Maximum Security, Gamine
Reply With Quote
  #24  
Old 12-26-2020, 09:21 PM
Dahoss Dahoss is offline
Garden State Park
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Posts: 8,107
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by King Glorious View Post
After the Classic, I would have said Authentic was the clear winner. I would change it now. Even then, I thought Charlatan was the better horse but one graded stakes win just wasn't enough to overcome the resume advantage Authentic had. Honestly, it still isn't but it for me Charlatan > Authentic on talent is more than Authentic > Charlatan on resume.
I think youíre overestimating todayís effort a bit. That was not the Nashville we saw last month and my guess is heís finally turned into a pumpkin. The others arenít very good.

For the record Charlatan still has one graded win. He was DQd in Arkansas. Hay and oats Bob.
Reply With Quote
  #25  
Old 12-26-2020, 09:30 PM
blackthroatedwind blackthroatedwind is offline
Jerome Park
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 9,545
Default

Interesting how quickly people forget Nadal ran the faster race in Arkansas.

All the "Charlatan is a router" nonsense clogging the internet will eventually get flushed away and forgotten. Maybe in a soft spot, if he can control the pace, but I'm highly skeptical.

How bout just hoping he stays sound so he can run in the Carter, Met Mile, and Forego.
__________________
Just more nebulous nonsense from BBB
Reply With Quote
  #26  
Old 12-26-2020, 09:59 PM
King Glorious's Avatar
King Glorious King Glorious is offline
Arlington Park
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Beaumont, CA
Posts: 4,427
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind View Post
Interesting how quickly people forget Nadal ran the faster race in Arkansas.

All the "Charlatan is a router" nonsense clogging the internet will eventually get flushed away and forgotten. Maybe in a soft spot, if he can control the pace, but I'm highly skeptical.

How bout just hoping he stays sound so he can run in the Carter, Met Mile, and Forego.
Nobody has forgotten that. But to say he ran the faster race is subjective.....as the BC Sprint vs the Perryville taught us.

What you're not doing is taking into account the expected competition. If you're saying he can't beat top competition at a distance, that's one thing. But Kiss Today Goodbye and Idol just ran 1-2 in the San Antonio and I don't know what great horses you're expecting for the Big Cap but I don't see anything that I'd say outclasses Charlatan.

Your problem is that you can only seem to understand this concept when it comes to horses that you believe in but when others believe the same concept about other horses, it's nonsense to you. Like with Gamine. These were your words:

"She is better going shorter, but still better than almost every horse of her sex going long....and most males too."

So for me to say a horse that's won a grades stakes race at 9f can run long is silly and nonsense but for you to say that a horse that's only won stakes at 8f and under and was easily beaten in her 9f race and much less than dominant in her 8.5f race is........you know what, nevermind. The point is proven.
__________________
The real horses of the year (1986-2020)
Manila, Java Gold, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Go for Wand, In Excess, Paseana, Kotashaan, Holy Bull, Cigar, Alphabet Soup, Formal Gold, Skip Away, Artax, Tiznow, Point Given, Azeri, Candy Ride, Smarty Jones, Ghostzapper, Invasor, Curlin, Zenyatta, Zenyatta, Goldikova, Havre de Grace, Wise Dan, Wise Dan, California Chrome, American Pharoah, Arrogate, Gun Runner, Accelerate, Maximum Security, Gamine
Reply With Quote
  #27  
Old 12-26-2020, 10:04 PM
blackthroatedwind blackthroatedwind is offline
Jerome Park
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 9,545
Default

I applaud you for your most excellent high quality trolling but you don't fool me with your silliness.

Stick with Rollo....he's an easy mark.
__________________
Just more nebulous nonsense from BBB
Reply With Quote
  #28  
Old 12-26-2020, 10:07 PM
blackthroatedwind blackthroatedwind is offline
Jerome Park
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 9,545
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by King Glorious View Post

"She is better going shorter, but still better than almost every horse of her sex going long....and most males too."
Right, you do understand that statement is 100% correct...right?

What percentage of the thousands of race horses out there are better than her even going long? This is a math question, so take your time.

I stand corrected, you aren't such a high quality troll.
__________________
Just more nebulous nonsense from BBB
Reply With Quote
  #29  
Old 12-26-2020, 10:10 PM
King Glorious's Avatar
King Glorious King Glorious is offline
Arlington Park
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Beaumont, CA
Posts: 4,427
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind View Post
I applaud you for your most excellent high quality trolling but you don't fool me with your silliness.

Stick with Rollo....he's an easy mark.
LOL. You know the comparison is exactly the same. Both are great at sprinting and we are basing our opinions on them going further on what we think will happen. Nobody is saying they would be better at going longer distances than sprinting just that they can do it effectively and we are saying it more based on the prospective competition more than anything else.

