7/31: Nick Tammaro’s Saratoga Analysis presented by NYRA Bets

[Kasept]

SARATOGA – 7/31/20
Nick Tammaro ~ @NTamm1215

Race 1- 1st #6 PAZZION 2ND #2 STYLISH RAGS 3RD #7 KRUBERA

#6 PAZZION is by a 13% debut sire and is the third foal to race out of a dam who won on debut. His prior two siblings are winners, and this barn has started rolling of late. #2 STYLISH RAGS is by a decent win early sire and is the first foal to race of a winless dam. You’re banking on Wesley Ward here, and his prowess with 2YOs is beyond notable. #7 KRUBERA hails from a capable barn and fetched over 2x his sire’s stud fee at a 2YO in training sale earlier this year. Outside post is a plus as well as his aggressive pilot.

Race 2- 1st #8 GETOFFMYBACK 2ND #4 BUSINESS CYCLE 3RD #2 MISSLE BOMB

#8 GETOFFMYBACK has speed and an ideal outside post from which he can stalk and pounce in search of his third straight win. This hard-knocking veteran meets a soft bunch and horses with his profile have dominated on the newly renovated main track. #4 BUSINESS CYCLE made a meaningful late move over a surface heavily tilted towards speed last time out. Perhaps it was still on his prior trainer’s conditioning, but it makes him a threat today at a price. The optics on #2 MISSLE BOMB are brutal given the precipitous drop off a 10 month layoff, but there’s no denying he has faced better recently and has the speed to get in the game early. He offers nothing but question marks.

Race 3- 1st #6 SURSUM CORDA 2ND #3 PRAIRIE WINGS 3RD #8 SENGEKONTACKET

#6 SURSUM CORDA made a stout rally into a slow pace last time out at Churchill. She now gets more ground with which to work for a barn that has gotten off to a solid start at the meet and a rider who specializes in off the pace trips. #3 PRAIRIE WINGS has the pedigree to take to grass given his dam is a half to Giant’s Causeway. This filly could end up being the one to catch under a pilot who is dangerous with pace on the grass. #8 SENGEKONTACKET is bred to relish extra ground and exits a live maiden claimer from which the winner returned to win a N1X here a week ago.

Race 4- 1st #2 LADY T N T 2ND #5 PACIFIC GALE 3RD #4 LIZA STAR

#2 LADY T N T appears to be the main speed on paper as she exits a salty allowance event on closing day of the Churchill meet. This gal is one start removed from a graded stakes wire job and is certainly quick enough to get control from the outset. #5 PACIFIC GALE is the classiest horse in the race and appeared to regain her form when she returned to NY for a couple of tries at Belmont. She was on the wrong part of the racetrack when last seen at Saratoga in 2019 and figures to get an ideal stalking trip from the outside today. #4 LIZA STAR is in top form but the waters are deeper here than what she has been facing. Expect her to be a thorn in the side of ‘T N T.

Race 5- 1ST #12 INCOMUNICADO 2ND #2 SANDRA’S MINE 3RD #7 LITTLE RED BUTTON

#12 INCOMUNICADO could offer just enough value to get an extra look in here as she returns from a break back in the care of her original trainer. This gal did some running on debut going this trip against a salty bunch and now faces drastically weaker with the shades going on. #2 SANDRA’S MINE was wide last time on a surface where the rail was the place to be. She hails from a barn that has done better at Saratoga after a poor Belmont run and the inside post will enable her to save ground. #7 LITTLE RED BUTTON made a late run in a weak event at this level on debut and now gets back to turf. This is an appreciable upgrade at pilot from the bug boy who rode her on June 18 and that is notable.



Race 6- 1st #8 JEROME AVENUE 2ND #5 CAVARADOSSI 3RD #3 ZEALOUS

#8 JEROME AVENUE is an interesting claim for the razor sharp Kantarmaci outfit. He immediately cuts back in distance while moving up in class, but these days the difference between 14 N3L and 35k N3L are negligible. This is the right trip for him and he ran a hole in the wind last time chasing a hot pace before getting collared late going farther than he prefers. #5 CAVARADOSSI hails from a barn that historically excels moving from turf to dirt. He was a non-factor last time in a tough event for the level and now figures to be in stalk and pounce territory with the pilot on board who last led him to victory. #3 ZEALOUS returns from a layoff in for a tag, which Jimmy Bond had largely protected him from in the past. This oft-injured gelding fits this distance ideally given his two late 2019 efforts at 7 panels, but must stay within contact early.

Race 7- 1st #4 BLANKET OF ROSES 2ND #7 GRAVITAS 3RD #10 DYNADRIVE

#4 BLANKET OF ROSES faced appreciably tougher last time out, including the graded stake placed Fancy Liquor. He made a decent late move from well off the pace and is now back in for a tag. This is the right class level and the pace appears as if it will be quick enough to set up his late bid. #7 GRAVITAS is dropping in class as well and faced a tough customer last time out in the veteran Panama Papers. This gelding is a pace player and has yet to run poorly in 3 tries for a barn that’s long overdue to get rolling. #10 DYNADRIVE is the other Mike Maker entrant in here and offers plenty of appeal himself. He was an unlucky loser two back given his wide trip and the slow pace, and he enters off a solid run at GP off the turf.

Race 8- 1st #7 WAILIN JOSIE 2ND #9 JEWEL OF ARABIA 3RD #8 FLASHPACKINBARBIE

No point giving up on #7 WAILIN JOSIE now given the bullet work since her last start and the colossal jockey change to David Cohen. This gal has ability and has been given few chances to show it by low percentage connections. There’s enough pace in here to set up her late bid and, as always, you’ll get a big price. #9 JEWEL OF ARABIA crushed a maiden field last time out and now faces winners for the meet’s leading trainer. This gal is set up perfectly outside and can stalk and pounce if Joel Rosario so chooses. She is the one to beat. #8 FLASHPACKINBARBIE dropped in for a quarter last time and was victorious without being claimed. She showed tremendous potential on debut and looks to be back in form for a barn that has put multiple live horses on the track at this meet.

Race 9- 1st #4 MISS J MCKAY 2ND #8 ARTIE’S PRINCESS 3RD #9 SHE’S MY TYPE

#4 MISS J MCKAY stands to benefit most from the Lady Shipman given she likely needed the race and simply got moving too late. Trainer Cal Lynch is 6 for his last 17 with starters going 2nd off of 180+ day breaks and the price here will be solid. #8 ARTIE’S PRINCESS goes synthetic to turf for trainer Wesley Ward off a sharp win north of the border. She is drawn favorably on the outside and Irad Ortiz, Jr. usually gets the choice Ward mounts. #9 SHE’S MY TYPE is the next horse you want out of the aforementioned Lady Shipman given that #5 BREDENBURY had a perfect trip stalking the pace and wound up getting the jump. She’s My Type will need to get moving early enough, but it appears as if there’ll be a decent amount of pace in here.

Race 10- 1st #3 LIDO KEY 2ND #11 COREY SCORES 3RD #7 COME STORMING

#3 LIDO KEY just looks too classy for this bunch given her effort last time out against N1X foes and the drop back into the starter allowance ranks. She was badly pace compromised last time at this level and that seems like less of a concern today. #11 COREY SCORES had an uncomfortable trip last time out when narrowly beaten for second at this level and she now goes 2nd off a layoff. If able to draw in from the AEs she is a late player at a square price. #7 COME STORMING set a fast pace last time out when victorious for the first time for trainer Tom Bush. She is capable of getting command in here and has upside given the recent improvement.

SARATOGA MEET STATS: 112-23-19-20 $154.80