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#21
05-29-2007, 01:47 PM
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#22
05-29-2007, 01:54 PM
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Marcus seems very confident about him, and from a trainer that doesn't go overboard with his runners, that is interesting. He is far more confident than he was with Sir Percy, and if anything, this years race looks even weaker. Do you think we are starting to see the results of breeding for speed?
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#23
05-29-2007, 01:58 PM
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theres certainly alot of horses that wont stay or are doubtful to stay the trip. I wouldnt be too knowledgeable about breeding.. I did fancy Archipenko but seeing that he is a late May foal (May 30th) surely, thats not a good sign.
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  #Grand
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#24
05-29-2007, 02:28 PM
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Acapulco - Strong Stayer Admiralofthefleet - non stayer Anton Chekhov - Strong stayer Aqaleem - Likely stayer Arabian Gulf - Likely stayer Archipenko - Doubtful stayer Authorized - Likely stayer Eagle Mountain - Should stay, but not certain Eastern Anthem - Should stay Kid Mambo - Non Stayer Leander - Likely stayer Lucarno - Should stay (but not certain about this one) Mahler - Strong Stayer Petara Bay - Doubtful stayer Regime - Strong Stayer Salford Mill - Doubtful Stayer Soldier Of Fortune - Strong Stayer Strategic Prince - Should stay Yellowstone - Non Stayer This is through dosage index of both the sire and dam sire. For what it's worth, i don't think it matters about the foaling time. I will have a look at the stats though. Afraid to say it doesn't look Admiralofthefleet will make the gig, he is 50's on Betfair now
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#25
05-29-2007, 02:42 PM
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Foaling months of previous 10 Derby winners:
1996; Shaamit (February) 1997; Benny The Dip (January) 1998; High Rise (May) 1999; Oath (April) 2000; Sinndar (february) 2001; Galileo (march (almost april)) 2002; High Chaparral (March) 2003; Kris Kin (March) 2004; North Light (March) 2005; Motivator (February) 2006; Sir Percy (January) Maybe you're right, Brockguy. I never imagined it would matter much but looking at this, maybe it does. March seems to be the best month for foaling a derby winner........ so i guess i won't be winning the Derby.
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#26
05-29-2007, 02:43 PM
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Thanks for that list.. Immediately I thought Eagle Mountain wont stay (he reminds me alot of Oratorio). his dam has produced some stayers like Sulk but how many Rocks will stay 12f?? That Gosden horse is certainly interesting to say the least...
Regarding foaling date, I know the Racingpost had a write up about it about the foaling dates of horses in the Guineas.. Im sure it is less relevant for the Derby but in the back of my mind, Ill be thinking that Archipenko has just really turned 3 by Derby time..
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#Grand
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#27
05-29-2007, 02:47 PM
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March foaled horses in this years derby, are:
Aqaleem and Salford Mill
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#28
05-29-2007, 02:50 PM
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I agree with you though, i think he will be this years Oratorio, do we get on for the Eclipse now? Slightly off topic, but did you see the full sister to Giant's Causeway at the weekend? How good did she look finishing 2nd in a hot listed race over five first time out when it looked like she will be tailed off at half way! Did we see the 1000 guineas winner of next year? I'm more than hopeful
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#29
05-29-2007, 02:56 PM
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she was impressive enough, both the winner (who is for sale) and her looked very good and the time was 58 and change so thats very good for the Curragh. It was also good considering none of O'Brien's other juveniles looked decent...
If Admiral doesnt go, Im struggling to find a horse I like that'll beat Authorized....
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#Grand
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#30
05-29-2007, 03:03 PM
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 Seriously, i don't fancy him. The form of his RP Trophy took another huge knock this evening with Charlie Farnsbarns getting beaten in a weak race at odds of 2/5
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#31
05-29-2007, 03:10 PM
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yeah saw that.. it was an awful bet.. the Sinndar one looked very very workmanlike when winning the Lingfield race (takes after his dad!) but does anyone decent win the lingfield trial anymore?? some of the previous winners werent much..
if its soft ground, I might be interested in Soldier Of Fortune.. His form does look strong, esp if Passage walks in the Oaks..