My argument for Charlatan is stronger than yours for Gamine. Everyone can see it. Just take this L and move on buddy.
__________________
The real horses of the year (1986-2020)
Manila, Java Gold, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Go for Wand, In Excess, Paseana, Kotashaan, Holy Bull, Cigar, Alphabet Soup, Formal Gold, Skip Away, Artax, Tiznow, Point Given, Azeri, Candy Ride, Smarty Jones, Ghostzapper, Invasor, Curlin, Zenyatta, Zenyatta, Goldikova, Havre de Grace, Wise Dan, Wise Dan, California Chrome, American Pharoah, Arrogate, Gun Runner, Accelerate, Maximum Security, Gamine
Reply With Quote
  #30  
Old 12-26-2020, 11:46 PM
Alabama Stakes's Avatar
Alabama Stakes Alabama Stakes is offline
Del Mar
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: suffolk downs
Posts: 5,118
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind View Post
This is low quality trolling.

If nothing else, Charlatan proved in the Arkansas Derby he is not a superior distance horse. Up to one mile, however, is a different story.
What was so bad about the Arkansas Derby ? He win by 6 in 1:48 and change?
How exactly does that prove that he is not a superior distance hoss ?
Third lifetime start....1:48 and change going 9 furlongs.....not much slower than the monster effort by Nadal who had a perfect trip.
Nadal was very good, but that doesn’t mean Charlatan wasn’t very good too. He has been very impressive in every race.. he dominates. He goes funny though.

The 3 hoss looked like he didn’t really handle the track. The poor job they did harrowing the track on the turn didn’t help his cause either as he shied Just when he could have been trying to fight back a little. I’d give him another chance soon.
__________________
Baylor bears knock off undefeated Gonzaga

Last edited by Alabama Stakes : 12-28-2020 at 12:43 AM.
Reply With Quote
  #31  
Old 12-27-2020, 11:03 AM
Dahoss Dahoss is offline
Garden State Park
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Posts: 8,107
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by King Glorious View Post

So for me to say a horse that's won a grades stakes race at 9f can run long is silly and nonsense but for you to say that a horse that's only won stakes at 8f and under and was easily beaten in her 9f race and much less than dominant in her 8.5f race is........you know what, nevermind. The point is proven.
Heís right....this is high quality trolling...or at least an attempt at it.

You view Gamine as the second coming, but here you speak of her not so glowingly. Charlatan ran well. Before we crown him your newest best horse ever can we see him run again in the next 6 months?
Reply With Quote
  #32  
Old 12-27-2020, 01:08 PM
Kasept's Avatar
Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Greenwich, NY
Posts: 38,653
Default



__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. -- Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. -- Thomas Paine
Reply With Quote
  #33  
Old 12-27-2020, 04:03 PM
King Glorious's Avatar
King Glorious King Glorious is offline
Arlington Park
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Beaumont, CA
Posts: 4,427
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dahoss View Post
Heís right....this is high quality trolling...or at least an attempt at it.

You view Gamine as the second coming, but here you speak of her not so glowingly. Charlatan ran well. Before we crown him your newest best horse ever can we see him run again in the next 6 months?
He's not right. I think the same thing about Gamine as I do Charlatan. I believe she will stretch out and win top level races going two-turns and 9f. I believe the same thing about Charlatan. I'm consistent in that I think the combination of their talent + the depressed level of competition will lead to bigger things for both. He can see it with Gamine but for anyone to suggest the same with Charlatan is silly, even though the evidence points more towards Charlatan doing it than Gamine cause at least he's won at 9f while Gamine was handled easily.
__________________
The real horses of the year (1986-2020)
Manila, Java Gold, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Go for Wand, In Excess, Paseana, Kotashaan, Holy Bull, Cigar, Alphabet Soup, Formal Gold, Skip Away, Artax, Tiznow, Point Given, Azeri, Candy Ride, Smarty Jones, Ghostzapper, Invasor, Curlin, Zenyatta, Zenyatta, Goldikova, Havre de Grace, Wise Dan, Wise Dan, California Chrome, American Pharoah, Arrogate, Gun Runner, Accelerate, Maximum Security, Gamine
Reply With Quote
  #34  
Old 12-27-2020, 06:55 PM
Dahoss Dahoss is offline
Garden State Park
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Posts: 8,107
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by King Glorious View Post
He's not right. I think the same thing about Gamine as I do Charlatan. I believe she will stretch out and win top level races going two-turns and 9f. I believe the same thing about Charlatan. I'm consistent in that I think the combination of their talent + the depressed level of competition will lead to bigger things for both. He can see it with Gamine but for anyone to suggest the same with Charlatan is silly, even though the evidence points more towards Charlatan doing it than Gamine cause at least he's won at 9f while Gamine was handled easily.
What he is saying (I think) is the hyperbole that we are seeing here from you and others on the internet about Charlatan is silly. He won a 7 furlong race and you (and others) have him being robbed of the triple crown because he wasnít healthy.

Heís a really nice and exciting horse. A really nice and exciting horse that has made 4 starts in his career and heíll be 4 next week.

Maybe Charlatan will be dominant going 9 furlongs and farther next year. Based on his final 3/16ths yesterday I think the jury is still out. Letís not forget that many people thought Gamine would have no problem with 9 furlongs, especially since she beat the eventual Ashland winner going two turns at Oaklawn. How did that work out?

