Saratoga Two a Day

[Dahoss]

Day 4
I really struggled with this card.

Best bet: Race 9- #2 Night Time
I'm drawing a line through his last. I think they did not want to run early with Jackie's Warrior and took him back and maybe the lack of lasix hurt. He's run very well up here in the past, including losing by the smallest of noses to eventual BC Sprint winner Aloha West last summer. I trust in Rosario to work out a trip, lasix back on and should be a fair price.

Longshot: Race 8- #1 Sky and Sand
This is stab, but I keep coming back to his race two back. He ran huge that day and then was actually the favorite last time against a few in here. As good as he was two back, he was equally as bad last time. It just feels like there is an excuse that we might not know about. I can't imagine he'd be running here if he wasn't ready and might just be able to work out the perfect inside/out trip behind what should be a sharp pace. I'm just hoping his effort two back is the real him and we see that today.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Day 4
I really struggled with this card.

Best bet: Race 9- #2 Night Time
I'm drawing a line through his last. I think they did not want to run early with Jackie's Warrior and took him back and maybe the lack of lasix hurt. He's run very well up here in the past, including losing by the smallest of noses to eventual BC Sprint winner Aloha West last summer. I trust in Rosario to work out a trip, lasix back on and should be a fair price.

Longshot: Race 8- #1 Sky and Sand
This is stab, but I keep coming back to his race two back. He ran huge that day and then was actually the favorite last time against a few in here. As good as he was two back, he was equally as bad last time. It just feels like there is an excuse that we might not know about. I can't imagine he'd be running here if he wasn't ready and might just be able to work out the perfect inside/out trip behind what should be a sharp pace. I'm just hoping his effort two back is the real him and we see that today.

Night Time made the front but tired midstretch. Strange race where a few failed to show up. Sky and Sand ran much better than his prior effort but was no match for Big Invasion who is scary good. Feel like Sky and Sand might have gotten 2nd if he had gotten clear but ultimately settled for 4th.

Meet totals
$32 wagered
$64.80 returned

To me the main track and both turf courses seem to be playing pretty fair, although closers might have a small advantage on the inner. That could very well have been situational though. I'm still waiting for speed to rule the inner like we often see for weeks at a time. Other than that, no real trends IMO. Gaffalione hasn't gotten off to a good start but he and his agent are too good for that to continue.

[Dahoss]

Day 5
Another day I had a hard time deciding which horses to pick.

Best bet: Race 4- #2 Sweet Franny Lu
Almost everyone I respect likes Instinctive in here and I totally get why. She clipped heels early and never really got going after that. her prior races on the grass were strong and she will likely be a deserving favorite. I'm more interested in another horse out of the same race, Sweet Franny Lu. She had the misfortune of running into a horse who was pulling up in front of her, eliminating all chance. Two back, she successfully rated and won going away, showing a new dimension. She's drawn well inside and should get first run. Hopefully Jose Gomez can work out a trip for her.

Longshot: Race 10- #7 Big Woo
Complete guess in here with a horse who was eased in his debut. A few things to consider....he took money that day. Was 5-1 in a field of 9 at Keeneland. Has since been gelded and returns with lasix. Slight drop but nothing crazy. The biggest thing for me is the 46 and change work over the Churchill turf in June. That sticks out to me and Jose Ortiz gets on board. I've taken worst stabs in my life.

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Day 5
Another day I had a hard time deciding which horses to pick.

Best bet: Race 4- #2 Sweet Franny Lu
Almost everyone I respect likes Instinctive in here and I totally get why. She clipped heels early and never really got going after that. her prior races on the grass were strong and she will likely be a deserving favorite. I'm more interested in another horse out of the same race, Sweet Franny Lu. She had the misfortune of running into a horse who was pulling up in front of her, eliminating all chance. Two back, she successfully rated and won going away, showing a new dimension. She's drawn well inside and should get first run. Hopefully Jose Gomez can work out a trip for her.

