Alphie's Bet

[golfer]

From yesterday's 6th at Hollywood Park. I have no idea if this horse will turn out to be anything special, but he showed a pretty strong late kick. Perhaps he needs to go farther than 6 furlongs, but it sure couldn't have hurt had Mike Smith gotten him moving a bit sooner. Watch the replay, and decide for yourself.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by golfer

From yesterday's 6th at Hollywood Park. I have no idea if this horse will turn out to be anything special, but he showed a pretty strong late kick. Perhaps he needs to go farther than 6 furlongs, but it sure couldn't have hurt had Mike Smith gotten him moving a bit sooner. Watch the replay, and decide for yourself.

I bet this horse yesterday, I thought the rider was on an all out drive from the 3/8ths pole after being outrun early, looked really non threatening before this massive late rush. Maybe blinkers, maybe going long, maybe not that good but I am not sure how much more a speedy gate rider like Smith could have done with a horse with zero early speed.

[golfer]

Entered Saturday going 1 1/16 at Santa Anita, in the Cal Breeders Championship Stakes???

Smith jumps off, connections must think pretty highly of this maiden, or they are just nuts.

I re-watched the replay a while back, really hard to tell what to make of this horse, the head-on shows nothing, but the pan shows him FLYING at the end. We'll see Saturday.

[golfer]

finished 2nd in the Stakes race yesterday... not bad for his 3rd lifetime start. Unfortunately, I needed him to WIN

[10 pnt move up]

I am going to bet against this horse next time in a maiden, classic look of a hanger to me.

[golfer]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

I am going to bet against this horse next time in a maiden, classic look of a hanger to me.

Obviously, next out in a maiden special, he won't be 14-1, more likely fairly big favorite, and there is usually nothing wrong with trying to beat the favorite. You may be right about him being a hanger, but he was last at the top of the stretch in a 10 horse stakes race, and passed all but one, and that one got a perfect trip, and was the fastest going in. So, I will need more evidence one way or the other to draw a conclusion.

[golfer]

Will try to break his maiden tomorrow, going 1 mile on the turf. Certainly seems bred for it, adds blinkers, 5-2 ML.

[Scav]

Cmon people...this guy handed out even money for all you, 110% return.

WINNA WINNA!

[2Hot4TV]

Originally Posted by Scav

Cmon people...this guy handed out even money for all you, 110% return.

WINNA WINNA!

I used this horse in showvivor to not get trapped in the short field syndrom.

[my miss storm cat]

Hope you played him today, golfer.

[Fulla Sheets]

Connections pointing to Belmont Stakes

http://drf.com/news/article/112468.html

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Cardus

What was his TG line coming into the race, and what number do you project that he earned yesterday?

10, 11, 4, 5 and he probably paired the 5 or was just off that number.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by philcski

10, 11, 4, 5 and he probably paired the 5 or was just off that number.

If they run in the Belmont he is gonna be finished. He needs a break. Yesterday he got the setup of the century and the only reason he won was because of his class. Smith was asking him from backside on. He should have won that race by open lengths.

If they give him 90 days, he is gonna be a real serious horse out in California next year, and can probably win the Malibu, a stallion making race. If they don't, I doubt he survives.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Scav

If they run in the Belmont he is gonna be finished. He needs a break. Yesterday he got the setup of the century and the only reason he won was because of his class. Smith was asking him from backside on. He should have won that race by open lengths.

If they give him 90 days, he is gonna be a real serious horse out in California next year, and can probably win the Malibu, a stallion making race. If they don't, I doubt he survives.

Didn't Alphie's Bet win the race by open lengths? Isn't his style completely reliant on getting a setup? I think you were listening to too much Simon Bray there after they hit the wire. The horse's lifetime top Beyer is 86.

As for the Malibu, can you give us a rundown of what top stallions the race has produced? Dixie Union won the race 10 years ago, but beyond him I'm at a loss.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by Scav

If they run in the Belmont he is gonna be finished. He needs a break. Yesterday he got the setup of the century and the only reason he won was because of his class. Smith was asking him from backside on. He should have won that race by open lengths.

If they give him 90 days, he is gonna be a real serious horse out in California next year, and can probably win the Malibu, a stallion making race. If they don't, I doubt he survives.

No, No, No.

He didn't get a good setup. The 2nd horse tried to wire and he ran him down. He did so without any help. Nothing in the field ever bid at the pacesetter. AB was the only horse running in the race. You could argue that there wasn't much in the race or that he probably won't get 12F but he ran well the other day and he did so against the setup.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Didn't Alphie's Bet win the race by open lengths? Isn't his style completely reliant on getting a setup? I think you were listening to too much Simon Bray there after they hit the wire. The horse's lifetime top Beyer is 86.

As for the Malibu, can you give us a rundown of what top stallions the race has produced? Dixie Union won the race 10 years ago, but beyond him I'm at a loss.

Since 2000
M One Rifle (still in training)
Bob Black Jack (just retired)
Johnny Eves (gelding)
Latent Heat (sire)
Proud Tower Too (??)
Rock Hard Ten (sire)
Southern Image (sire)
Debonair Joe (gelding)
Mizzen Mast (sire)
Dixie Union (sire)

Every horse that is "eligible" to be a sire that's won it stands for at least $5k (except Proud Tower Too, not sure what he's doing because they had that wacky return to training) so I'd agree with Tom that it qualifies as a stallion-making race.

I disagree with his assessment of the race, though.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by philcski

Since 2000
M One Rifle (still in training)
Bob Black Jack (just retired)
Johnny Eves (gelding)
Latent Heat (sire)
Proud Tower Too (??)
Rock Hard Ten (sire)
Southern Image (sire)
Debonair Joe (gelding)
Mizzen Mast (sire)
Dixie Union (sire)

Every horse that is "eligible" to be a sire that's won it stands for at least $5k (except Proud Tower Too, not sure what he's doing because they had that wacky return to training) so I'd agree with Tom that it qualifies as a stallion-making race.

I disagree with his assessment of the race, though.

What happens when we do a rundown of any grade 1 or grade 2 race open to intact horses?

I presumed by "stallion making", we meant big time stallions (or at least productive ones).

[philcski]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

What happens when we do a rundown of any grade 1 or grade 2 race open to intact horses?

I presumed by "stallion making", we meant big time stallions (or at least productive ones).

Dixie Union, Mizzen Mast, and Rock Hard Ten aren't productive at all?

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by philcski

Dixie Union, Mizzen Mast, and Rock Hard Ten aren't productive at all?

I admitted Dixie Union makes the grade and perhaps Mizzen Mast does too, though he's predominantly turf/synthetics which may not bode well in the long run. Otherwise its a long drink between top stallions. Next in line is Pleasant Tap, who is hardly consistent. Further back still, it is a pretty "dry" race as far as its winners go. Furthermore, is it the Malibu win that gets the breeders' pulse racing?

That aside, I think the label "stallion making race" is a bit overused, and virtually pointless, particularly if the qualifications are the ones you put forth (stands at stud for $5k or more). As I said, you can take any Grade 1 or Grade 2 for males and make that claim.

[Fulla Sheets]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

No, No, No.

He didn't get a good setup. The 2nd horse tried to wire and he ran him down. He did so without any help. Nothing in the field ever bid at the pacesetter. AB was the only horse running in the race. You could argue that there wasn't much in the race or that he probably won't get 12F but he ran well the other day and he did so against the setup.

There was also somewhat of a speed bias that day on the main track. Of the 8 races, 5 of them were won by a horse going gate to wire.