The only thing more ridiculous than Charlatan wouldíve won the triple crown is the notion that Baffert didnít have him 100% yesterday.
Reply With Quote
  #35  
Old 12-27-2020, 08:42 PM
King Glorious's Avatar
King Glorious King Glorious is offline
Arlington Park
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Beaumont, CA
Posts: 4,427
Default

The thing is, I can understand anyone saying I'm being premature about Gamine and Charlatan. Not only understand it but even agree with it. It has to be proven on the track. The only thing I'm saying is be consistent. Whatever you think about one, you almost have to think the same about the other. You're consistent in your position that you want to see it first. I'm consistent in mine that I think both can do it. He says he thinks Gamine can but anyone that says Charlatan can is being silly.
__________________
The real horses of the year (1986-2020)
Manila, Java Gold, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Go for Wand, In Excess, Paseana, Kotashaan, Holy Bull, Cigar, Alphabet Soup, Formal Gold, Skip Away, Artax, Tiznow, Point Given, Azeri, Candy Ride, Smarty Jones, Ghostzapper, Invasor, Curlin, Zenyatta, Zenyatta, Goldikova, Havre de Grace, Wise Dan, Wise Dan, California Chrome, American Pharoah, Arrogate, Gun Runner, Accelerate, Maximum Security, Gamine
Reply With Quote
  #36  
Old 12-27-2020, 10:20 PM
RolloTomasi's Avatar
RolloTomasi RolloTomasi is offline
Santa Anita
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 3,300
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by King Glorious View Post
After the Classic, I would have said Authentic was the clear winner. I would change it now. Even then, I thought Charlatan was the better horse but one graded stakes win just wasn't enough to overcome the resume advantage Authentic had. Honestly, it still isn't but it for me Charlatan > Authentic on talent is more than Authentic > Charlatan on resume.
Not sure what your criteria is for "talent" other than an unbeaten record. You keep saying Charlatan has won at 9f but he hasn't; he was disqualified in AK for testing positive for a local anesthetic.

Despite having a local anesthetic in his system at the time of the weaker division of the Arkansas Derby, the horse regressed 10 BSF points on the stretch-out under absolutely perfect conditions.

Meanwhile, Authentic, who presumably is less talented because he lost a couple of races, increased his speed figures every time he stepped up in trip and company. And he stayed sound while doing it. 87-90-98-100-105-111; no mean feat.

The only chink in Authentic's armor was that he failed to prove he could survive a speed duel although he hardly packed it in in either of his losses.

Charlatan hasn't survived a speed duel as of yet and nothing he did yesterday suggest he will be able to do so over a route of ground. The only thing he proved was that he will willingly sit off a run-off type (the way Gamine did behind Serengeti Empress) in a sprint. He was still well clear of the rest of the field early.

Considering that with his sharp speed figure drop off in his only route attempt (despite being left with a clear unpressured lead throughout) and it is clear you are way overboard on all of this.
Reply With Quote
  #37  
Old 12-27-2020, 10:38 PM
blackthroatedwind blackthroatedwind is offline
Jerome Park
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 9,545
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by RolloTomasi View Post
Not sure what your criteria is for "talent" other than an unbeaten record. You keep saying Charlatan has won at 9f but he hasn't; he was disqualified in AK for testing positive for a local anesthetic.

Despite having a local anesthetic in his system at the time of the weaker division of the Arkansas Derby, the horse regressed 10 BSF points on the stretch-out under absolutely perfect conditions.

Meanwhile, Authentic, who presumably is less talented because he lost a couple of races, increased his speed figures every time he stepped up in trip and company. And he stayed sound while doing it. 87-90-98-100-105-111; no mean feat.

The only chink in Authentic's armor was that he failed to prove he could survive a speed duel although he hardly packed it in in either of his losses.

Charlatan hasn't survived a speed duel as of yet and nothing he did yesterday suggest he will be able to do so over a route of ground. The only thing he proved was that he will willingly sit off a run-off type (the way Gamine did behind Serengeti Empress) in a sprint. He was still well clear of the rest of the field early.

Considering that with his sharp speed figure drop off in his only route attempt (despite being left with a clear unpressured lead throughout) and it is clear you are way overboard on all of this.
Other than having him disqualified from the Alaska Derby, you pretty much nailed it.

Still, it's kind of an embarrassing error.
__________________
Just more nebulous nonsense from BBB
Reply With Quote
  #38  
Old 12-27-2020, 10:59 PM
RolloTomasi's Avatar
RolloTomasi RolloTomasi is offline
Santa Anita
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 3,300
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind View Post
Still, it's kind of an embarrassing error.
G**damn public education system.

I'm not too embarrassed, though.

Pretty sure that if we conducted an internet poll of the American populace on whether or not 'AK' is the correct abbreviation for Arkansas I'd have a good chance of coming out on top.

Kind of like that fable in Serpico. If the king drinks the poisoned water he will regain his sanity.
Reply With Quote
Reply


Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 02:59 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.