Longshot: Race 10- #7 Big Woo
Complete guess in here with a horse who was eased in his debut. A few things to consider....he took money that day. Was 5-1 in a field of 9 at Keeneland. Has since been gelded and returns with lasix. Slight drop but nothing crazy. The biggest thing for me is the 46 and change work over the Churchill turf in June. That sticks out to me and Jose Ortiz gets on board. I've taken worst stabs in my life.

I had Sweet Fanny Lu circled as soon as I looked at the card. Still time for you to switch as you’re screwed now!

[moses]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Day 5
Another day I had a hard time deciding which horses to pick.

Best bet: Race 4- #2 Sweet Franny Lu
Almost everyone I respect likes Instinctive in here and I totally get why. She clipped heels early and never really got going after that. her prior races on the grass were strong and she will likely be a deserving favorite. I'm more interested in another horse out of the same race, Sweet Franny Lu. She had the misfortune of running into a horse who was pulling up in front of her, eliminating all chance. Two back, she successfully rated and won going away, showing a new dimension. She's drawn well inside and should get first run. Hopefully Jose Gomez can work out a trip for her.

Longshot: Race 10- #7 Big Woo
Complete guess in here with a horse who was eased in his debut. A few things to consider....he took money that day. Was 5-1 in a field of 9 at Keeneland. Has since been gelded and returns with lasix. Slight drop but nothing crazy. The biggest thing for me is the 46 and change work over the Churchill turf in June. That sticks out to me and Jose Ortiz gets on board. I've taken worst stabs in my life.

I wasn't crazy about this card. A few horses in the 4/1 to 8/1 range but I usually like to try to make a case for bigger shots than that and didn't really see many. And of course my "value" horse just went off at 7/2, looked slow out of the gate, and never had a chance to compete for the win. So already off to a good start.

I'm going to take a closer look at your longshot though. Didn't really give that horse much thought when I looked over the race.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Day 5
Another day I had a hard time deciding which horses to pick.

Best bet: Race 4- #2 Sweet Franny Lu
Almost everyone I respect likes Instinctive in here and I totally get why. She clipped heels early and never really got going after that. her prior races on the grass were strong and she will likely be a deserving favorite. I'm more interested in another horse out of the same race, Sweet Franny Lu. She had the misfortune of running into a horse who was pulling up in front of her, eliminating all chance. Two back, she successfully rated and won going away, showing a new dimension. She's drawn well inside and should get first run. Hopefully Jose Gomez can work out a trip for her.

Longshot: Race 10- #7 Big Woo
Complete guess in here with a horse who was eased in his debut. A few things to consider....he took money that day. Was 5-1 in a field of 9 at Keeneland. Has since been gelded and returns with lasix. Slight drop but nothing crazy. The biggest thing for me is the 46 and change work over the Churchill turf in June. That sticks out to me and Jose Ortiz gets on board. I've taken worst stabs in my life.

Weird day. Sweet Franny Lu was shuffled back, 4 riders yanked their mounts back, Jose Gomez made a silly middle move and the horse that was left alone went wire to wire. Fun stuff.

Big Woo was 15-1 ML, somehow went off at 2-1 and finished 7th. The 2-1 ML favorite somehow went off at 5-1 and wired the field.

Meet totals
$40 wagered
$64.80 returned

[Dahoss]

Day 6
Best bet: Race 7 #4 It's a Gamble
Kelly Breen spent the better part of two years trying to make this one a router and in his defense he's had some success. But, he's 2 for 2 sprinting, including winning his debut here, after a slow break. If you watch a replay of his two sprint races, you can see he his run really seems amplified the shorter he goes. Monster rider switch. Won't be the 6-1 ML he was but should still be in the 3-4 to 1 range

Longshot: Race 3- #2 Hatch
He's not going to be 12-1 because of the scratch but might still be 6-7 to 1. First off the claim by Mike Maker, goes to turf, dam was a stakes winner on turf and of the other horses who would you want to bet in here? Just feel like this one at least has some upside whereas we know what the others can do.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Day 6
Best bet: Race 7 #4 It's a Gamble
Kelly Breen spent the better part of two years trying to make this one a router and in his defense he's had some success. But, he's 2 for 2 sprinting, including winning his debut here, after a slow break. If you watch a replay of his two sprint races, you can see he his run really seems amplified the shorter he goes. Monster rider switch. Won't be the 6-1 ML he was but should still be in the 3-4 to 1 range

