Favorites get murdered in post draw - Page 3

RockHardTen1985 · #41 11-03-2009, 05:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35

I just threw up in my mouth.

Stop, we both know you did not do that.
I dont really like her, Im just saying. Im only playing pick 3's, so I will use her with a few others.

tiznowthegreat · #42 11-03-2009, 06:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brockguy

no worries for Goldi.. I told you not to use Mastercraftsman.. I doubt he even gets placed in the mile!!

Would be curious for you to elaborate on your opinion on Mastercraftsman. He looks to completely outclass this field.

Sightseek · #43 11-03-2009, 06:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Visit is making me think INTERCONTINENTAL

I think Juddmonte is more likely to see victory with Midday.

brockguy · #44 11-03-2009, 06:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tiznowthegreat

Would be curious for you to elaborate on your opinion on Mastercraftsman. He looks to completely outclass this field.

I think he is now too slow for a mile. While his early wins looks alright, his Irish 2000 Guineas win was in bottomless ground so it put such an emphasis on stamina rather than speed.

His best trip IMO is 10f. The usual rule of thumb for a turfer that I follow is that you want them running on the synthetics or dirt over a trip just further than their optimal (think Ravens Pass, Henrythenavigator, Giants Causeway etc)

He is a grinder to me, I can see him running the exact same type of race as Duke Of Marmalade (who was IMO, also dropping down from his optimal trip in the Classic last year). I will avoid him completely..

RockHardTen1985 · #45 11-03-2009, 06:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brockguy

I think he is now too slow for a mile. While his early wins looks alright, his Irish 2000 Guineas win was in bottomless ground so it put such an emphasis on stamina rather than speed.

His best trip IMO is 10f. The usual rule of thumb for a turfer that I follow is that you want them running on the synthetics or dirt over a trip just further than their optimal (think Ravens Pass, Henrythenavigator, Giants Causeway etc)

He is a grinder to me, I can see him running the exact same type of race as Duke Of Marmalade (who was IMO, also dropping down from his optimal trip in the Classic last year). I will avoid him completely..

Furthest Land at 20-1 is CRAZY.

Thunder Gulch · #46 11-03-2009, 06:58 PM

The rail has an impact value well over 1.00 in almost every race except the turf sprints. I don't know why everyone thinks being there is a bad thing. Pace scenarios aside, that's the place to be. It was just a couple years back when half the winners were on the rail.

On the other hand, Goldlikova and Looking at Lucky are seriously compromised and will have to be much the best- which they may be.

RockHardTen1985 · #47 11-03-2009, 07:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

The rail has an impact value well over 1.00 in almost every race except the turf sprints. I don't know why everyone thinks being there is a bad thing. Pace scenarios aside, that's the place to be. It was just a couple years back when half the winners were on the rail.

On the other hand, Goldlikova and Looking at Lucky are seriously compromised and will have to be much the best- which they may be.

I think Goldikova is in serious TROUBLE.

brockguy · #48 11-03-2009, 07:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

I think Goldikova is in serious TROUBLE.

randallscott35 · #49 11-03-2009, 07:13 PM

Goldikova won't have a problem with her style. If she can drop back I don't see it making a difference. I do think the field is better this time though.

GBBob · #50 11-03-2009, 07:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brockguy

Wheatabix

philcski · #51 11-03-2009, 07:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

The 8 has a giant shot in the Juvy...

DUDE...

take a break. Take a drink of water, or beer, or Jack. you are going wayyy too fast. You've got 4.5 days until the gates open for this race. How about formulating some thoughts, weighing them in your mind, and making a better decision Friday night or Saturday morning??? There is no reason to have a final opinion at this point.

VOL JACK · #52 11-03-2009, 07:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Furthest Land at 20-1 is CRAZY.

Please dont F this play up for me.

tiznowthegreat · #53 11-03-2009, 07:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brockguy

I think he is now too slow for a mile. While his early wins looks alright, his Irish 2000 Guineas win was in bottomless ground so it put such an emphasis on stamina rather than speed.

His best trip IMO is 10f. The usual rule of thumb for a turfer that I follow is that you want them running on the synthetics or dirt over a trip just further than their optimal (think Ravens Pass, Henrythenavigator, Giants Causeway etc)

He is a grinder to me, I can see him running the exact same type of race as Duke Of Marmalade (who was IMO, also dropping down from his optimal trip in the Classic last year). I will avoid him completely..

I would agree that a mile might not be his best trip but I don't think against these that he has to be at his best trip. Duke of Marmalade last year had been facing slightly better than what he faced in last years classic. I think Mastercraftsmen is facing MUCH worse than what he has been facing and what he beat earlier this year in a couple G1 at a mile. He probably is better at longer than a mile, but I do think he is good enough at a mile to handle these. I guess my main thought is that it seems like he doesn't have to be at his best trip to beat these.