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#Grand
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#32
05-29-2007, 03:19 PM
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What i liked about the performance was that it was off the back of the Tregoning yard being 'shut down' after many of the horses were sick. He was entitled to need that run much more than most and he did it well under those circumstances. I wouldn't read much into Hearthstead Maison getting beaten next time, Lucarno is a very nice horse and the drop back in trip/slow gallop really wouldn't have helped the Mark Johnston horse.
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#34
05-29-2007, 03:44 PM
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As each day passes i get more confident about Aqaleem, everyone else is worried about the ground and whether their Derby hope will stay, whereas i'm quite relaxed as i think this lad will go on any ground, he has prived himself on quicker ground, and his pedigree suggests he will be just as at home on soft. I also know he will handle Epsom. My only concern is if he is quick enough/has a turn of foot, so in a way i hope it does stay on the soft side, if that does turn out to be an issue with him.
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#35
05-31-2007, 10:42 AM
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no withdrawls so 19 set for the Derby.. O'Brien still has 8 in. One could go on and on discussing the merits of having 8 in, but it looks to me as if they all deserve a spot.. it'll be interesting to see how things set up during the race. I know Murtagh always likes to be handy or up front in the Derby, but I cant see Eagle Mountain staying..
No. Form Horse Age Wt Trainer Jockey OR NagMe 1 (5) 12 Acapulco (IRE) 28 3 9-0 A P O'Brien F M Berry 2 (15) 7131-71 Admiralofthefleet (USA) 22 3 9-0 A P O'Brien J A Heffernan 115 3 (4) 31-51 Anton Chekhov 25 3 9-0 A P O'Brien D P McDonogh 108 4 (2) 32-1 Aqaleem 21 3 9-0 M P Tregoning R Hills 112 5 (1) 7-12 Arabian Gulf 23 3 9-0 Sir Michael Stoute R Hughes 106 6 (10) 021-1 Archipenko (USA) 20 3 9-0 A P O'Brien M J Kinane 112 7 (14) 31-1 Authorized (IRE) 16 3 9-0 P W Chapple-Hyam L Dettori 116 8 (8) 12214-5 Eagle Mountain 28 3 9-0 A P O'Brien J Murtagh 116 9 (13) 1-32 Eastern Anthem (IRE) 9 3 9-0 Saeed bin Suroor K McEvoy 101 10 (19) 4512-23 Kid Mambo (USA) 21 3 9-0 T G Mills J Fanning 104 11 (3) 42 Leander 27 3 9-0 B R Johnson M Gallagher 12 (17) 211 Lucarno (USA) 7 3 9-0 J H M Gosden S Drowne 113 13 (6) 911 Mahler 27 3 9-0 A P O'Brien P J Smullen 14 (12) 010-17 Petara Bay (IRE) 35 3 9-0 T G Mills Dane O'Neill 105 15 (7) 4127-1 Regime (IRE) 35 3 9-0 M L W Bell Martin Dwyer 110 16 (11) 2-121 Salford Mill (IRE) 28 3 9-0 D R C Elsworth T E Durcan 105 17 (9) 212-11 Soldier of Fortune (IRE) 23 3 9-0 A P O'Brien W M Lordan 111 18 (18) 15113-8 Strategic Prince 28 3 9-0 P F I Cole E Ahern 117 19 (16) 173-502 Yellowstone (IRE) 20 3 9-0 A P O'Brien C O'Donoghue 11
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#Grand
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#36
06-01-2007, 09:04 AM
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http://www.skysports.com/skysports/a...268558,00.html I'm not watching this race so a visual would be appreciated. Thanks.
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#37
06-01-2007, 09:07 AM
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Awwwww, i know how you feel though  Are you going to watch the coronation? it's off in about 15mins
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#38
06-01-2007, 09:11 AM
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I'll read all about Maraahel winning a bit later. COME HOME SAFE EVERYONE PLEASE. Two races i don't know if i ever want to watch again and one is the Derby.
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#39
06-01-2007, 09:13 AM
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stay home and watch the racing. I love your confidence
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#40
06-01-2007, 09:59 AM
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Oops, just had a look at his pedigree. Yikes. Inbred to Nureyev and full sister Special, pretty closely, too. Lots of miler-types, including his mum (at least she's a good class SW) and big sister Limit. Full brother broke his maiden at 10f in Ireland (g/f), best he ever did. 12f could be a stretch, especially on softish ground. He'll need it to dry up a bit before tomorrow. Last edited by Pedigree Ann : 06-01-2007 at 10:26 AM.
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