Longshot: Race 3- #2 Hatch
He's not going to be 12-1 because of the scratch but might still be 6-7 to 1. First off the claim by Mike Maker, goes to turf, dam was a stakes winner on turf and of the other horses who would you want to bet in here? Just feel like this one at least has some upside whereas we know what the others can do.

So now the 3rd is off the turf. Sucks for people's pick 5's. Wish they would have either made that decision earlier or postponed the 1st 10-15 minutes so people could make adjustments. I like Hatch on the main as well, but he will probably be favored. I'll switch my Longshot to Race 8- #7 Mia Bea Star. Huge rider change and this race feels like one where you want to take a shot against the favorites.

[moses]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Day 6
Best bet: Race 7 #4 It's a Gamble
Kelly Breen spent the better part of two years trying to make this one a router and in his defense he's had some success. But, he's 2 for 2 sprinting, including winning his debut here, after a slow break. If you watch a replay of his two sprint races, you can see he his run really seems amplified the shorter he goes. Monster rider switch. Won't be the 6-1 ML he was but should still be in the 3-4 to 1 range

Longshot: Race 3- #2 Hatch
He's not going to be 12-1 because of the scratch but might still be 6-7 to 1. First off the claim by Mike Maker, goes to turf, dam was a stakes winner on turf and of the other horses who would you want to bet in here? Just feel like this one at least has some upside whereas we know what the others can do.

I believe Race 3 is off the turf. Which is weird since the MTOs appear to be scratched.

[moses]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

So now the 3rd is off the turf. Sucks for people's pick 5's. Wish they would have either made that decision earlier or postponed the 1st 10-15 minutes so people could make adjustments. I like Hatch on the main as well, but he will probably be favored. I'll switch my Longshot to Race 8- #7 Mia Bea Star. Huge rider change and this race feels like one where you want to take a shot against the favorites.

Whoops. Didn't realize that you saw this already. Definitely would have been nice to have more notice.

[jms62]

So now it is an ALL Race even though by RULE it shouldn't be. Yeah it sucked that they pulled it off late and didn't give anyone a chance but arbitrarily overriding an existing Rule is worse IMO. I didn't play the early P5 so I had no skin in the game.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by jms62

So now it is an ALL Race even though by RULE it shouldn't be. Yeah it sucked that they pulled it off late and didn't give anyone a chance but arbitrarily overriding an existing Rule is worse IMO. I didn't play the early P5 so I had no skin in the game.

It's a disaster. I think making it an all is probably the right thing, but agree the rule is the rule. You can't just decide to override the rule when you want.

Everything the stewards are involved in is a mess.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

It's a disaster. I think making it an all is probably the right thing, but agree the rule is the rule. You can't just decide to override the rule when you want.

Everything the stewards are involved in is a mess.

At the point they took it off they could have waited 10 minutes to announce it and we don't have this rules issue. Isn't there possible repercussions from the gaming commission on this? Those that had the winner and hit the P5 really have a right to be PO'd. I think this decision was made to placate the masses complaining on Social Media about the late surface change and they didn't take a breath and think it through.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by jms62

At the point they took it off they could have waited 10 minutes to announce it and we don't have this rules issue. Isn't there possible repercussions from the gaming commission on this? Those that had the winner and hit the P5 really have a right to be PO'd. I think this decision was made to placate the masses complaining on Social Media about the late surface change and they didn't take a breath and think it through.

Obviously I agree it was handled poorly from the beginning.

[Alabama Stakes]

“ Repole’s daughter is the most annoying kid in racing since Baffert’s brat” -

“ Morley should just change his name to Servis or Navarro at this point”


Big man talking smack about an 8 year old girl.

You know that your little buddy works with Morley’s spouse every day right ?

