Glorious Goodwood

[my miss storm cat]

Card for tomorrow...

http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/m...014/fast-cards

Kinda strange to see Wigmore Hall listed as the longest shot on the board (the 13:55).

Personally I can't wait for Thursday and Friday so will simply wish Kingman the best of luck for tomorrow (odds won't be worth playing) and leave it at that.

Anyone playing?

[Kitan]

Didn't have a great deal of time to look at Tuesday's card so I spent most of it on the two two year old races where I think there might be value.

Race 2:
#5 Fast Act showed promise on debut and confirmed that with a good win two back. Was no match for Tiggy Wiggy last time but I don't think anything else in here would have done much better. Around 14/1 with most bookmakers and that is fantastic value.
#1 Beacon is obviously the one to beat, but I'm not convinced by what he's beaten so far and odds-on is not worth it.
#3 Cotai Glory is finally showing his ability and the drop down back to 5f will suit.
#8 Spirit of Xian is the least heralded of the three Hannon runners but could sneak a good race at around 20/1. On paper this filly didn't run a step last out in France, but the race wasn't that bad as speed heavily dominated on a wet track. The return to 5f will help, and hopefully the blinkers do too.

Think a box here will suit while also using the 5 as a key.

Race 5: These baby maidens in the UK are always tough as there is limited data available, but I could see some prices coming in here.
#8 Koptoon has a good 2yo pedigree and Dascombe can get them ready early. Will be at least double digits.
#10 Misleading is another with a good young pedigree and is well regarded by a top outfit. Buick didn't give much away in his blog, but he is taking money with the bookies.
#14 Sirdaab was the top priced City Zip yearling at the Keeneland September sales, and his second dam did win a 5f turf sprint. Average amount of interest in the betting at around 14/1.
I'll use those on top with the following underneath:
#1 Acaster Malbis: Hughes lands on this of the three Hannon runners which signals something, but he may want further distance.
#4 Dark Profit is another who is well regarded and showed much improvement last out. Very dangerous if he can step forward again.
#11 Moodrick may want further than the 6f but I just couldn't not use him.
#12 Mutafarrej is getting a suspicious amount of talk and money, which is why I'll use him because I can't off that form.
#15 Winstanley is one of those that I don't like but I don't want to get beaten by either.

8, 10, 14 with 1, 4, 11, 12, 15 used underneath.


Also---Kingman runs on Wednesday.

[my miss storm cat]

Nice call with Misleading and yes, thank you for the correction re Kingman!

[Kitan]

Thanks. Would have been nice if the 4 held second or if the 8 kept on though.

I played overnight (on TAB) because I wasn't going to be up early. Just seeing that Cotai Glory was 2-1 in the North American commingled pools, and 9-2 on the TAB. At least the 5 held second and spiced up the exotics.

[Kitan]

Wednesday

Race 1:
I didn't really look at this race too much, but it caught my eye that #5 Lion Beacon has a good record over this course which is always important. Worth a couple of dollars at at least 15-1.

Race 2:
#2 Cloudscape has a huge kick in him, and unfortunately last time he was unleashed too late as he was hemmed in for most of the straight. Was a very impressive run on replay. If he gets clear run I can see him bursting away. Good price at 5-1 or upwards.
#8 Windshear has never been worse than second in six starts, and that consistency gives him value at a few points under 10-1.
#3 Observational is an improving sort who beat a decent horse in Marzocco last out on this course. Just a little scared by the fact that Doyle stays on #6, whose form line I've never really liked. Also hasn't run since May 23rd.
I think that #7 Somewhat is a very beatable potential favourite here as there is other pace for him to deal with and he was well beaten by #2 in the Tercentenary. Ran a blinder at 100-1 last time, but he needs to prove he can do it again.

Kingman to beat Toronado in Race 3. No value there...

#1 Ahlan Emarati, #5 Highland Reel, and #8 Tupi are the top three in the betting in Race 4 and I can easily see them filling the first three places.

Race 5 is another race where I can see the top choices in the Market, #4 Hundi and #12 Shahah, taking the top spots. #1 and #13 are interesting, but more for the future as they should want further.

Race 6:
William Buick has written a few good words in his blog about #5 Water Hole and he is currently the top choice in the wagering. I think 9f might test his stamina but the expensive weanling purchase rates a big chance.
#15 Alquimia and #16 Hedge End both get in with 108 lbs after the apprentice claims and that is a definite boost to their upset chances at nearly 20-1 each.

Race 7:
Similar to Race 1 in the sense that #19 Bravo Echo's record at Goodwood caught my eye and he's up around 25-1.
#20 Little Shambles is 2 for 2 at the distance on dry tracks, albeit both at Catterick, and alternates good/bad performances. Form says it should be good today.

