Rich Strike in the Belmont

[moses]

So I saw something recently that projected Rich Strike as the third choice in the Belmont behind Mo Donegal and We The People.

Is he destined to be an overlay in this race? Everyone thinks the Derby was a fluke. But does he really have more question marks than those two — Mo Donegal ran the final 1/4 in the Kentucky Derby in 25.56 seconds, marginally better than Epicenter, Zandon, and Simplification. Rich Strike ran it in 24.83 seconds. How is Mo Donegal going to turn the tables on him? We know he benefited greatly from the pace in the Wood. What was his excuse for the Derby being outrun by Rich Strike?

As far as We The People, his best race was on a muddy track around one turn. And while he may have a pace advantage, I’m not sure how fast he really he is. He’s faster than Mo Donegal and Rich Strike. But he may not get the easy lead that everyone assumes. He didn’t in the Arkansas Derby and that race didn’t really have any super fast horses.

Obviously we’ve got to wait to see the official field but he may offer some solid value…if you believe in him.

[blackthroatedwind]

He won't be an overlay. Maybe the ones you mentioned will be underlays:-)

Of course, you're right about Mo Donegal based on the Derby, though Rich Strike had a slightly better trip. But, Mo Donegal has a far better overall resume, and somehow Todd Pletcher feels like a safer play than Eric Reed. I don't mean that as a knock, but among his many achievements, his level of success with his Belmont Stakes runners ( and not just ones that won ) speaks for itself.

Rich Strike took advantage of a huge pace meltdown. Those kinds of winners are rarely good bet backs in their next start. Until we see the field, and get to look at them, it's good to keep and open mind, but given he won the Derby at 80:1, and really should have been 200:1, mathematically he sort of can't be an overlay....if that makes sense.

[moses]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

He won't be an overlay. Maybe the ones you mentioned will be underlays:-)

Of course, you're right about Mo Donegal based on the Derby, though Rich Strike had a slightly better trip. But, Mo Donegal has a far better overall resume, and somehow Todd Pletcher feels like a safer play than Eric Reed. I don't mean that as a knock, but among his many achievements, his level of success with his Belmont Stakes runners ( and not just ones that won ) speaks for itself.

Rich Strike took advantage of a huge pace meltdown. Those kinds of winners are rarely good bet backs in their next start. Until we see the field, and get to look at them, it's good to keep and open mind, but given he won the Derby at 80:1, and really should have been 200:1, mathematically he sort of can't be an overlay....if that makes sense.

Fair enough. I’m anxious to see the official field.

I do think that Rich Strike is likely to run well. I posted these thoughts because I’m seeing a lot of people jump on We The People and think that may be premature.

But I’m definitely trying to keep an open mind. I just hope the Fenwick bettors from May 21st show up.