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

“ Repole’s daughter is the most annoying kid in racing since Baffert’s brat” -

“ Morley should just change his name to Servis or Navarro at this point”


Big man talking smack about an 8 year old girl.

You know that your little buddy works with Morley’s spouse every day right ?

Looks like I'm under your skin, huh?

Good.

I saw a few of your pictures on Twitter Dan. Wasn't aware that you had a dog and a cat.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Day 6
Best bet: Race 7 #4 It's a Gamble
Kelly Breen spent the better part of two years trying to make this one a router and in his defense he's had some success. But, he's 2 for 2 sprinting, including winning his debut here, after a slow break. If you watch a replay of his two sprint races, you can see he his run really seems amplified the shorter he goes. Monster rider switch. Won't be the 6-1 ML he was but should still be in the 3-4 to 1 range

Longshot: Race 3- #2 Hatch
He's not going to be 12-1 because of the scratch but might still be 6-7 to 1. First off the claim by Mike Maker, goes to turf, dam was a stakes winner on turf and of the other horses who would you want to bet in here? Just feel like this one at least has some upside whereas we know what the others can do.

Originally Posted by Dahoss

So now the 3rd is off the turf. Sucks for people's pick 5's. Wish they would have either made that decision earlier or postponed the 1st 10-15 minutes so people could make adjustments. I like Hatch on the main as well, but he will probably be favored. I'll switch my Longshot to Race 8- #7 Mia Bea Star. Huge rider change and this race feels like one where you want to take a shot against the favorites.

It's a Gamble was AWFUL. Mia Bea Star got up for 2nd, paying $5.80 to place.

Meet totals
$48 wagered
$70.60 returned

[Dahoss]

Day 7

Best bet: Race 8- #6 Sassy Melissa
Aragona is the best ML maker in the game but I think the odds on Kokopelli and Sassy melissa are going to be much closer than he does. She's run well here in past, should get plenty of pace to run at and has seemingly been working well. Gets first run on Kokopelli

Longshot: Race 7- #8 Fighter in the Win
Keepmeinmind should win here but I'm not crazy about taking 3/5 on a horse who is 1 for 11 lifetime. He's kept good company and if he returns in same form wins but I wanted to take a stab with a horse who I think might appreciate dirt. It's telling to me at least Chad Brown puts Fighter in the Win on dirt. He must be working well over it. Dam won a dirt route in her debut and I think this one is well meant.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Day 7

Best bet: Race 8- #6 Sassy Melissa
Aragona is the best ML maker in the game but I think the odds on Kokopelli and Sassy melissa are going to be much closer than he does. She's run well here in past, should get plenty of pace to run at and has seemingly been working well. Gets first run on Kokopelli

Longshot: Race 7- #8 Fighter in the Win
Keepmeinmind should win here but I'm not crazy about taking 3/5 on a horse who is 1 for 11 lifetime. He's kept good company and if he returns in same form wins but I wanted to take a stab with a horse who I think might appreciate dirt. It's telling to me at least Chad Brown puts Fighter in the Win on dirt. He must be working well over it. Dam won a dirt route in her debut and I think this one is well meant.

I think both picks are still running.

Meet totals
$56 wagered
$70.60 returned

[Dahoss]

Day 8
For a Saturday at Saratoga I thought this card was pretty blah. Treading lightly.

Best bet: Race 3- #3 Jane Grey
Was a sharp debut winner here 2 summers ago as a 2 year old. Missed about 22 months and came back last time at Belmont finishing 2nd behind a horse who ran pretty blah here the other day. But, there is definitely some talent here and the fact she's back relatively soon off the long break is a plus. I think she sits a good trip behind the speed and wins well in here.

Longshot: Race 10- #2 Miss J McKay
Not really a longshot per se, but more of a best value kind of play. I think she'll be 4th choice in here which should translate to her ML range. She was very good 2 back. Last time she didn't have the smoothest of journeys and I think she projects a great trip in here behind the abundance of speed. I expect the perfect inside/out from Irad and hopefully she's up in time