[Kitan]

#5 faded easily in the 1st.
#2 hung big time in the 2nd.
Was straightforward in the 3rd. Boy Kingman is a good horse.
1st and 2nd in the 4th.
2nd and 3rd in the 5th.
#5 was SCR, but #16 came 2nd at a good price in the 6th.
#19 was SCR in the 7th.

[my miss storm cat]

Oh Kingman... what a horse he is.

Replay for anyone who missed it...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NN-9yr2jCRE

Finally have a little time to look at tomorrows card and wow the Goodwood Cup is a really nice betting race.

Kinda like Astronereus in the first. I'm going to wait to see what the odds look like cause (I'm surprised that) he is listed as the 2nd choice...

R2, Richmond Stakes - Moonraker / Jungle Cat

R3... the Goodwood Cup... Huge fan of a few in here BUT I'm thinking Angel Gabrial steps up though and shows he belongs. Will use Brown Panther, Estimate and Forgotten Voice underneath.

R4, the Lillie Langtry... boxing Talent, Stella Bellissima and Nymphea.

Maiden Fillies...... I have no idea why World Fair keeps leaping out at me. I think I will do a nonsensical and very small win bet.

R6, Tatler - 16/1 on Day of Conquest? Yes please. Will use Passing Star, Shot in the Sun and Nakuti underneath.

R7 - pass

Subject to change (!)

http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/m...014/fast-cards

[Kitan]

Thursday

Race 1:
Very tough race. #1 Roseburg is clearly a good colt but this is tougher and he is giving a lot of weight. #10 Insaany is one that I liked but not happy to see jocks land elsewhere. #11 Donny Rover has a chance but does not have a great strike rate. Many more with chances.
I'm going to take a shot with #14 Collaboration. Kept in good company and was reasonably bet down but failed to fire in the Edinburgh Cup. Gets in with a senior jockey at a low weight, and if he can bounce back he can spring a surprise at 12/1.

Race 2:
#1 Ivawood looks a good thing but is absolutely no value at odds-on. Will play him with the following two colts.
#4 Fox Trotter comes from a decent family and was very impressive on debut. Jimmy Fortune gets aboard at double digit odds.
#6 Louie De Palma is two for two and can progress again at around 20/1.
Note that #3 finished 11 lengths clear of #5 in their debuts, and then compare that to the odds board.

Race 3:
Great renewal of the Goodwood Cup. I'll probably just be watching, and although Moore has really talked up Estimate's chances, Angel Gabrial has an upset chance if he continues his superb form.

Race 4:
#3 Missunited is the key here but is far from a lock.
This is the easiest field #5 Talent has faced in some while, and she rates a big chance.
#6 Waila will like the firm going and can run a good one again.
#9 Honor Bound is one I originally liked as I think she will run back to her best with the hood completely out of the picture, but the 14f scares me a tad.
#10 Stella Bellissima is clearly one for the future, but this may come too soon.

Race 5:
Can't be extremely confident on anything here, and this is where the value usually kicks in.
#7 Perfect Orange is the one I'm taking a flyer on here. Has a brother who has kept good company this season as a 3yo so there is some potential class there. Should be a big price.
#4 Kodiva is very well regarded, and although he's by Kodiac, I think based on his dam's side 7f may be a bit too sharp.

Race 6:
Wide-open event sees #9 Royal Seal the 5-1 favourite. Two for two on a firm 7f, and doesn't run back in six days as she did last time. Moore and Stoute always dangerous.
#2 Jallota is currently the biggest outsider, but his form last year under Channon is very good, and in his only turf start in Dubai with de Kock he ran second. Never easy to win first up from Dubai, but he is being well overlooked here.
#13 Secret Hint can improve off the maiden score and will be a threat under the lightweight.

I'll put aside Race 7 as it is an apprentice handicap.

[Pants II]

Goodwood 5
$10 wp 9

[Pants II]

Originally Posted by Pants II

Goodwood 5
$10 wp 9

$39

Goodwood 6
$10 wp 6

[Pants II]

Originally Posted by Pants II

$39

Goodwood 6
$10 wp 6

3rd $24

[my miss storm cat]

Glad you both his a few things... I absolutely sucked.

Only doing a couple of win bets tomorrow... have not yet looked at the first (nice little field) but going with Heaven's Guest in the Mile (r3), Tropics in the King George (r4 and how cool is that that Kingsgate Native is still running?) and Art of War in the final.

Good luck.

[Pants II]

Race 4
$1 ex box 5,6,7
$10 wp 6

[Pants II]

7-some shi.thead mush-5-6

It's turning into a running joke at this point.

[my miss storm cat]

I suck worse here than at Saratoga...