#21
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I guess that all depends on your definition of fair. It certainly doesn't play like dirt.
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#22
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I am also curious to see how she runs without her feet getting a taste of it, pre-race. At Hollywood, you can't work at SA and run at Hollywood, distinct disadvantage. Baffert is bringing all his horses over for one work pre-race now |
#23
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Here are my figures for the race. I posted in a version with running lines that most will be familiar with here.
Arlington Park, R8, July 11 For a brief explanation of the figures, see this link. Thanks for the kind words Steve. At this time, I cap the number of users and don't have openings, so I try not to get into specifics much. I will certainly be rooting for you guys. The numbers themselves show what a great job Chuck has done already! Again, it is the surface that is the tough part of the equation. All that, and I loath chalk! |
#24
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Thanks for the PaceFigs - I like them.
What I want to know is: has Sumwon broken away from her hotwalkers this week? |
#25
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The pace is going to be fast, 24 quiren points by 4 runners! and ms peachtree off a long layoff made a winning bid before tiring, figures to be tighter for this one. She showed in that kee lose by a head she can handle a fast pace, something she will see today. Honestly I dont see how the outside horse can win this, she takes back she is hooked wide, she guns she will be used early and there is a couple legit closers in the race. |
#26
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#27
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1. there is alot of speed signed up on a flat turn mile 2. an outside horse has several speed horses inside of them 3. is not faster then the other speed to clear and run them off their feet You really furthered the handicapping discussion by blatantly making the 9-hole statement without offering any supporting handicapping logic why I am wrong. She does have the second best figure in the race so its not impossible for her to win if some other riders take back and she breaks right on top thus elimating some of the speed, I just think at low odds its a very risky proposition. |
#28
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Funny how things change...3 months ago everybody thought we were hopelessly overmatched and now everyone says we are a possibly overbet favorite. I'd rather be the latter.
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#29
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By the way, going a mile out of a chute makes the outside post a lesser factor being that there is 1/2 mile to get position
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#30
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#31
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#32
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and you know you like to bet too
__________________
ΜΟΛΩΝ ΛΑΒΕ |
#33
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Look, she is not winning hooked 3 or 4 wide on a fast pace, thats the fast track to an up the track finish. Can she take back and save some ground as which may be needed in this field, I dont think so, but if she wins I think she will need to do so. Two posts and you have taken this one event and tried to use a large quantity to make your point. Each race has a dynamic, I am talking about this race only after looking at the pp's. In general a horse with a E/P or P running style was stuck outside I would say it would be tough but not impossible, the horse in question has never shown a style like that. |
#34
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First of all, she is not going to be chalk imo. The Douglas/Pletcher horse I'm sure will be a solid favorite. my guess is Sumwon is 3 or 4 to 1 by post time.
Second, I can easily see her getting a nice trip from that post settling in third or fourth, perhaps 2-3 lengths off the lead. With the long run up the backside there will be plenty of time to get into a decent position for the turn, meaning not 3-4 wide. I definitely don't subscribe to the gun it or take back idea. With her natural speed in 2-3 furlongs she will have easily cleared all but a few horses, without gunning. she can start to move on the leaders on the turn and I think with the late power she showed last race she has a decent shot at taking it. I also like where she is in the form cycle, (three improving starts, followed by a short break and a nice work time before last), meaning perhaps she moves forward again. Objectively speaking, I do always prefer to see recent poly form before wagering on a horse. Some of the local horses have a few races on the surface and that can be an advantage. |
#35
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Who said anything about getting hooked 3-4 wide on a hot pace? I said she can travel with the second flight, then make a 3-4 wide move on the turn and win. Good horses do it all the time. And this isn't a turf race where you can hug the rail on the turn and then swing out for the stretch drive. She's going to have to make her move somewhere on the turn, so I don't know where you want her to "take back and save some ground." |
#36
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#37
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I also dont have the chart, how have the horses who were on the pace with her last time faired next out? That would give us an idea how legit that last figure was? |
#38
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I agree with your logic when its a 5.5 or six furlong race. In that scenario from the outside you either need to get the lead or drop in somewhere rather quickly. The only difference that I see is in this case like I said you have a very long run and it lessens the severity of the post imo. anyway we'll see in a few days who was closer to the truth! |
#39
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#40
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